Nigeria’s Inflation Rate Drops to 18.12% in April – First Decline in 20 Months

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Headline Inflation declines by 18.12% In April 2021, 0.05% Lower Than March 2021 Rate

The consumer price index, (CPI) which measures the inflation rate dropped to 18.12 percent in April from 18.17 in March. This is 0.05 percent points lower than the rate recorded in March 2021 (18.17) percent.

On a month-on-month basis, the Headline index decreased by 0.97 percent in April 2021, this is 0.59 percent rate lower than the rate recorded in March 2021 (1.56) percent.

The percentage change in the average composite CPI for the twelve months period ending April 2021 over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve months period was 15.04 percent, showing 0.48 percent point from 14.55 percent recorded in March 2021.

The urban inflation rate decreased by 18.68 percent (year-on-year) in April 2021 from 18.76 percent recorded in March 2021, while the rural inflation rate decreased by 17.57 percent in April 2021 from 17.60 percent in March 2021.

On a month-on-month basis, the urban index rose by 0.99 percent in April 2021, down by 0.61 the rate recorded in March 2021 (1.60), while the rural index also rose by 0.95 percent in April 2021, down by 0.57 the rate that was recorded in March 2021 (1.52) percent.

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The corresponding twelve-month year-on-year average percentage change for the urban index is 15.63 percent in April 2021. This is higher than 15.15 percent reported in March 2021, while the corresponding rural inflation rate in April 2021 is 14.48 percent compared to 13.99 percent recorded in March 2021.

Food Index

The composite food index fell by 22.72 percent in April 2021 compared to 22.95 percent in March 2021. This rise in the food index was caused by increases in prices of Coffee, tea and cocoa, Bread and cereals, Soft drinks, Milk, cheese and egg, Vegetable, Meat, Oils and fats, Fish and Potatoes, yam and other tubers.

On a month-on-month basis, the food sub-index increased by 0.99 percent in April 2021, down by 0.91 percent points from 1.90 percent recorded in March 2021.

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The average annual rate of change of the Food sub-index for the twelve-month period ending April 2021 over the previous twelve-month average was 18.58  percent, 0.65  percent points from the average annual rate of change recorded in March 2021 (17.93) percent.

All Items Less Farm Produce

The “All items less farm produce” or Core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produce stood at 12.74 percent in April 2021, up by 0.07 percent when compared with 12.67 percent recorded in March 2021.

Read Also:  Inflation increases by 11.37% in April 2019; 0.12% higher than March 2019 Rate

On a month-on-month basis, the core sub-index increased by 0.99 percent in April 2021. This was down by 0.07 percent when compared with 1.06 percent recorded in March 2021.

The highest increases were recorded in prices of Pharmaceutical products, Vehicle spare parts, Hairdressing salons and personal grooming establishment,  Garments, Furniture and furnishing, Medical services, Shoes and other footwears, Motor cars, Major household appliances whether electric or not, Dental services, Hospital services, Non-durable household goods and Fuel and lubricants for personal transport equipment.

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The average 12-month annual rate of change of the index was 11.25 percent for the twelve-month period ending April 2021; this is 0.24 percent points higher than the 11.01 percent recorded in March 2021.

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State Profiles

In analysing price movements under this section, note that the CPI is weighted by consumption expenditure patterns which differ across states. Accordingly, the weight assigned to a particular food or non-food item may differ from state to state making interstate comparisons of consumption basket inadvisable and potentially misleading.

All Items Inflation

In April 2021, all items inflation on year on year basis was highest in Kogi (24.33%), Bauchi (22.93%) and Sokoto (20.96%), while Abia (15.94%), Kwara (15.70%) and Katsina (15.58%) recorded the slowest rise in headline Year on Year inflation.

On month on month basis, however, in April  2021 all items inflation was highest in Kebbi  (2.24%), Cross River (1.99%) and Jigawa (1.78%), while Ebonyi (0.12%) recorded the slowest rise in headline month on month with River and Ogun recording price deflation or negative inflation (general decrease in the general price level of food or a negative food inflation rate).

Food Inflation

In April 2021, food inflation on a year on year basis was highest in Kogi (30.52%), Ebonyi (28.07%) and Sokoto (26.90%), while Abuja (18.63%), Akwa Ibom (18.51%) and Bauchi (17.64%) recorded the slowest rise in year on year inflation.

On month on month basis, however, April 2021 food inflation was highest in Kebbi (2.46%), Ekiti (2.42%) and Kano (2.17%), while Abuja (0.05%) recorded the slowest rise in a month on month food inflation with Rivers and Ogun recording price deflation or negative inflation (general decrease in the general price level of food or a negative food inflation rate).

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