Nigeria’s Inflation Rate to Hit 14% in April – Analysts

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Based on our market survey, the year-on-year headline inflation is estimated to spike by 0.69% to 12.95% in April. If our projections are accurate, it will be the 8th consecutive monthly increase and the highest level in the last 2 years. Beyond the rising inflation trend, the slope of the curve is becoming steeper, after easing for 3 consecutive months. Our survey also points to a sharp increase in the month-on-month inflation (a more accurate measure of prices) to 1.56% (annualized at 20.38%) from 0.84% (annualized at 10.53%) in March. Policymakers will face tough choices between lowering the MPR to cushion the effect of the COVID-19 induced deterioration on macroeconomic conditions or increasing the MPR to stem rising inflationary pressures and reduce external imbalances.

IMF emergency support fund ($3.4bn) to support external reserves

However, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has approved a $3.4bn emergency support for Nigeria. This is in a bid to support the Federal Government’s effort in mitigating the severe economic impact of COVID-19 pandemic and the crash in oil prices. The FG also anticipates a $3.5bn support loan from the World Bank and the African Development Bank. This is expected to boost the gross external reserves which have lost approximately $14.33bn in the last 2 years. It will also provide some relief and support for the CBN in ensuring exchange rate stability.

Rising inflation is driven by the combined effect of COVID-19, lockdown measures and planting season

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The sharp increase in headline inflation can be largely attributed to both seasonal and structural shocks. The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered both demand and supply shocks. The on-going lockdown, business closure and movement restrictions have disrupted the commodity supply chain, creating shortages. Consumers spending pattern have also shifted towards essentials like food and data. This was compounded by the planting season and currency devaluation. The second quarter of the year is typically the planting season, which is characterized by reduced agric output

Higher logistics costs in spite of a fall in PMS price

Analysts had anticipated a sharp drop in the cost of logistics due to the 14.85% reduction in the retail price of PMS to N123.5 per litre. However, the scarcity of commercial transportation due to the restriction of movements has pushed up transportation costs by over 50%. The spillover effect was a spike in commodity prices. Core inflation is projected to increase by 0.17% to 9.9%.

Supply shortages due to the planting season and COVID-19 containment measures

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The current lockdown and movement restrictions coincide with the planting season, which typically commences in the second quarter of the year. The resulting decline in commodity supplies has filtered through to a sharp increase in commodity prices. Food inflation is expected to soar by 0.22% to 15.20% in April.

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Exchange rate induced imported inflation

In response to the crash in oil prices, the currency was adjusted to N360/$ and N380/$ at the official and I&E windows respectively. The exchange rate for import duty payment was also increased to N361/$ from N326/$. The immediate impact of this was a jump in the price of imported commodities. Imported inflation is estimated to rise to 16.3% from 16.2% in March.

Peer Comparison – Mixed movement in Inflation – 3 Reds, 3 Greens, 1 Amber

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The inflation trend across Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) was mixed. Three out of the SSA countries under our review recorded increases in March; three also posted declines while one was flat. The increase in Angola’s inflation rate was largely due to the devaluation of the Kwanza and the Covid-19 impact. Most of the SSA countries under our review are tilting more towards an accommodative monetary policy stance. This is to cushion the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on their respective economies. However, the spike in inflation coupled with the oil price crash and its resulting impact on external buffers have restrained some countries from embracing an accommodative monetary policy stance. Time will tell if ensuring price and exchange rate stability will overshadow the need to support the hampered domestic economy.

Concluding Thoughts

Inflationary pressures to heighten but aggregate demand will shrink

Inflationary pressures are expected to persist in the coming months due to the combined effects of the planting season, lockdown measures, border closure and exchange rate adjustments. Meanwhile, there will be a reduction in aggregate demand and a shift in consumption pattern towards essentials as consumers respond to reduced disposable income. This is because recessions are typically accompanied by salary cuts and huge staff layoffs.

N850bn domestic borrowing likely to have a neutral effect on private investments

The Senate has approved the conversion of the N850bn external loan to domestic borrowing. This is due to the negative impact of COVID-19 virus on the global economy and financial markets as well as the crash in oil prices. Typically, increased government borrowing from the domestic economy usually crowds out private investment. This is because the yield on government securities usually increases to attract investors. However, the LDR directives by the CBN could help cushion the crowding-out effect on the private sector as banks are mandated to meet the threshold.

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Nigeria’s Inflation Rate to Hit 14% in April - Analysts - Brand SpurNigeria’s Inflation Rate to Hit 14% in April - Analysts - Brand Spur

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Nigeria’s Inflation Rate to Hit 14% in April - Analysts - Brand SpurNigeria’s Inflation Rate to Hit 14% in April - Analysts - Brand Spur

Latest News

Next Meats, Purveyor of the World’s First Plant-based Yakiniku Meats, Is Now in Singapore

The Tokyo-based startup makes its debut in the alt-protein hotspot of Singapore

 

  • Next Meats has collaborated with Aburi-EN to deliver two new meal sets
  • Made with soybean proteins, the Kalbi contains no chemical additives or animal ingredients


SINGAPORE - Media OutReach - 14 April 2021 - Next Meats, a purveyor of the world's first plant-based yakiniku meats, is making its debut in the alternative protein hotspot, Singapore! The Japanese alternative meat company has collaborated this time with popular Japanese restaurant Aburi-EN, which will offer two types of set meals using the NEXT Kalbi (boneless short rib) for the very first time. Made largely from soy proteins, the NEXT Kalbi contains double the amount of protein and half the fats than that of regular meat and even more, it does not contain any chemical additives or cholesterol due to its lack of animal ingredients. Now, Singaporeans can enjoy yakiniku without the guilt!


Nigeria’s Inflation Rate to Hit 14% in April - Analysts - Brand Spur

From left to right: Premium Kalbi Don Set and Stamina Teishouku Set

The two new menus available at Aburi-EN are the Kalbi Don Set (S$13.80) and the Stamina Teishoku (S$15.80) — which are available for a limited time only. Next Meats has specifically chosen to work with Aburi-EN as they are a Japanese grilled-meat specialist. The two menus are the culmination of many months of research and development, and they will also be Aburi-EN's first-ever plant-based dishes.


Nigeria’s Inflation Rate to Hit 14% in April - Analysts - Brand Spur

For the Kalbi Don Set, Next Meat's Kalbi is grilled and served atop a bowl of fragrant Japanese steamed rice. Equally indulgent, the Stamina Teishoku features the Kalbi stir-fried with cabbage along with egg imported from Okinawa. The meat is then served with fragrant Japanese steamed rice, salad, pickles and miso soup. For both dishes, the meats are glazed with a special homemade sauce that packs an irresistible umami punch.

Both the Kalbi Don Set and Stamina Teishoku will be available at all Aburi-EN stores from April to July 2021.

An advocate of sustainable food production and better food security

The NEXT Kalbi is one of Next Meats' innovative offerings, which includes other plant-based delicacies such as the NEXT burger and NEXT gyudon (beef bowl). The company champions the importance of saving the planet and humanity through reducing the emission of greenhouse gases (which is produced from meat consumption and animal agriculture) and utilizing biotechnology to combat protein deficiency.

Through extensive research and development, Next Meats has culminated the knowhow on using molecular binding to mould vegetable proteins from powder. Buoyed by state-of-the-art, proprietary technologies, the company has successfully created vegan substitutes that replicate the texture of real meat.

About Next Meats

Hailing from Tokyo, Next Meats is a food-tech venture company that specialises in the research and development of Japanese-style alternative meat products. Its journey of product development began in 2017, and the company was officially established in 2020. Its portfolio of products includes plant-based burger patties, gyudon and yakiniku meats.

Social Media for Next Meats

Facebook: /nextmeats.singapore

Instagram: @nextmeats_singapore

Hashtags: #nextmeats #nextmeats_sg #japaneseplantbased


About Aburi-EN

Aburi-EN is Singapore's leading Japanese Grill restaurant chain, best known for delicious high quality grilled donburi bowls. Signature dishes include the Premium Buta Don with grilled chestnut-fed pork, Wagyu Karubi Don, and the Wagyu Stamina Don, made using A4/A5 Miyazaki Wagyu, which has won Japan's "National Wagyu Award" for 3 consecutive years, among many others. The homemade sauces give the meats and dishes an extra umami-ness. Aburi-EN is also known for affordable highballs and Japanese sours, which pair perfectly with the Aburi dishes.

Social Media for Aburi-EN

Facebook: /aburiensg

Instagram: @aburien.sg

Hashtags: #aburiensg #aburiendonburi #aburienjapanesegrill

Outlets

- Isetan Scotts:

350 Orchard Rd, #01-K1 Shaw House, Singapore 238868

- Causeway Point

1 Woodlands Square, #02-09B Causeway Point, Singapore 738099

- Jem

50 Jurong Gateway Rd, #01-04 Jem, Singapore 608549

- Vivo City

1 Harbourfront Walk, #01-159/160 VivoCity, Singapore 098585

- Novena Square

238 Thomson Rd, #01-89/90, Singapore 307683

- Guoco Tower

1 Wallich St, #B2 - 09, Singapore 078884

- Orchard Central

181 Orchard Central, Central, #01-16 Orchard, 238896

- Suntec City

3 Temasek Blvd, #B1-121 Suntec City Mall, Singapore 038983

- Nex

23 Serangoon Central, #01-63/64/65 Nex, Singapore 556083

Operating Hours

11am – 10pm, Daily

Nigeria’s Inflation Rate to Hit 14% in April - Analysts - Brand Spur
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