In the first quarter of 2020, Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 1.87%(year-on-year) in real terms. This performance was recorded against the backdrop of significant global disruptions resulting from the COVID-19 public health crisis, a sharp fall in oil prices and restricted international trade.
The performance recorded in Q1 2020 represents a drop of -0.23% points compared to Q1 2019 and -0.68% points compared to Q4 2019, reflecting the earliest effects of the disruption, particularly on the non-oil economy.
Quarter on quarter, real GDP growth was -14.27% compared to 5.59% recorded in the preceding quarter.
In the quarter under review, aggregate GDP stood at N35,647,406.08 million in nominal terms. This performance was higher when compared to the first quarter of 2019 which recorded N31,824,349.67 million, with a nominal growth rate of 12.01% year on year.
Relative to the first quarter of 2019, the nominal growth rate was higher by 0.11% points but lower than the preceding quarter by -0.32% points. For better clarity, the Nigerian economy has been classified broadly into the oil and non-oil sectors.
The Oil Sector
During the first quarter of 2020, average daily oil production of 2.07 million barrels per day (mbd) was recorded. The production level was higher than the 1.99mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2019 by 0.08mbpd and the fourth quarter of 2019 by 0.06mbpd.
The oil sector recorded a real growth rate of 5.06% (year-on-year) in Q1 2020 indicating an increase of 6.51% points relative to the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2019.
However, growth decreased by -1.30% points when compared to Q4 2019 which was 6.36%. Quarter-on-quarter, the oil sector recorded a growth rate of 11.30% in Q1 2020.
The Oil sector contributed 9.50% to aggregate real GDP in Q1 2020, up from figures recorded in the corresponding period of 2019 and the preceding quarter, as the share of the non-oil economy declined.
The Non-Oil Sector
The non-oil sector grew by 1.55% in real terms during the reference quarter (Q1 2020). This was slower by -0.93% points compared to the rate recorded during the same quarter of 2019, and -0.72% points slower than the fourth quarter of 2019.
The non-oil sector was driven mainly by Information and Communication (Telecommunications), Financial and Insurance (Financial Institutions), Agriculture (Crop Production), Mining and Quarrying (Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas), and Construction.
In real terms, the Non-Oil sector contributed 90.50% to the nation’s GDP in the first quarter of 2020, less than its share in the first quarter of 2019 which was 90.78% and the fourth quarter of 2019 recorded as 92.68%. Activities that witnessed weaker performance relative to Q1 2019 include Quarrying, Road transport, Accommodation and Food Services as well as real estate.