Q1’2021 GDP: Agricultural Sector Grew By 2.28% – NBS

In real terms, the agricultural sector in the first quarter of 2021 grew by 2.28% (year-on-year), an increase of 0.07% points from the corresponding period of 2020, but a decrease of -1.14% points from the preceding quarter which recorded a growth rate of 3.42%. Quarter-on-quarter, the agriculture sector grew at –28.61%.

This is according to the recently released Q1 2021 GDP report by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Sunday.

In terms of contribution, the sector accounted for 22.35% of overall GDP in real terms in Q1 2021, higher than the contribution in the first quarter of 2020 but lower than the fourth quarter of 2020 which stood at 21.96% and 26.95% respectively.

GDP Nigeria's Poultry affected by Maize Ban Brandspurng
Photo by christin hume

Four sub-activities make up the Agricultural sector: Crop Production, Livestock, Forestry and Fishing.

Further analysis by Brand Spur revealed that the sector grew by 15.14% year-on-year in nominal terms in Q1 2021, showing a decline of -7.33% points from the corresponding quarter of 2020 but an increase of 1.11% points when compared with the preceding quarter’s growth rate of 14.03%.

Crop Production remained the major driver of the sector, as it accounts for 71.69% of the overall nominal growth of the sector in the first quarter of 2021. Quarter-on-quarter growth stood at –18.80% in the first quarter of 2021.

Oilseed GDP

Agriculture contributed 21.42% to nominal GDP in the first quarter of 2021. This figure was higher than the rates recorded for the first quarter of 2020 but lower than the fourth quarter of 2020 which recorded 20.88% and 24.23% respectively.

Nigeria Real GDP Grew by 0.51% in Q1 2021 – NBS

Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 0.51% (year-on-year) in real terms in the first quarter of 2021, marking two consecutive quarters of growth following the negative growth rates recorded in the second and third quarters of 2020.

The Q1 2021 growth rate was slower than the 1.87% growth rate recorded in Q1 2020 but higher than 0.11% recorded in Q4 2020, indicative of a slow but continuous recovery. Nevertheless, quarter on quarter, real GDP grew at -13.93% in Q1 2021 compared to Q4 2020, reflecting a generally slower pace of economic activities at the start of the year.

REal gdp Inflation CBN’s PMI report for Sept-2020 brandspurng A hint at recession
Photo by Cleyder Duque

In the quarter under review, aggregate GDP stood at N40,014,482.74 million in nominal terms. This performance is higher when compared to the first quarter of 2020 which recorded aggregate GDP of N35,647,406.08 million, indicating a year on year nominal growth rate of 12.25%.

The nominal GDP growth rate in Q1 2021 was higher relative to the 12.01% growth recorded in the first quarter of 2020 as well as the 10.07% growth recorded in the preceding quarter. For better clarity, the Nigerian economy has been classified broadly into the oil and non-oil sectors.

The Oil Sector

In the first quarter of 2021, average daily oil production stood at 1.72 million barrels per day (mbpd), or 0.35mbpd lower than the average daily production of 2.07mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2020 but higher than the production volume of 1.56mbpd recorded in the fourth quarter of 2020. (Figure2).

The oil sector recorded a real GDP growth rate of -2.21% (year-on-year) in Q1 2021 indicating a decrease of -7.27% points relative to the growth rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2020 (5.06%).

Compared to Q4 2020 which recorded a -19.76% growth rate, growth in Q1 2021 was higher by 17.55% points. Quarter-on-quarter, the oil sector recorded a growth rate of 35.65% in Q1 2021.

In terms of contribution to aggregate GDP, the Oil sector accounted for 9.25% of aggregate real GDP in Q1 2021, slightly lower than 9.5% recorded in the corresponding period of 2020 but higher than in the preceding quarter, where it contributed 5.87%.

The Non-Oil Sector

The non-oil sector grew by 0.79% in real terms in Q1 2021, which was -0.75% points lower compared to the rate recorded in the same quarter of 2020 and -0.89% points lower than rates recorded in the fourth quarter of 2020.

Growth in the non-oil sector was driven mainly by the Information and Communication (Telecommunication) sector while other drivers include Agriculture (Crop Production); Manufacturing (Food, Beverage & Tobacco); Real Estate; Construction and Human Health & Social Services.

In real terms, the Non-oil sector accounted for 90.75% of aggregate GDP in the first quarter of 2021, higher than its share in the first quarter of 2020 which was 90.50% but lower than 94.13% recorded in the fourth quarter of 2020.

Mining & Quarrying

This sector grew nominally by –0.13% (year on year) in Q1 2021. Metal Ore exhibited the highest growth rate of all the sub-activities at 46.05%, followed by Coal mining activity at 14.11%.

However, Crude Petroleum and Natural gas was the main contributor to the sector with a weight of 99.47% in Q1 2021.

Comparing Q1 2021’s rate of growth against the Q1 2020 and Q4 2020 growth rates indicates an increase of 10.44% points and 12.19% points respectively.

The Mining & Quarrying sector contributed 7.09% to aggregate GDP in the first quarter of 2021, lower than the contributions recorded in the first quarter of 2020 at 7.97% but higher than the previous quarter growth rate of 5.46%.

In real terms, the Mining and Quarrying sector grew by –2.19% (year-on-year) in the first quarter of 2021.

Compared to the same quarter of 2020, the sector growth rate was lower by –6.77% points but higher by 16.25% points when compared to the fourth quarter of 2020. Quarter on quarter, the growth rate recorded was 31.15%.

The contribution of Mining and Quarrying to real GDP in the quarter under review stood at 9.28%, lower than the rate of 9.54% recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2020 but higher than the 6.09% recorded in the fourth quarter of 2020.

Agriculture

Four sub-activities make up the Agricultural sector: Crop Production, Livestock, Forestry and Fishing. The sector grew by 15.14% year-on-year in nominal terms in Q1 2021, showing a decline of -7.33% points from the corresponding quarter of 2020 but an increase of 1.11% points when compared with the preceding quarter’s growth rate of 14.03%.

GDP Nigeria's Poultry affected by Maize Ban Brandspurng
Photo by Christin Hume on Unsplash

Crop Production remained the major driver of the sector, as it accounts for 71.69% of the overall nominal growth of the sector in the first quarter of 2021. Quarter-on-quarter growth stood at –18.80% in the first quarter of 2021.

Agriculture contributed 21.42% to nominal GDP in the first quarter of 2021. This figure was higher than the rates recorded for the first quarter of 2020 but lower than the fourth quarter of 2020 which recorded 20.88% and 24.23% respectively.

In real terms, the agricultural sector in the first quarter of 2021 grew by 2.28% (year-on-year), an increase of 0.07% points from the corresponding period of 2020, but a decrease of -1.14% points from the preceding quarter which recorded a growth rate of 3.42%. Quarter-on-quarter, the agriculture sector grew at –28.61%.

In terms of contribution, the sector accounted for 22.35% of overall GDP in real terms in Q1 2021, higher than the contribution in the first quarter of 2020 but lower than the fourth quarter of 2020 which stood at 21.96% and 26.95% respectively.

Manufacturing

Nominal GDP growth of the Manufacturing sector in the first quarter of 2021 was recorded at 32.10% (year-on-year), 3.62% points higher than recorded in the corresponding period of 2020 (28.47%) and 7.50% points higher than the preceding quarter figure of 24.60%.

Quarter-on-quarter growth of the sector was recorded at 9.03%. The contribution of Manufacturing to Nominal GDP in the first quarter of 2021 was 15.27%, which was also higher than the corresponding period of 2020 at 12.98% and the fourth quarter of 2020 at 12.87%.

Real GDP growth in the manufacturing sector in the first quarter of 2021 was 3.40% (year on year), higher than the same quarter of 2020 and the preceding quarter by 2.97% points and 4.92% points respectively.

The growth rate of the sector on a quarter-on-quarter basis stood at -0.66%. The real contribution to GDP was 9.93%, higher than the 9.65% recorded in the first quarter of 2020 and 8.60% recorded in the fourth quarter of 2020.

Construction

The Construction sector grew by 43.88% in nominal terms (year on year) in the first quarter of 2021, a drop by –0.38% points compared to the rate of 44.26% recorded in the same quarter of 2020.

There was an increase by 0.30% points when compared to the rate recorded in the preceding quarter. Nominal growth quarter-on-quarter was recorded at 11.27%.

Construction contributed 10.17% to nominal GDP in the first quarter of 2021, higher than the 7.94% it contributed a year earlier and the 8.40% contributed in the fourth quarter of 2020.

The real growth rate of the construction sector in the first quarter of 2021 was recorded at 1.42% (year on year), lower by –0.26% points from the rate recorded the previous year.

Relative to the preceding quarter, there was an increase of 0.21% points. Quarter on quarter, the sector grew by 1.95% in real terms, higher than the 1.74% it recorded in the first quarter of 2020.

Its contribution to aggregate real GDP was 4.12% in the first quarter of 2021, higher than its contribution of 4.08% in the same quarter of the previous year, and the preceding quarter where it contributed 3.47%.

Download Q1 2021 GDP Report

Fidelity Bank Discloses 13,500,700 Shares Purchased by Nelson Nweke

The Fidelity Bank Plc recently disclosed insider dealing (transaction) of 13,500,700 shares acquired by one of its Non-Executive Directors, Nelson Nweke on May 18, 2021.

In a statement signed by the Company Secretary, Ezinwa Unuigboje and released through the Nigerian Stock Exchange, Fidelity Bank stated that the Non-Executive Director acquired the 13,500,700 shares at NGN 2.07 per unit. This brings the total number of share spent by the director to NGN 26,921,799.

 Fidelity Bank
Nelson Nweke

Mr. Nelson Nweke was appointed to the Board of Fidelity Bank as a Non-Executive Director, effective January 1, 2021. He currently serves as the Managing Director of Neilville Nigeria Limited and an Independent Non-Executive Director at Berger Paints PLC.

Prior to joining the Board of Fidelity Bank, he had previously served as a Non-Executive Director of Premium Pension Limited and was a member of the Governing Council of Anambra State Investment Promotion and Protection Agency between 2014 and 2018.

His banking industry experience covers Operations, Public Sector, Corporate Services and Human Resources Administration, with an extensive career in the financial sector, rising to the position of Executive Director at legacy Intercontinental Bank Plc.

He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Political Science and an MSc. in Industrial and Labour Relations, both from the University of Ibadan. He has also attended various executive development programmes at world-class business schools including INSEAD, France; IMD, Lausanne, Switzerland; and Harvard Business School, amongst others.

He is an Associate Member of the Chartered Institute of Stockbrokers (CIS), Member Chartered Institute of Personnel Management (CIPM) and Nigeria Institute of Management (NIM).

NASCO Founder, Ahmed Nasreddin dies at 96

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The founder of NASCO Group of Companies, Ahmed Nasreddin has died at the age of 96. The company headquartered in Jos was established by the deceased in 1963 and has produced household items feeding the Nigerian market and beyond.

The late Nasreddin was a visionary leader who established NASCO in Jos in 1963 as the first jute bag factory in Nigeria and sub-Saharan Africa, in response to the desire of the Nation’s founding fathers to meet the challenges for the effective bagging, storage and export of the large agricultural products from the country.

NASCO

This vision saw the company growing from its little beginnings to become a major conglomerate with successful companies in manufacturing, real estate, hospitality and logistics, trading among others.

Reacting to the demise, Plateau State Governor, Simon Lalong said the passing of the patriarch of the NASCO family is a great loss not only to the family but people of Plateau and Nigeria at large.

Lalong in a statement by his Director of Press and Public Affairs, Makut Macham said the late Nasreddin was a visionary leader who groomed his company from a little beginning to become a major conglomerate.

According to the statement, “Governor Simon Lalong has expressed the deep condolences of the people and Government of Plateau State to the NASCO family over the passing of the founder of the Nasco Group of Companies, Dr Ahmed Nasreddin who died at the age of 96.

Governor Lalong in a message of commiseration described the passing of the patriarch of the NASCO family as a great loss not only to the family but to people of Plateau State and Nigeria as a whole.”

NASCO has over the years remained a major employer of labour in Plateau State and continues to contribute to the economic prosperity of the State and Nigeria at large through tax revenue and corporate social responsibility. Because of the faith that the late Nasreddin had in Plateau State, NASCO remained rooted in the State throughout the difficult moments when the State witnessed crises that affected its development.”

In a report by NBC News, Nasreddin was linked to one of the financiers of terrorism by the United States and the United Nations (UN).

The then US President, George W. Bush, froze the assets of Nasreddin’s Al Taqwa bank.

Bush had said, “Al Taqwa is an association of offshore banks and financial management firms that have helped al-Qaida shift money around the world.”

Nasreddin’s assets and companies are frozen in some parts of the world including Nascotex SA in Tangiers, Morocco; Nasco Nasreddin Holding, Turkey; Nasreddin Group International Holding Ltd. in the Bahamas; and Nascoservice in Milan, Italy.

However, his assets in Nigeria – producers of cereals and other products – remained unfrozen.

The report by NBC News noted that a UN official, Richard Barrett had said about Nasreddin’s assets, “What’s supposed to happen to his assets is that they should be frozen, that he should have no access to them, no benefit from them — wherever they are in the world.”

He added that enforcing international sanctions are usually tricky because company ownership is usually had to determine.

Nasreddin has, in the past, denied any involvement in the financing of terrorism, the report noted.

Mouka Rewards Best Graduating Students Of Covenant University

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Mouka, Nigeria’s leading manufacturer of mattresses, pillows, and other bedding products, has rewarded the best graduating students from all faculties of the prestigious Covenant University, Ogun state, with cash grants.

Science has proven that there is a correlation between quality sleep and smartness. Based on this premise, the Mouka brand has continued to raise awareness for the importance of quality sleep in academic excellence. The brand has also tailored some of its products to suit the needs of students across the age brackets.

A few years ago, Mouka launched the Dreamtime range of children’s mattresses based on this same insight. Available in two exciting designs, the Dreamtime mattress is covered with a water-resistant yet breathable fabric that prevents fluids from sipping into the mattress core.

Mouka Rewards Best Graduating Students Of Covenant University-Brand Spur Nigeria
From Left: Yemisi Obadina, Brand Manager, Mouka; presenting a dummy cheque of N100,000 to Ezeuduji Daniel I, the best graduating student from the College of Engineering; and Professor David Omole, Dean of the College; at the 15th convocation ceremony of Covenant University, Ota, Ogun State, as part of Mouka’s Award for Excellence, on Thursday, May 20, 2021.

Unlike mackintosh, however, the cover is soft and keeps the child’s body cool and comfortable through the night. With Mouka Dreamtime, children can enjoy quality sleep to stay alert and learn in school the next day.

For secondary schools, universities, and other tertiary institutions, Mouka has a range of pocket-friendly mattresses available in bunk-bed and single-bed sizes. The most popular of the Mouka economy range is Comfy, popularly called Mouka student mattress.

In 2020, the brand flagged off the Mouka Award For Excellence, in which it set out to reward the brightest student in each faculty in various universities around Nigeria. This is in addition to educating the students about the need to prioritize quality sleep while striving for academic distinction.

Mouka Rewards Best Graduating Students Of Covenant University-Brand Spur Nigeria
From Left: Yemisi Obadina, Brand Manager, Mouka; presenting a dummy cheque of N100,000 to Williams Taiwo O, the best graduating student from the College of Leadership and Development Studies; and Professor Olujide Adekeye, Dean of the College; at the 15th convocation ceremony of Covenant University, Ota, Ogun State, as part of Mouka’s Award for Excellence, on Thursday, May 20, 2021-Brand Spur Nigeria

The company’s Brand Manager, Yemisi Obadina, presented cheques of One Hundred Thousand Naira to the best graduating student in each faculty at the school’s convocation ceremony, which held on May 20, 2021.

The beneficiaries include Esonu Chisom from the College of Management and Social Studies; Williams Taiwo from Leadership and Development Studies; Ezeuduji Daniel and Umeh Emmanuel from Engineering; and James-Okoro Paula-Peace from Science and Technology.

Commending them on their achievements, the CEO of Mouka, Raymond Murphy, wished them success as they transition into the next phase of their lives. He also urged them to continue to prioritize quality sleep to perform optimally in their chosen field of endeavours.

Mouka Rewards Best Graduating Students Of Covenant University-Brand Spur Nigeria

The Vice-Chancellor of the Institution, Professor Abiodun Adebayo, was elated by the noble gesture from the organization. He thanked Mouka and affirmed that the cash grants would support the students to achieve their goals in the immediate future.

The students also expressed their gratitude to the management of Mouka for fulfilling their promise to reward excellence.

GTBank: Lower Reinvestment Income Depress Earnings

Guaranty Trust Bank Plc (GTBank) in its Q1 2021 earnings result, declared a 6% YoY gross earnings decline from N112.87bn in Q1 2020 to N106.17bn in Q1 2021.

In the breakdown of gross earnings, interest income declined by 22% YoY from N77.04bn in Q1 2020 to N60.31bn in Q1 2021; while non-interest income grew by 28% YoY from N35.83bn in Q1 2020 to N45.86bn in Q1 2021.

Operating income declined by 5% YoY from N97.98bn in Q1 2020 to N93.47bn in Q1 2021. Meanwhile, operating expense remained flat in Q1 2021 at N39.78bn (Q1 2020: N39.77bn).

GTBank Plans Kenyan Acquisition Brandspurng
Photographer: Issouf Sanogo/AFP/Getty Images

As a result, the Group’s cost-to-income ratio advanced by 200 basis points from 41% in Q1 2020 to 43% in Q1 2021. Consequently, profit before tax dipped by 8% YoY, while profit after tax declined by 9% YoY from N50.07bn in Q1 2020 to N45.55bn in Q1 2021.

Low Interest-rate Environment Bites Hard into Earnings

The Group recorded a material decline across its major interest-income lines in Q1 2021. Interest income on loans and advances declined by 5% YoY from N46.41bn in Q1 2020 to N44.32bn in Q1 2021, despite a 1% YoY growth in average total loans and borrowings to customers from N1.56trn in Q1 2020 to N1.65trn in Q1 2021.

As was the trend in 2020 across the banking industry, the sustained low yield environment had an impact on interest earnings on risk assets. Interest income on investment securities declined at a steeper rate, by as much as 67% YoY from N25.41bn in Q1 2020 to N8.30bn in Q1 2021. Meanwhile, investment securities grew by 22% on a YoY basis, from an average of N814.42bn in Q1 2020 to N997.29bn in Q1 2021.

We attribute the significant decline to reinvestment risks during the period under review. We note that the Group’s interest income was resilient in FY 2020, relative to the performance of peers. The management linked the interest income resilience in FY 2020 to its investment strategy of going long on longer-tenor assets before the market-wide yield decline, therefore, enabling the Group to benefit from higher yields when interest rates declined.

In our view, we posit that these assets probably matured, hence reinvestment was done at significantly lower yields. The decline in interest income on investment securities was the core driver of the overall decline in total interest income.

Solid Growth Across Non-Interest Income Lines Support Income

GTBank’s non-interest income grew by 28% YoY from N35.83bn in Q1 2020 to N45.86bn in Q1 2021. Fee and commission income increased by 22% YoY from N14.46bn to N17.57bn, driven by the Group’s business income.

Net trading gains on financial instruments grew by 63% YoY from N5.42bn in Q1 2020 to N8.85bn in Q1 2021, driven by foreign exchange gains. Lastly, other income grew by 22% YoY from N15.95bn in Q1 2020 to N19.43bn in Q1 2021, driven by increased debt recoveries.

Fee and commission income accounted for 31% of total non-interest income growth, while net trading gains and other income accounted for 34% and 35% of total non-interest income, respectively.

Interest Income Decline Weighs Heavily on Bottomline

The material decline in interest income resulted to a 5% YoY decline in operating income from N97.98bn in Q1 2020 to N93.47bn in Q1 2021. Although the Group tried to be cost-efficient during the period, as reflected in the unchanged operating expense at N39.78bn in Q1 2021 (Q1 2020: N39.77bn), it was not enough to prevent an 8% YoY decline from N58.20bn in Q1 2020 to N53.68bn in Q1 2021.

Outlook

We expect GTBank’s earnings to recover in the subsequent quarters, on the back of the rising trend of yields in the fixed income market. We also expect to see sustained solid growth in non-interest income – partly due to a low base in Q2 2020, and partly due to its solid investment portfolio related to FX positions and swaps.

We revised our FY 2020 earnings per share (EPS) estimate, and adjusted it to lower by 7% to N7.21 (previous: N7.74), to reflect a combination of our future expectations and the released Q1 2021 results. Nonetheless, we arrived at a N39.09 fair value (previous: N37.03), to reflect our improved expectations on interest income and non-interest income growth.

In arriving at our estimate, we did not incorporate the planned HoldCo structure announced by the Group. At the current market price, we believe that the stock offers a 43% total return (price return: 33%; dividend yield: 10%).

Therefore, we recommend a BUY.

MTN Nigeria: Solid Growth Underpins Industry Fundamentals

MTN Nigeria Plc recently released its Q1 2021 financial performance. The Group reported a 17% YoY revenue growth from N329.17bn in Q1 2020 to N385.32bn in Q1 2021.

MTN Nigeria’s topline growth was driven by data revenue growth. Specifically, data revenue rose by 43% YoY from N74.01bn in Q1 2020 to N105.70bn in Q1 2021.

Hence, the revenue growth from the data accounted for 56% of the Group’s total revenue growth in Q1 2021. Operating cost grew by 15% YoY from N157.40bn in Q1 2020 to N180.77bn in Q1 2021.

The major cost drivers during the period were direct networking costs (+30% YoY from N72.11bn to N93.87bn), interconnect and roaming costs (+11% YoY from N28.02bn to N31.18bn), and discounts & commissions (+18% YoY from N16.05bn to N18.91bn).

Despite the 15% increase in operating costs in Q1 2021, the operating cost margin declined by 100 basis points from 48% in Q1 2020 to 47% in Q1 2021. As a result, EBITDA grew by 19% YoY from N171.77bn in Q1 2020 to N204.55bn in Q1 2021.

Net finance cost declined by 11% YoY from N33.67bn in Q1 2020 to N30.12bn in Q1 2021, despite a 26% YoY increase in average total borrowings from N948.88bn as of Q1 2020 to N1.19trn as of Q1 2021.

The cost savings recorded from the lower net finance cost incurred resulted in a 34% expansion of profit before tax from N76.91bn in Q1 2020 to N102.99bn in Q1 2021. Profit after tax grew further, by 43% YoY from N51.74bn in Q1 2020 to N73.75bn in Q1 2021. The higher rate of increase in profit after tax was largely due to a lower effective tax rate in Q1 2021.

Resilient Topline Performance Despite Regulatory Bottlenecks

On a year-to-date basis, the Group recorded a 7% decline (from 76.50mn as of FY 2020 to 71.50mn as of Q1 2021) in total mobile subscribers due to the effects of customer churn and restrictions on new SIM sales and activation, arising from changes in SIM registration regulations.

However, on a year-on-year basis, the Group’s total mobile subscribers grew by 4% YoY from 68.50mn in Q1 2020 to 71.50mn in Q1 2021. The Group stated that 50% of its mobile subscribers have submitted their National Identity Number (NIN) as of April 30, 2021. Supported by a 9% increase in voice traffic and a slight increase in mobile subscribers (on a YoY basis), voice revenue grew by 8% YoY from N194.04bn in Q1 2020 to N208.62bn in Q1 2021.

Strong Momentum Continues to Drive Data Revenue

The combination of an improved 4G penetration, increased data usage and traffic, the Group’s data revenue grew by 43% YoY from N74.01bn in Q1 2020 to N105.70bn in Q1 2021. According to the management, its 4G network coverage increased by 200 basis points from 60% as of FY 2020 to 62% as of Q1 2021.

Recent Corporate Developments

On March 12, 2021, the Group announced that it acquired an additional 10MHz spectrum in the 800MHz band from Intercellular Nigeria Limited. The acquisition is expected to enable MTN Nigeria to deliver improved service speed to consumers, and thus, drive accelerated growth.

On April 8, 2021, the Group announced of its successful issuance of Series 3 and 4 Commercial Papers. The aggregate CP issuance stood at N73.51bn across both tenors. Also, the Group announced that it would issue a Series 1, 7-year fixed rare bond under a debut N200bn Bond Issuance Programme.

The bond issuance was completed in May 2021, with the Group raising N100bn at 13.00%. The Group approved the appointment of Ms. Tsholofelo as a Non-Executive Director effective on May 3, 2021. Ms. Molefe was appointed as the Chief Financial Officer of MTN Group SA Limited in April 2021. She held positions of Deputy Chief Financial Officer and Group Risk and Compliance Officer, prior to her appointment as MTN Group SA Chief Financial Officer.

Outlook

We raised our FY 2021 revenue forecast by 2% YoY to N1.58trn (previous: N1.55trn). We also raised our FY 2021 profit after tax forecast to N268.83bn (previous: N254.71bn). The basis of our upgrades is due to our expectations of a lower net finance cost for FY 2021, given the recent capital-raising exercise.

We also expect to see improved operating efficiency in subsequent quarters. In addition, we posit higher earnings capacity, on the back of increased 4G penetration. We also expect to see a normalization of the initial impact of lower subscriber additions due to the SIM/NIN registration.

Based on the released Q1 2021 earnings result, and our future growth expectations, we upgraded our fair value of MTNN to N200.34 (previous: N194.64). At the stock’s current market price, the stock trades at a 12.11x forward P/E, compared to our 15.17x justified P/E. We believe that the stock offers a 32% total return (price return: 25%; dividend yield 7%).

Hence, we maintain our BUY recommendation.

Nigeria’s Construction Industry To Recover And Grow By 3.9% In 2021

Nigeria’s construction industry declined by 7.7% in real terms in 2020, hit by both the containment measures and disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

The steep decline in oil and gas prices, which accounted for around 65% of the government’s revenues, worsened the situation by further curtailing expenditure power on infrastructure.

However, the industry is expected to recover in 2021, with an expected real growth rate of 3.9%, driven by a sharp recovery in output levels compared to periods when works were not permitted or were severely restricted in 2020, says GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

Nigeria’s Construction Industry To Recover And Grow By 3.9% In 2021-Brand Spur Nigeria
Nigeria’s Construction Industry To Recover And Grow By 3.9% In 2021-Brand Spur Nigeria

GlobalData’s report, ‘Construction in Nigeria – Key trends and opportunities to 2025-(Q2-2021)’, reveals that the country’s construction industry is expected to post an annual average growth rate of 3.2% in real terms between 2022-2025, supported by the government’s plan to invest in the country’s infrastructure and energy sector.

The 2021 Appropriation Bill, presented by President Buhari to the National Assembly, is designed to continue achieving the goals of the Economic Sustainability Plan, which provides a road map for post-COVID-19 economic recovery to transition from the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (2017–2020) to the successor Medium-Term National Development Plan (2021–2025).

Dhananjay Sharma, Analyst at GlobalData, comments:

“The expected passage of the long-pending Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) may provide a much-needed impetus to Nigeria’s oil and gas sector, thereby creating multiplier effects across the entire construction chain and the Nigerian economy.

The government’s decision to reduce deepwater royalties and other taxes to 5% from the earlier 7.5%, and increasing production levels to 50,000bpd from the earlier 15,000 bpd, offer optimism regarding the government’s intentions to pass the bill.”

In February 2021, President Muhammadu Buhari approved the development of an infrastructure company, Infra-Co, with an initial capital of NGN1 trillion ($2.7bn) that focuses primarily on the country’s infrastructure development.

This is a public-private partnership, and the initial capital will come from the central bank, the Nigerian Sovereign Investment Authority (NSIA), and the Africa Finance Corporation.

Sharma adds:

“The focus on PIB augurs well for the Nigerian economy in general and the construction sector, in particular – given delays in implementing key legislative reforms that have compounded problems for the sector, which is still suffering under the weight of OPEC+ output cuts and the impact of COVID-19.

Nigeria’s oil and gas construction projects have a combined value of $139.6bn, of which $88.5bn relates to projects in the pre-execution stages. If all projects do proceed as planned and spending is evenly distributed over the construction phase, annual spending for 2021 is expected to be $8.2bn and could reach $25bn in 2023.”

Diabetes Care Devices Market Will Reach $25.4bn By 2025

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The diabetes care devices market was worth over $19bn in 2020 and is expected to grow to $25.4bn by 2025 with a CAGR of 6.5%, driven by the strong performance of the continuous glucose monitors (CGM) market, according to GlobalData, a leading data, and analytics company.

GlobalData anticipates the continued growth of the CGM and closed-loop pumps market will be over 20% in 2021, due to increasing awareness from patients with diabetes and diabetic care providers. The technological improvement of CGM has made the devices increasingly reliable, more user-friendly, and efficacious in terms of improving glycemic control.

Additionally, CGM usage will expand from type 1 diabetes (TD1) and type 2 diabetes (TD2) on intensive insulin therapy to broader populations including non-intensive TD2, pre-diabetes, pregnancy, and the hospital market.

Tina Deng, MSc, Principal Medical Devices Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “The collaborations between insulin delivery and CGM manufacturers are closer in 2021 due to the CGM-led diabetes management revolution.

For example, to compete with MiniMed 770G, Abbott is working with Insulet to develop a platform to integrate its CGM sensing technology with Insulet’s patch pump, Omnipod.

“The platform allows glucose data from a CGM sensor to send to Omnipod and automatically adjust insulin delivery to a patient. The market disruptor, Bigfoot Biomedical, recently received FDA 510(k) clearance for its Bigfoot Unity.

“The system features connected smartpen caps that work in conjunction with FreeStyle Libre 2 to recommend insulin doses for patients using multiple daily injection therapy. These devices are expected to take a significant share from the traditional glucose meters and delivery systems.”

Additionally, digital technology and new models of diabetes care have been rapidly deployed to meet the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic, such as not being able to visit their doctor on a regular basis. Dexcom’s CLARITY clinic software provides healthcare professionals with a web-based portal to view their patients’ CGM summary data.

Since the software was deployed, clinical usage of CLARITY has increased greatly to serve patients with diabetes during lockdown. As the software largely simplifies the diabetic management process for patients and clinicians, it will be continually used post the pandemic.

Newly improved Kellogg’s Cornflakes returns in grand style (Photos)

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In response to the yearnings of consumers, Kellogg Tolaram has unveiled the newly improved Kellogg’s Cornflakes – the world’s No.1 cereal to the Nigerian market with special fortification to match up with the global quality standards.

Part of the Special guests present to witness and endorse the product was the Honorable Commissioner, Lagos State Ministry of Women Affairs & Poverty Alleviation- Mrs. Cecilia Bolaji Dada, President Nutrition Society of Nigeria- Professor Afolabi Wasiu, Nigerian Actor and movie producer- Mrs. Funke Akindele Bello who also doubled as the host of the ceremony and a few of other celebrities.

Kellogg's Cornflakes Kellogg's Cornflakes

According to the Chief Marketing Officer, Tolaram Group, Mr. Girish Sharma,

“We want to appreciate everyone instrumental to this auspicious launch ceremony happening here today most especially the Nigerian consumers. The product was first introduced in 2018, then it was immediately withdrawn following consumers’ feedback on taste which was causally linked to technology and other local restraining factors.

“The team went back to the drawing board and have now come back to introduce the proudly made in Nigerian cornflakes, which by every means matches up to the international quality standard in terms of taste, texture, look and feel, nutritional benefits etc,” he said.

Kellogg's Cornflakes Kellogg's Cornflakes

He, however, appealed to everyone present to continue supporting the Group as it expands, there is no gainsaying that Tolaram has touched everyone here through the array of products in its portfolio. Girish assured Nigerians of the commitment towards creating another success story out of the newly launched product.

“We hope it will be readily accepted by Nigerians as much as how the previous others were embraced”.

Also speaking at the launch was Professor Wasiu Afolabi, President, Nutrition Society of Nigeria,

Kellogg's Cornflakes

“We are excited to be a part of the launch of the world’s No.1 cereal in Nigeria- Kellogg’s Cornflakes which has come with the proposition of healthy alternative breakfast packed with essential nutrition for everyone.”

Kellogg Tolaram has certainly proven to be a manufacturing entity that operates with the interest of its consumers at heart. Nutrition Society of Nigeria is proud to identify with such an organization always willing to go back to make modifications as expedient for the satisfaction of the public without compromising the global quality standard of Kellogg’s.

Apart from the crunchiness and the wonderful taste that every bite promises, further verification conducted revealed it possesses essential vitamins which the human body requires to function optimally, such as; a modest amount of energy, vitamins A, B2, B3, B6, B9, B12, C and D.

It has no less fat and no cholesterol, meaning it is not only an important diet for children but also beneficial to adults.

Kellogg’s Corn Flakes is regarded as the world’s no.1 and Mom’s original choice because it seeks to bring about a strong healthy relationship between Moms and their kids, hence the love from Moms all over the nation, in other words, Kellogg’s remains the first stop for a quick healthy breakfast for the family.