The Nigerian Q2 GDP Covid Contraction & 2020 Forecasts

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The COVID-19 Quarter

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) recently released Nigeria’s GDP growth numbers for the second quarter (Q2) of 2020. Expectedly, real GDP contracted by 6.10% year-on-year in Q2, a sharp drop in output from the 1.87% year-on-year growth rate recorded in Q1. This represents the worst contraction since the Nigerian economy exited recession in Q2 2017. The sharp contraction was driven by the distortions in economic activities and the collapse in oil prices during the second quarter as a result of lockdown measures implemented both domestically and internationally owing to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Nigerian Q2 GDP Covid Contraction & 2020 Forecasts - Brand Spur

Oil GDP: Nigeria Records Average Oil Production of 1.81 million barrels per day in Q2 2020.

The oil sector GDP contracted by 6.63% year-on-year in Q2 2020, a sharp fall compared to the preceding quarter in which the oil sector grew by 5.06% year-on-year. The contraction in oil GDP was due to the dual decline in production volumes and crude oil prices recorded during the quarter. Notably, oil production dipped by 0.26mbpd from an average of 2.07mbpd recorded in Q1 2020 to 1.81mbpd in Q2 2020, representing a decline in production volume of circa 14%. The global oil market was pushed to the doldrums at the onset of Q2, with Brent crude price, a major global benchmark averaging $29.7 per barrel over the quarter as compared to the $50.3 per barrel average price recorded in Q1.

In terms of contribution to overall GDP, the oil sector accounted for 8.93%. This is a decline compared to the 9.50% contribution recorded in Q1 2020 and 8.82% in Q2 2019.

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The Nigerian Q2 GDP Covid Contraction & 2020 Forecasts - Brand Spur

Non-Oil GDP: First Decline since Q3 2017

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The non-oil sector witnessed a 6.05% contraction in Q2 2020, the first negative growth experienced in the non-oil segment of the GDP since Q3 2017. The non-oil sector accounted for 91.07% of overall GDP in Q2 2020, a slight increase compared to the share recorded in Q1 2020 of 90.5%.The largest contractions were witnessed in Transport and Storage, with a negative growth of 49.23%, Accommodation and Food services at -40.2%, Construction at -31.77% and Real Estate at -21.99% year-on-year. The contractions in these sectors were largely driven by the effects of the lockdown measures especially with the ban on interstate travel (road and air) which affected local commute, travel and hotel lodging services.

Sectors that remained resilient over the quarter include Information and Communication Technology (ICT), which recorded a growth rate of 15.09% year-on-year, driven by the Telecoms and Broadcast sub-segments with growth rates of 18.1% and 8.78% respectively; Finance and Insurance also expanded by 18.49% year-on-year and Agriculture recorded a positive but tepid growth rate of 1.58%. The ICT sector has emerged the brightest spot in this pandemic as the lockdown of Nigeria’s largest cities– Lagos and Abuja led to the adoption of remote work and virtual engagements for large sections of corporates in these cities. This led to increased consumption of broadband data services by the labour force for these virtual engagements. We believe this trend will subsist for the rest of 2020 as the work-from-home trend still remains increasingly popular even after the easing of lockdown measures.

Outlook: Q2 2020 – Is the Worst It Gets For the Year?

We note that for the greater part of Q2 2020, restrictions were in place limiting economic activities and movement of goods and people both within and outside the country. The first phase of the lockdown, which began on March 30, lasted five weeks with the President enacting a shutdown of all but essential activities in the nation’s economic powerhouses including the commercial capital of Lagos, the neighbouring state of Ogun, and the Federal Capital Territory[1]. Subsequently, the key commercial hub in the north – Kano State was added to the list on account of rising infection and mortality rates. Interstate travel was suspended, and some State governments also enacted lockdown measures within their states including Kaduna, and Rivers State. The global oil market was equally pushed to the doldrums at the onset of Q2, with oil prices descending to unprecedented lows in April 2020. Consequently, we opine that Q2 GDP numbers capture the full magnitude of the pandemic-induced downturn in the Nigerian economy.

Read Also:  Capital Importation: FPIs Inflows Up 3.6x In 2017

Although some reprieve is expected as economic activities pick up with the gradual phasing out of lockdowns and the improvement in the global oil market, significant downside risks remain. While we note that Nigeria’s oil production is limited by the 1.4mbpd cap (exclusive of condensates) as part of the OPEC+ alliance agreement, we expect the gradual recovery in crude oil prices from their lows in Q2 to provide some respite to oil GDP in subsequent quarters. Similarly, measures such as the easing of lockdowns and opening up of the country for travel are expected to support non-oil GDP.

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The outlook remains tapered in view of Nigeria’s persistent foreign exchange shortages, amidst the fragile oil market and reform inertia on the part of the government. There’s an estimated $7 billion of unmet dollar demand – with the backlog comprising of a $2 billion demand by manufacturers and $5 billion by foreign investors seeking to exit the Nigerian market.[2] The reluctance to push ahead with tough reforms such as unifying the exchange rates is weighing heavily on sentiment, with the Wold Bank delaying its approval of Nigeria’s $1.5 billion loan request until October[3]. Our view is that foreign exchange shortages will persist throughout the second half of the year, inhibiting growth as manufacturers increasingly struggle to source sufficient dollars to pay for imports – even as activities pick up.

We are cautiously optimistic that Q2-2020 could turn out to be the worst it gets for the year, and also note the relative resilience of the Nigerian economy during the quarter, compared to several economies: The US suffered a downturn of 9.5% year-on-year in Q2[4], while the UK economy plunged by 21.7% year-on-year in Q2[5] and the Euro Area printed a -15% growth year-on-year in Q2[6]. We believe that Nigeria’s growth rate reflects the relatively lax implementation of lockdown measures across the country, especially in States outside of the nation’s economic powerhouses. Avoiding the worst of the pandemic in terms of infections and mortality has also helped mitigate the contractions while buoying consumer confidence ahead of the second half.

Overall, the -6.10% growth rate recorded in Q2 brings half year 2020 GDP growth rate to -2.18%. At Agusto & Co., we maintain our forecast scenarios of -4.5% in the best-case and -7% in the worst-case for full year 2020.

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The Nigerian Q2 GDP Covid Contraction & 2020 Forecasts - Brand Spur

First integrated green building cloud data platform launched in Hong Kong

iBEAM to assess 450,000 building and sustainable development project data every year

 

HONG KONG SAR - Media OutReach - 13 May 2021 - BEAM Society Limited ("BSL") announces today the launch of iBEAM – the first-ever locally developed integrated green building cloud data platform in Hong Kong. iBEAM is capable of analysing 450,000 entries of project data related to built environment and sustainable development every year, which would turn into a data warehouse for the prediction of green building development trends and making visionary suggestions for implementing sustainable development in the industry. iBEAM also enables paperless assessment workflow through uploading all building data to a single cloud platform, which enhances transparency, security and integrity of the assessment process while reducing carbon emission, contributing to a greener built environment in Hong Kong.

Data warehouse advocates green building development, provides concrete solutions and creates benefits for the public

The rising awareness on environmental protection and sustainable development has drawn increasing public attention to the overall quality of the built environment. In 2010, "BEAM Plus", a leading, impartial assessment tool designed for the sustainability performance of buildings in Hong Kong was first launched by BSL. BEAM Plus assesses the sustainability of buildings during planning, design, construction, testing, commissioning, management, operation, and maintenance stages. Assessment results are recognised and certified by the Hong Kong Green Building Council. To date, BEAM Plus has certified green building developments encompassing over 18.6 million square metres of space, equivalent to over 2.5 square metres per capita. BEAM Plus is one of the most widely used voluntary green building labelling schemes of its kind in the world on a per capita basis.

Ms Ivy LEE Siu Wing, Chairperson of BSL, shares, "iBEAM will be the first-ever 24/7 project assessment submission platform in Hong Kong. It enables BSL to streamline BEAM Plus assessment process, enhances BEAM Pro experience and its efficiency, and upholds the core values of BSL – integrity, consistency and transparency.

iBEAM is a new generation platform that collects, manages, standardises, submits, reports, discloses and processes data related to built environment and sustainable development. Its major features include:

Intelligent integration platform: With customisable user interface and settings, this platform enables project teams to share information and manage workflow. Where necessary, participating parties can download the data collected for other purposes such as submission of Environmental, Social and Corporate Governance (ESG) reports, and as benchmark data necessary for the application of green finance investments. In the long run, iBEAM will contribute to building a smarter, greener and more resilient city as envisioned in the HK2030+ and the Hong Kong Smart City Blueprint 2.0.

Paperless cloud platform: After uploading the data to the cloud portal, project teams can update or retrieve them by logging in the portal round the clock anywhere. The platform also enables paperless e-form submission of data for archiving and real time processing at both multiple and centralised ends.

Reliable and consistent security platform: After receiving data uploaded by project teams, the platform will automatically execute the approval process and match with assessors, raising the transparency, security and integrity of assessments. iBEAM also centralises and securely executes workflow, from data collection, approval, to online management of BEAM Plus assessment fee.

Mr LIU Chun San, JP, Under Secretary for Development, mentions, "BEAM Society, has been a close partner of the Government to promote green building environment ever since her establishment in the 1990s. The development and adoption of iBEAM is most welcome by the Development Bureau. iBEAM aligns with and supports our two major visions: to develop smart, green and resilient new towns; and Construction 2.0 in adopting innovation including digitalization technology for the construction industry."

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Mr Frankie So, Chairperson of iBEAM Project Steering Committee, mentions, "We anticipate an annual uptake of 10,000 users and 200 building assessment applications after the launch of iBEAM, with growth in subsequent years. The system can process 450,000 entries of data from built environment and sustainable development projects every year, and analyse big data such as Green Building Attributes, Management, Site Aspects, Materials and Waste, Energy Use, Water Use, Indoor Environmental Quality, Innovations and Additions, Community Aspects and Outdoor Environmental Quality. It will empower a greener built environment in Hong Kong and create benefits for the public."

Consultations and experience workshops obtain recognition from the industry

BSL commenced the development of iBEAM in April 2020. 5 engagement talks were held throughout the development stage, garnering more than 1,100 industry participations and constructive feedback. Before the launch of iBEAM, BSL has organised the iBEAM Xperience Studio, an experiential workshop that engaged over 100 construction professionals and 14 consultancy firms in the industry.

Ms Ivy LEE adds, "iBEAM is a part of a bigger green building journey. Looking ahead, BSL will continue to work closely with the governments of the Greater Bay Area and Hong Kong, as well as our strategic partners, professional and educational institutes. Working hand in hand, we will create a sustainable and liveable environment for mankind."

Please click HERE to download the event photos


Photo 1

(From Left to Right)Mr. So Hung Fai, Frankie, Chairperson of iBEAM Project Steering Committee ,Ms. Guo Jianhua, Director of Department of Educational Scientific & Technological Affairs from the Liaison Office of the Central People's Government in Hong Kong SAR, Mr. Liu Chun San, JP, Under Secretary for Development, Ms. Lee Siu Wing, Ivy, Chairperson of BEAM Society Limited and Sr Prof Wong Bay, Past Chairman of HKGBC officiated at the "Beyond Green with iBEAM" Launch Ceremony.


Photo 2

Ms. Lee Siu Wing, Ivy, Chairperson of BEAM Society Limited said iBEAM is a part of a bigger green building journey. Looking ahead, BSL will continue to work closely with different parties to create a sustainable and liveable environment for mankind.


Photo 3

Mr. Liu Chun San, JP, Under Secretary for Development pointed out BEAM Society Limited has been a close partner of the Government to promote green building environment ever. The development and adoption of iBEAM is most welcome by the Development Bureau.


Photo 4

Mr. So Hung Fai, Frankie, Chairperson of iBEAM Project Steering Committee believed big data will empower a greener built environment in Hong Kong and create benefits for the public.


Photo 5

BEAM Society Limited today(13 May)announced the launch of a pioneering locally developed integrated green building cloud data platform in Hong Kong and the iBEAM launch ceremony was held virtually on the same day.


Photo 6

Group Photo of the Launch Ceremony

About BEAM Society Limited (BSL)

BEAM Society Limited (BSL) is a non-profit organization. Since the development of Building Environmental Assessment Method (BEAM) in 1996, and BEAM Plus in 2010, BSL has committed to administering and developing the BEAM Assessment Tools, offering impartial assessment on building sustainability and training BEAM practitioners - BEAM Professionals (BEAM Pro) and BEAM Affiliates. BSL has become a public body under the Prevention of Bribery Ordinance since 2016.

BSL has committed to improving the overall quality of the built environment in Hong Kong. BEAM assessment tools available include: BEAM Plus New Buildings, BEAM Plus Existing Buildings, BEAM Plus Interior and BEAM Plus Neighbourhood. They assess the impact of overall planning, design, construction and maintenance on the environment.

To get more information about BSL, please visit www.beamsociety.org.hk


#BEAMSocietyLimited #BSL

The Nigerian Q2 GDP Covid Contraction & 2020 Forecasts - Brand Spur
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Latest News

First integrated green building cloud data platform launched in Hong Kong

iBEAM to assess 450,000 building and sustainable development project data every year

 

HONG KONG SAR - Media OutReach - 13 May 2021 - BEAM Society Limited ("BSL") announces today the launch of iBEAM – the first-ever locally developed integrated green building cloud data platform in Hong Kong. iBEAM is capable of analysing 450,000 entries of project data related to built environment and sustainable development every year, which would turn into a data warehouse for the prediction of green building development trends and making visionary suggestions for implementing sustainable development in the industry. iBEAM also enables paperless assessment workflow through uploading all building data to a single cloud platform, which enhances transparency, security and integrity of the assessment process while reducing carbon emission, contributing to a greener built environment in Hong Kong.

Data warehouse advocates green building development, provides concrete solutions and creates benefits for the public

The rising awareness on environmental protection and sustainable development has drawn increasing public attention to the overall quality of the built environment. In 2010, "BEAM Plus", a leading, impartial assessment tool designed for the sustainability performance of buildings in Hong Kong was first launched by BSL. BEAM Plus assesses the sustainability of buildings during planning, design, construction, testing, commissioning, management, operation, and maintenance stages. Assessment results are recognised and certified by the Hong Kong Green Building Council. To date, BEAM Plus has certified green building developments encompassing over 18.6 million square metres of space, equivalent to over 2.5 square metres per capita. BEAM Plus is one of the most widely used voluntary green building labelling schemes of its kind in the world on a per capita basis.

Ms Ivy LEE Siu Wing, Chairperson of BSL, shares, "iBEAM will be the first-ever 24/7 project assessment submission platform in Hong Kong. It enables BSL to streamline BEAM Plus assessment process, enhances BEAM Pro experience and its efficiency, and upholds the core values of BSL – integrity, consistency and transparency.

iBEAM is a new generation platform that collects, manages, standardises, submits, reports, discloses and processes data related to built environment and sustainable development. Its major features include:

Intelligent integration platform: With customisable user interface and settings, this platform enables project teams to share information and manage workflow. Where necessary, participating parties can download the data collected for other purposes such as submission of Environmental, Social and Corporate Governance (ESG) reports, and as benchmark data necessary for the application of green finance investments. In the long run, iBEAM will contribute to building a smarter, greener and more resilient city as envisioned in the HK2030+ and the Hong Kong Smart City Blueprint 2.0.

Paperless cloud platform: After uploading the data to the cloud portal, project teams can update or retrieve them by logging in the portal round the clock anywhere. The platform also enables paperless e-form submission of data for archiving and real time processing at both multiple and centralised ends.

Reliable and consistent security platform: After receiving data uploaded by project teams, the platform will automatically execute the approval process and match with assessors, raising the transparency, security and integrity of assessments. iBEAM also centralises and securely executes workflow, from data collection, approval, to online management of BEAM Plus assessment fee.

Mr LIU Chun San, JP, Under Secretary for Development, mentions, "BEAM Society, has been a close partner of the Government to promote green building environment ever since her establishment in the 1990s. The development and adoption of iBEAM is most welcome by the Development Bureau. iBEAM aligns with and supports our two major visions: to develop smart, green and resilient new towns; and Construction 2.0 in adopting innovation including digitalization technology for the construction industry."

Mr Frankie So, Chairperson of iBEAM Project Steering Committee, mentions, "We anticipate an annual uptake of 10,000 users and 200 building assessment applications after the launch of iBEAM, with growth in subsequent years. The system can process 450,000 entries of data from built environment and sustainable development projects every year, and analyse big data such as Green Building Attributes, Management, Site Aspects, Materials and Waste, Energy Use, Water Use, Indoor Environmental Quality, Innovations and Additions, Community Aspects and Outdoor Environmental Quality. It will empower a greener built environment in Hong Kong and create benefits for the public."

Consultations and experience workshops obtain recognition from the industry

BSL commenced the development of iBEAM in April 2020. 5 engagement talks were held throughout the development stage, garnering more than 1,100 industry participations and constructive feedback. Before the launch of iBEAM, BSL has organised the iBEAM Xperience Studio, an experiential workshop that engaged over 100 construction professionals and 14 consultancy firms in the industry.

Ms Ivy LEE adds, "iBEAM is a part of a bigger green building journey. Looking ahead, BSL will continue to work closely with the governments of the Greater Bay Area and Hong Kong, as well as our strategic partners, professional and educational institutes. Working hand in hand, we will create a sustainable and liveable environment for mankind."

Please click HERE to download the event photos


Photo 1

(From Left to Right)Mr. So Hung Fai, Frankie, Chairperson of iBEAM Project Steering Committee ,Ms. Guo Jianhua, Director of Department of Educational Scientific & Technological Affairs from the Liaison Office of the Central People's Government in Hong Kong SAR, Mr. Liu Chun San, JP, Under Secretary for Development, Ms. Lee Siu Wing, Ivy, Chairperson of BEAM Society Limited and Sr Prof Wong Bay, Past Chairman of HKGBC officiated at the "Beyond Green with iBEAM" Launch Ceremony.


Photo 2

Ms. Lee Siu Wing, Ivy, Chairperson of BEAM Society Limited said iBEAM is a part of a bigger green building journey. Looking ahead, BSL will continue to work closely with different parties to create a sustainable and liveable environment for mankind.


Photo 3

Mr. Liu Chun San, JP, Under Secretary for Development pointed out BEAM Society Limited has been a close partner of the Government to promote green building environment ever. The development and adoption of iBEAM is most welcome by the Development Bureau.


Photo 4

Mr. So Hung Fai, Frankie, Chairperson of iBEAM Project Steering Committee believed big data will empower a greener built environment in Hong Kong and create benefits for the public.


Photo 5

BEAM Society Limited today(13 May)announced the launch of a pioneering locally developed integrated green building cloud data platform in Hong Kong and the iBEAM launch ceremony was held virtually on the same day.


Photo 6

Group Photo of the Launch Ceremony

About BEAM Society Limited (BSL)

BEAM Society Limited (BSL) is a non-profit organization. Since the development of Building Environmental Assessment Method (BEAM) in 1996, and BEAM Plus in 2010, BSL has committed to administering and developing the BEAM Assessment Tools, offering impartial assessment on building sustainability and training BEAM practitioners - BEAM Professionals (BEAM Pro) and BEAM Affiliates. BSL has become a public body under the Prevention of Bribery Ordinance since 2016.

BSL has committed to improving the overall quality of the built environment in Hong Kong. BEAM assessment tools available include: BEAM Plus New Buildings, BEAM Plus Existing Buildings, BEAM Plus Interior and BEAM Plus Neighbourhood. They assess the impact of overall planning, design, construction and maintenance on the environment.

To get more information about BSL, please visit www.beamsociety.org.hk


#BEAMSocietyLimited #BSL

The Nigerian Q2 GDP Covid Contraction & 2020 Forecasts - Brand Spur
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