Nigeria ranks among commonwealth’s top 15 for youth AI readiness – as major study reveals potential US$5.2 billion GDP boost and youth jobs opportunity
Nigeria joins just three African countries above AI readiness benchmark as government-backed training programmes help young people develop skills for jobs and business.
- Nigeria ranks 15th of 56 Commonwealth countries, scoring 54.5 out of 100 against the study’s youth AI readiness benchmark of 53.
- Nigeria is one of only three African Commonwealth countries to meet the benchmark, alongside Mauritius and South Africa; just 15 members qualify across the Commonwealth.
- Around 90% of young Nigerian expect to use AI for education or work within the following year – the highest reported share in the Index.
- The study calculates a potential AI-related increase in the level of GDP after ten years of US$5.234 billion, rising to US$7.851 billion in the optimistic case.
Nigeria has secured a place among just 15 Commonwealth countries meeting a new youth AI readiness benchmark, ranking 15th out of 56 nations in a major study unveiled at the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Antigua and Barbuda. Only two other African Commonwealth members – Mauritius and South Africa – make the cut.
The Ayre Index, the first comparative assessment of the conditions affecting young people’s readiness to benefit from artificial intelligence across all 56 Commonwealth countries, scores Nigeria 54.5 out of 100 against the benchmark of 53. Nigeria is the final country above that line; 41 members fall below it.
The inaugural White Paper by the think tank established by the Antiguan-Canadian philanthropist Calvin Ayre brings together 1,128 research sources to examine the opportunities facing approximately 732 million young people aged 15 to 29.
The findings are particularly encouraging for Nigeria, which has approximately 65.7 million young people aged 15 to 29. Some 90% of young Nigerian respondents in the research expected to use AI for education or work within the following year, the highest reported share in the Index, while 67.8% said they felt confident controlling their interactions with the technology. Nigeria scores 8.7 out of 10 in the Index for motivation and confidence – a powerful indication of young people’s appetite to participate in the AI economy.
Nigeria also performs strongly in work-based learning. Around 84 in every 1,000 young Nigerians were recorded in apprenticeships, internships or traineeships – the highest rate among the 31 Commonwealth countries with comparable data. In a separate international survey of university students aged 18 to 29 who already used ChatGPT, 47.8% of Nigerian respondents were found to say they often or always used it to find information for research papers, the highest share among the countries in that comparison.
Despite these encouraging findings, Nigeria scores just 0.8 out of 10 for digital, data, media and AI capability under the Index’s selected measures. This score relies mainly on a household survey measuring conventional computer skills, such as installing software and writing computer programs, rather than young people’s current ability to use AI. The study also records widespread informal employment and relatively few 25 to 29-year-olds in high-skill occupations. The challenge now is to turn young Nigerians’ enthusiasm and entrepreneurial energy into practical skills, successful businesses and more secure jobs.
The potential economic benefits of AI are considerable for Nigeria. Applying scenarios developed by the International Monetary Fund to the country’s economy, researchers calculate that AI could increase the level of Nigeria’s GDP by US$5.234 billion after ten years under their moderate scenario. The conservative estimate is US$2.617 billion, rising to US$7.851 billion in the optimistic case.
Calvin Ayre, founder of the Ayre Think Tank, said: “I’ve spent my life in businesses where new technology changes everything, and I know you can’t stand still. AI is going to change how we work, how we do business and how wealth is created. But this is not a race that only the biggest or richest countries can win. What matters is giving young people the skills and the chance to get ahead – whether to start businesses, find jobs or build something for themselves. Some Commonwealth countries are ahead, others have catching up to do. Nobody can afford to be complacent. That’s why we created this Index. It shows countries where they stand, what they’re getting right and where they need to do better. Governments now have to decide what they’re going to do about it.”
Nigeria is already taking steps to turn its enthusiasm for technology into employment and business opportunities. The government’s 3 Million Technical Talent (3MTT) programme is training Nigerians in digital skills including AI and machine learning, with a new partnership network launched in March 2026. In August, the government and Meta also launched AI Academy Nigeria to provide practical AI training, technical support and opportunities for startups.
In September 2026, the government also launched a National AI Innovation Challenge, encouraging Nigerian developers, universities and startups to build practical applications using N-ATLAS, an AI model supporting Yoruba, Hausa, Igbo and Nigerian English. These initiatives will help develop local technology and businesses, while stronger links between training, employers and investment will help turn Nigeria’s technological strengths into successful enterprises, better jobs and rising incomes.
The White Paper identifies five priorities: affordable and reliable access to technology; education that develops practical skills; stronger routes from training into employment and enterprise; AI tools suited to local languages and needs; and safeguards that enable young people to question automated decisions.
It calls on governments, educators and development partners to better understand the particular barriers young people face in each country before deciding where investment can make the greatest impact.
Professor C. Justin Robinson, Pro Vice-Chancellor and Campus Principal of the University of the West Indies, Five Islands Campus, said: “We need to make sure that the next generation will be able to do more than just consume AI products made elsewhere. Access must come with its own agency and a real equitable stake in how these systems are governed. Young people should be equipped to question these new tools, to improve them and to be supported in building alternatives suited to their own needs. Whether that happens, will depend on choices made now. This index gives a clearer view of where those choices are most urgent. We should use it.”
The White Paper, The Ayre Index: The 2026 Commonwealth Youth AI Readiness Index, can be downloaded here:
White Paper for media distribution
Photos, logos and graphics for publication including a graphic card for every country featured on the list (crediting the Ayre Think Tank) can be downloaded here:
Photo, logos and graphics for every country download link
THE AYRE INDEX: 56 COMMONWEALTH COUNTRIES
Published ranking, out of 100. The study’s readiness benchmark is 53 points, between Nigeria (15th) and Seychelles (16th).
| Rank | Commonwealth country | Index score | Scoring coverage (of 102) | Data Gap Index (of 100) |
| 1 | Singapore | 77.6 | 75 | 37.7 |
| 2 | Malta | 75.0 | 68 | 41.4 |
| 3 | Australia | 71.0 | 76 | 26.2 |
| 4 | United Kingdom | 70.8 | 84 | 20.1 |
| 5 | Canada | 70.2 | 76 | 31.8 |
| 6 | Malaysia | 69.0 | 72 | 29.0 |
| 7 | Cyprus | 67.4 | 74 | 34.1 |
| 8 | Mauritius | 64.4 | 61 | 49.4 |
| 9 | New Zealand | 63.9 | 55 | 50.1 |
| 10 | Brunei Darussalam | 62.3 | 57 | 56.3 |
| 11 | India | 60.6 | 80 | 20.7 |
| 12 | Fiji | 56.9 | 60 | 47.9 |
| 13 | South Africa | 56.8 | 75 | 32.0 |
| 14 | Trinidad and Tobago | 56.5 | 58 | 56.6 |
| 15 | Nigeria | 54.5 | 82 | 17.4 |
| 16 | Seychelles | 51.8 | 39 | 73.1 |
| 17 | Ghana | 51.2 | 73 | 31.7 |
| 18 | Jamaica | 50.7 | 61 | 51.2 |
| 19 | Sri Lanka | 49.9 | 54 | 52.7 |
| 20 | Zambia | 48.8 | 65 | 40.5 |
| 21 | Bangladesh | 48.7 | 84 | 14.4 |
| 22 | Kenya | 48.7 | 66 | 42.9 |
| 23 | Uganda | 47.0 | 61 | 50.0 |
| 24 | Pakistan | 46.4 | 84 | 15.7 |
| 25 | Tanzania | 45.5 | 63 | 41.0 |
| 26 | Gabon | 45.3 | 43 | 67.1 |
| 27 | Antigua and Barbuda | 45.2 | 41 | 70.6 |
| 28 | Maldives | 44.9 | 41 | 71.4 |
| 29 | Cameroon | 44.9 | 54 | 53.9 |
| 30 | The Bahamas | 44.7 | 35 | 78.5 |
| 31 | Guyana | 44.5 | 49 | 65.5 |
| 32 | Papua New Guinea | 44.1 | 38 | 67.9 |
| 33 | Sierra Leone | 43.6 | 64 | 46.5 |
| 34 | Barbados | 43.0 | 43 | 70.5 |
| 35 | Belize | 42.8 | 50 | 65.2 |
| 36 | Namibia | 42.7 | 52 | 56.2 |
| 37 | Togo | 42.6 | 58 | 51.8 |
| 38 | Grenada | 41.7 | 45 | 66.2 |
| 39 | Nauru | 41.6 | 44 | 69.2 |
| 40 | Dominica | 41.3 | 37 | 75.1 |
| 41 | Samoa | 41.0 | 47 | 65.1 |
| 42 | Saint Vincent and the Grenadines | 39.5 | 38 | 72.1 |
| 43 | Saint Kitts and Nevis | 39.0 | 37 | 75.1 |
| 44 | Mozambique | 38.9 | 53 | 58.1 |
| 45 | Botswana | 38.9 | 63 | 53.8 |
| 46 | Kiribati | 38.4 | 44 | 66.9 |
| 47 | Rwanda | 38.1 | 60 | 50.2 |
| 48 | Tonga | 37.9 | 49 | 62.8 |
| 49 | Saint Lucia | 37.5 | 52 | 61.6 |
| 50 | The Gambia | 37.3 | 63 | 41.9 |
| 51 | Vanuatu | 37.1 | 48 | 64.7 |
| 52 | Eswatini | 36.9 | 51 | 62.7 |
| 53 | Solomon Islands | 32.0 | 36 | 75.6 |
| 54 | Tuvalu | 31.6 | 42 | 69.1 |
| 55 | Lesotho | 27.8 | 55 | 54.9 |
| 56 | Malawi | 26.3 | 59 | 53.0 |
Scoring coverage is the number of the 102 scored indicators with a usable value, including permitted estimates. The Data Gap Index is a separate weighted measure of missing qualifying evidence across all 111 indicators.
NOTES TO EDITORS
Research scope: The Ayre Index: The 2026 Commonwealth Youth AI Readiness Index is the Ayre Think Tank’s inaugural White Paper. It assesses the conditions that may help people aged 15 to 29 benefit from AI in all 56 Commonwealth countries. Researchers reviewed 1,128 sources, including official statistics, international databases, surveys and published studies.
What is measured: The framework comprises eight pillars, 39 sub-pillars and 111 indicators, covering access to technology, digital capability, AI use, education, employment and enterprise, rights and safeguards, confidence and the ability to question AI. Comparable evidence was insufficient to score the eighth pillar, critical judgement and human agency. The published rankings therefore use 102 indicators across seven pillars.
How scores are calculated: Each usable indicator is scored from 0 to 10 under a common set of predefined rules. Scores are averaged into sub-pillars and then pillars, which have equal weight in the overall score out of 100. Countries are scored on the four to seven pillars for which they have usable information. Indicator scoring used an AI model following a fixed rubric, with scores checked against the scoring bands; second scoring produced the same result in 1,848 of 1,854 cases. The underlying data and calculation code are published alongside the Index, allowing the scores to be independently reproduced.
The readiness benchmark: A study-defined benchmark of 53 out of 100 was selected after six statistical methods were used to examine the distribution of scores and comparisons with established measures of AI preparedness. Five of the six methods’ uncertainty ranges include 53. Fifteen countries reach or exceed this benchmark while 41 fall below it. The benchmark is a comparative research measure, not an IMF threshold or a guarantee of economic gains.
Gaps and limitations: The Index measures conditions associated with readiness; it does not test the AI competence of every young person. Sources span different years and age groups, and some indicators use permitted estimates or published stand-ins. The separate Data Gap Index records missing qualifying evidence across all 111 indicators; a higher data-gap score indicates more missing information and does not reduce the readiness score. Scoring coverage, shown in the table, counts usable values including permitted estimates.
Economic illustrations: To illustrate the potential economic scale of AI, the Ayre Think Tank applied the International Monetary Fund’s low and high ten-year GDP-level effects for broad economic groups to World Bank national GDP figures for 2025 (2024 for The Bahamas). The moderate scenario is the midpoint of the low and high estimates, calculated by the researchers. The figures describe possible effects on the level of GDP after ten years, not annual increases, accumulated gains over a decade, country-specific forecasts or the additional GDP that crossing the Index benchmark would cause. The estimates concern whole economies and do not calculate how much young people would receive.
ABOUT THE AYRE THINK TANK AND CALVIN AYRE FOUNDATION
The Ayre Think Tank conducts research into the opportunities and challenges created by emerging technologies, with a focus on inclusion, connection, prosperity and progress. Working with the Calvin Ayre Foundation, it seeks to identify how technological advances can deliver practical benefits for people and communities. The Ayre Index is its inaugural White Paper.
The Calvin Ayre Foundation is an independent charitable organisation based in Antigua and Barbuda. Founded by entrepreneur and philanthropist Calvin Ayre, it supports education, social development and communities in need, including disaster and emergency response.
More information at: https://calvinayrefoundation.org/
For media enquiries and interview requests please contact:
Joy Wambura at Joy@ayrethinktank.com or +254 725 991 228
