FBNQuest Partners with Teach for Nigeria to deliver the Incubation Hub Pitch Contest

January 2021 – In line with its commitment to deliver impactful community-focused initiatives, FBNQuest, the investment banking and asset management subsidiary of FBN Holdings Plc, has continued to strengthen its partnership with Teach for Nigeria (TFN) by supporting the TFN Incubation Hub Pitch Contest and the TFN Annual Mentoring Programme.

Teach for Nigeria is a non-profit organization committed to developing leaders and promoting educational development across the nation by recruiting graduates and professionals to teach in under-served schools as full-time teachers.

FBNQuest partnered with TFN on its Incubation Hub Pitch Contest, a 3-month Incubation Programme that provides TFN alumni with a unique opportunity to accelerate growth through their social impact projects.

Post-Lockdown Bounce, FBNQuest

The Incubation Hub is designed to equip participants with the practical knowledge required to build and sustain their enterprise. This is delivered through an intensive training workshop, access to post-program support, mentoring and an opportunity to pitch for seed funding for their enterprise.

The Bookaclan Literacy and No Box Initiatives emerged as winners of the contest and were given seed funding to scale their projects in 2021.

Commenting on the Incubation Hub Programme, Folawe Omikunle, CEO, Teach for Nigeria stated

“We are on a mission to address educational inequality in Nigeria. We believe that equipping our alumni with the skills and knowledge to start and scale their initiatives will bring us closer to our vision of educating all children in Nigeria”.

Employees of FBNQuest also volunteered to mentor TFN Fellows in the area of professional development as they transition from the Fellowship programme, as well as support them to implement their social impact project themed Be the Change Projects in their placement schools.

Commenting on the partnership with Teach for Nigeria, Lolade Sasore, Head, People & Knowledge Engagement at  FBNQuest stated

“We recognise the role education plays as a catalyst for growth and development, and we remain committed to equipping our youth with the right skills to excel.

“Through this and other partnerships, we hope to provide access to more opportunities for young leaders to actively contribute to building a stable economy,”.

FBNQuest continues to demonstrate its commitment to supporting and enabling education in Nigeria through its various education investment products designed to secure the future of young adults.

Some of the products include the FBN Education Endowment Plan and the Children Education Trust. FBNQuest also participates in various knowledge and skills development initiatives, as well as people empowerment and financial literacy initiatives to build future leaders.

FBNQuest is the unified brand name for the Merchant Banking and Asset Management businesses of FBN Holdings Plc, one of the strongest and most dependable financial service groups in sub-Saharan Africa.

The businesses include FBNQuest Merchant Bank, FBNQuest Asset Management, FBNQuest Securities, FBNQuest Capital, FBNQuest Trustees and FBNQuest Funds.

Standard Chartered Leads Trans-Niger Oil & Gas Limited (“TNOG”)’s acquisition of OML 17

January 28, 2021 – Standard Chartered Bank acted as Global Co-Ordinator/Financial Advisor to Heirs Holdings Oil & Gas Limited (formerly Trans-Niger Oil & Gas Limited) on its acquisition of a 45% working interest in OML 17 (a producing onshore oil and gas asset in Nigeria) from Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria Limited (“SPDC”), Total E&P Nigeria Limited (“TEPNG”) and Nigerian Agip Oil Company Limited (“NAOC”) (a subsidiary of ENI SpA). 

Standard Chartered advised HeirsHoldings Oil & Gas on all aspects of the transaction including market sounding, investor screening, transaction structuring, negotiation with financiers and the sellers, regulatory engagement, overall process management and completion escrow account structuring and management.

The Transaction, which is the largest oil & gas M&A deal in Africa in recent times, further demonstrates the Bank’s extensive knowledge of the Oil & Gas industry, access to investors and diverse capital sources, strong M&A capabilities and trusted relationship with the key transaction stakeholders

Speaking on the transaction, Korede Adenowo, Executive Director, Corporate, Commercial and Institutional Banking, Nigeria & West Africa, Standard Chartered said, 

“Standard Chartered is proud to have partnered with HeirsHoldings Oil & Gas to deliver completion on this landmark transaction and we look forward to supporting HeirsHoldings Oil & Gas to realize value from this world-class asset. We continue to work with our clients across the oil & gas value chain to support them on their growth aspirations”.

Standard Chartered Leads Trans-Niger Oil & Gas Limited (“TNOG”)’s acquisition of OML 17

What you need to know about the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine

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The WHO Strategic Advisory Group of Experts (SAGE) on Immunization has issued Interim recommendations for use of the Moderna mRNA-1273 vaccine against COVID-19 in people aged 18 years and older.

Here is what you need to know.

Who should be vaccinated first?

As with all COVID-19 vaccines, health workers at high risk of exposure and older people should be prioritized for vaccination.

As more vaccine becomes available, additional priority groups should be vaccinated, with attention to people disproportionately affected by COVID-19 or who face health inequities.

What you need to know about the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine

Who else can take the vaccine?

The vaccine is safe and effective in people with known medical conditions associated with increased risk of severe diseases, such as hypertension, diabetes, asthma, pulmonary, liver or kidney disease, as well as chronic infections that are stable and controlled.

Although further studies are required for immunocompromised persons, people in this category who are part of a group recommended for vaccination may be vaccinated after receiving information and counselling.

Persons living with HIV are at higher risk of severe COVID-19 disease. Known HIV-positive vaccine recipients should be provided with information and counselling.

Vaccination can be offered to people who have had COVID-19 in the past. But individuals may wish to defer their own COVID-19 vaccination for up to six months from the time of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

The vaccine can be offered to a breastfeeding woman who is part of a group recommended for vaccination (e.g. health workers); discontinuing breastfeeding after vaccination is currently not recommended.

Who should not take the vaccine?

While pregnancy puts women at a higher risk of severe COVID-19, the use of this vaccine in pregnant women is currently not recommended, unless they are at risk of high exposure (e.g. health workers).

Individuals with a history of a severe allergic reaction to any component of the vaccine should not take this or any other mRNA vaccine.

While vaccination is recommended for older persons due to the high risk of severe COVID-19 and death, very frail older persons with an anticipated life expectancy of fewer than 3 months should be individually assessed.

The vaccine should not be administered to persons younger than 18 years of age pending the results of further studies.

What’s the recommended dosage?

SAGE recommends the use of the Moderna mRNA-1273 vaccine at a schedule of two doses (100 µg, 0.5 ml each) 28 days apart. If necessary, the interval between the doses may be extended to 42 days.

Compliance with the full schedule is recommended and the same product should be used for both doses.

Is it safe?

While this vaccine has yet to be approved by WHO for an Emergency Use Listing, it has undergone review by the European Medical Agency (EMA) and consequently meets WHO’s criteria for SAGE consideration.

The EMA has thoroughly assessed the data on the quality, safety and efficacy of the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine and authorized its use across the European Union.

SAGE recommends that all vaccinees be observed for at least 15 minutes after vaccination. Those who experience an immediate severe allergic reaction to the first dose should not receive additional doses.

Longer-term safety assessment involves continued to follow up of clinical trial participants, as well as specific studies and continued surveillance of secondary effects or adverse events of those being vaccinated in the rollout.

The Global Advisory Committee on Vaccine Safety, a group of experts that provides an independent and authoritative guide to the WHO on the topic of safe vaccine use, receives and assesses reports of suspected safety events of potentially international impact.

How efficacious is the vaccine?

The Moderna vaccine has been shown to have an efficacy of approximately 92 per cent in protecting against COVID-19, starting 14 days after the first dose.

Does it work against new variants?

Based on the evidence so far, the new variants of SARS-CoV-2, including the B.1.1.7 and the 501Y.V2, do not alter the effectiveness of the Moderna mRNA vaccine. The monitoring, collection and analysis of data on new variants and their impact on the effectiveness of COVID-19 diagnostics, treatments and vaccines continue.

Does it prevent infection and transmission?

We do not know whether the vaccine will prevent infection and protect against onward transmission. Immunity persists for several months, but the full duration is not yet known. These important questions are being studied.

In the meantime, we must maintain public health measures that work: masking, physical distancing, handwashing, respiratory and cough hygiene, avoiding crowds, and ensuring good ventilation.

Trends in E-commerce to look out for in 2021

The advent of COVID19 and all its known implications has forced businesses into seeking neo-survival strategies while still adhering to health and safety measures enforced by authorities across the globe.

According to Brand and Ad Crunch, digital platforms have increased exponentially with various alternative measures to communicate, interact, and transact businesses safely and efficiently despite the ongoing pandemic.

E-commerce to be worth R225bn in SA in 5 years as expectations change
E-commerce to be worth R225bn in SA in 5 years as expectations change

With more and more nations and institutions adapting to the new normal and the emergence of the second wave of COVID19, it is rightly anticipated that e-commerce trends would further surge and morph accordingly.

Here are the trends to watch in E-commerce in 2021 according to Modion insights.

1. Growth of Digital Market

The digital market would dominate for some obvious reasons. COVID19 variants are on the rapid spread and as authorities are imposing restrictions and lockdowns, this would make customers more health-conscious. The forecast for sales of products sold online is expected to reach $4.5 trillion in 2021. This is because digital markets would be expected to provide ease, convenience, and safety at this point.

2. Rise In Mobile Purchase

Due to the growth in digital shopping, there would be an increase in mobile purchases to enable consumers to download the necessary apps for digital shopping. Sales from mobile e-commerce are forecasted to increase by 15%, with mobile accounting for 73% of e-commerce sales in 2021.

3. In-platform Payment

More e-commerce brands would utilize the use of in-platform payment as a solution to solve payment issues that emanate from of lack of trust in fixing card details online. In-Platform payments like ‘Jumia Pay’ would be rapid in the digital marketplace in Nigeria this year to facilitate better payment processing that helps reduce unresolved payment issues.

4. Media Shopping

Social media platforms developed features that support businesses on their platforms in 2020. This would be a major trend in 2021. Most forward-thinking businesses would embrace these features and extend their adverts on these platforms. This is also an added advantage for small businesses to reach a larger audience.

5. Improved Branding & Packaging

One thing that excites customers is a brand with unique packaging different from the usual. Durability and aesthetics are some packaging attributes that consumers would love to see more this year.

NSE, IFC to Host CEO Roundtable on Gender Equality

The Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE or The Exchange) in partnership with the International Finance Corporation (IFC) will host a workshop to promote gender equality among listed companies on Tuesday, 2 February 2021.

The virtual event will bring together Chief Executive Officers (CEOs) and C-Suite Executives of NSE 30 Index Companies to a roundtable discussion to highlight outcomes of a recently conducted survey, “Gender Implications of COVID-19 on Private Sector Companies” under the Nigeria2Equal Programme.

NSE, IFC to Host CEO Roundtable on Gender Equality brandspurng
Photo by Tim Mossholder

In addition to the roundtable discussion to be facilitated by the CEO, NSE, Mr. Oscar N. Onyema, OON, the event will also feature a keynote address from His Highness Mohammad Sanusi II, United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) Advocate; a presentation from the Country Director, IFC Nigeria, Ms. Eme Essien Lore; and a fireside chat with two of the participating CEOs on what the private sector can do to promote gender equality.

The discussions will culminate in the introduction of the Nigeria2Equal Peer Learning Platform and seek corporate Nigeria’s buy into the project.

It would be recalled that the strategic partnership between the NSE and IFC on the Nigeria2Equal Initiative was announced on Friday, 6 March 2020 at the 2020 International Women’s Day symposium hosted by the NSE.

The Initiative was kicked off with an inaugural seminar on Monday, 25 May 2020 themed, Gender Implications of COVID-19: Supporting Women as Employees in the New Normal. This was followed by a second webinar held on Tuesday, 25 August 2020 with themed, Supporting SMEs and Women-Owned Businesses in Corporate Value Chains.

MultiChoice Announces Price Slash on DStv, GOtv Decoders

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Leading video entertainment provider, MultiChoice Nigeria, has announced a price slash on its DStv and GOtv decoders starting Monday, February 1st, 2021.

The price slash will see the DStv HD decoder, dish kit with Compact package subscription drop from N18,600 to N9,900 on Confam package, while GOtv decoder, GOtennae with GOtv Jolli package subscription will go from N8,400 to N6,900.

MultiChoice Announces Price Slash on DStv, GOtv Decoders

DStv Confam is one of two recently improved DStv packages specially designed for the Nigerian family. With over 120 channels, DStv Confam offers the best of family time with international entertainment, kids, news and sports boasting of a range of channels including SuperSport La Liga, CBS Reality, FOX, BET and Cartoon Network.

GOtv Jolli, also a recently improved package on the DTT offering, offers a broad selection of over 68 local and international channels to choose from. Some of the channels available include SuperSport Football, ROK 2, Telemundo, FOX, Davinci Learning and Africa News.

MultiChoice Announces Price Slash on DStv, GOtv Decoders

Speaking at a virtual media briefing held on Friday, 29 January, Chief Customer Officer, MultiChoice Nigeria, Martin Mabutho, explained that the price slash is part of MultiChoice’s long line of efforts to lessen the economic impact of COVID on customers and a reflection of its commitment to making quality entertainment more accessible to Nigerians.

“With this discount, we are lowering the entry barrier for new customers to get a DStv or GOtv decoder as staying connected to credible information and another quality programming can be comforting for many families during these trying times,” said Mabutho.

Mabutho also listed some of the company’s relief strategies deployed during the first wave of the pandemic which includes cash donations of N200 million and N50 million to the Federal Government and Lagos State Government respectively, N400 million to the creative industry, whose professionals experienced disruptions in productions; donation of 30,000 Personal Protective Equipment and 30,000 face masks to hospitals and Non-Governmental Organisations as well as an approved inventory worth over N550m highlighting NCDC’s COVID-19 helplines and PSA materials on over 10 channels on DStv and GOtv.

“In addition to the discount we are currently running our DStv Step-Up offer which gives our customers on lower packages an opportunity to experience programming on higher packages, and a GOtv Max offer which sees customers on Jolli and Jinja enjoy a special discount of N2,999 instead of N3,600 per month,” Mabutho added.

The discounted DStv and GOtv bundle offer will be available from Monday, February 1st 2021 for a limited time only.

Ecobank Reports 64% Drop in Profit to NGN 35.9Bn in FY 2020 Results

Ecobank Transnational Incorporated Plc reports audited results for For the year ended 31 December 2020.

From the result, Ecobank Group’s gross earnings down 7% to $2,169.8 million (down 2% to NGN 829.0 billion) while revenue up 2% to $1,649.9 million (up 7% to NGN 630.3 billion).

Key financial highlights:

  • Operating income before impairment losses up 10% to $606.2 million (up 17% to NGN 231.6 billion)
  • Profit before tax and goodwill impairment down 18% to $330.8 million (down 14% to NGN 126.4 billion)
  • Profit before tax down 58% to $171.3 million (down 55% to NGN 65.5 billion)
  • Profit after tax down 66% to $93.9 million (down 64% to NGN 35.9 billion)
  • Total assets up 9% to $25.7 billion (up 19% to NGN 10,270.1 billion)
  • Loans and advances to customers stable at $9.2 billion (up 9% to NGN 3,699.6 billion)
  • Deposits from customers up 12% to $18.2 billion (up 23% to NGN 7,301.3 billion)
  • Total equity up 7% to $2.0 billion (up 17% to NGN 805.1 billion)

Ecobank Reports 64% Drop in Profit to NGN 35.9Bn in FY 2020 Results

Ecobank Nigeria Launches Business Banking App - Omni Lite App
Google Play Store | www.brandspurng.com

Airtel Africa Profit falls 21.1% to $261m, Customer Base Grew by 11% to 118.9m

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Leading provider of telecommunications and mobile money services, Airtel Africa has announced its Q3 2021 results for the nine-months ended 31 December 2020, with underlying constant currency revenue growth of 18.6% for the nine-months, and 22.8% in the third quarter.

Key Highlights:

  • reported revenue increased by 13.8% to $2,870m with Q3’21 reported revenue growth of 19.5%.
  • Constant currency underlying revenue growth was 18.6%, with Q3’21 growth of 22.8%. Growth for the nine months was recorded across all regions: Nigeria up 21.6%, East Africa up 23.4% and Francophone Africa up 8.0%; and across all services, with voice revenue up 10.4%, data up 31.1% and mobile money up 34.2%.
  • Underlying EBITDA for the nine months was $1,297m, up 16% in reported currency while constant currency underlying EBITDA growth was 22.5%.
  • Underlying EBITDA margin for the nine months was 45.5%, up by 118 bps (up 144 bps in constant currency). Q3’21 underlying EBITDA margin was 46.9%.
  • Operating profit increased by 21.8% to $800m in reported currency, and by 29.9% in constant currency.
  • Free cash flow was $466m, up 20% compared to the same period last year.
  • Basic EPS was 5.5 cents, down 36.5%, largely due to prior year exceptional items and a one-off derivative gain. Excluding these, basic EPS rose by 19.8%. EPS before exceptional items was 5.0 cents.
  • Customer base up 11.0% to 118.9 million, with increased penetration across mobile data (customer base up 23.5%) and mobile money services (customer base up 29.0%). 2.5 million customers were added in Q3’21.

Profit after tax 

Profit after tax was $261m, down by 21.1%. This was largely a result of the prior-year period recognition of a one-off gain of $72m related to the expired indemnity to certain pre-IPO investors, a higher deferred tax credit of $29m in the previous period, as well as higher finance costs and tax in the current period.

Excluding the benefit of exceptional items and one-off derivative gain of $47m in the prior period, profit after tax has increased by 30.1%.

Airtel Nigeria Commences Renovation of Infectious Disease Centre at LUTH

Raghunath Mandava, Chief Executive Officer, on the trading update:

“Our nine-month performance reflects both the resilience of our business model through the Covid-19 pandemic and, for the last six months, a continued improvement in our execution and performance as lockdown restrictions have eased across our countries of operation.

I am particularly pleased with our performance in the latest third quarter, which has demonstrated accelerated growth in both revenue and underlying EBITDA in constant currency to 22.8% and 28.3% respectively.

In part, this is due to our continued delivery of strong customer growth in Q3, despite the introduction mid-December of additional customer registration requirements in Nigeria.

This has meant a temporary halt to the ability of all operators in the country to onboard new customers. But we are working closely with the government to ensure that all our subscribers provide their valid National Identification Numbers (NINs) and update their SIM registration records, such that disruption is minimised.

Our performance improvement is evident across the business. Regionally, I am pleased to see that the continued strong revenue growth in Nigeria and East Africa, growing 21.6% and 23.4% in constant currency, is increasingly being matched by improvements across Francophone Africa, posting 8.0% growth for the period and 15.0% in Q3.

Our rollout into rural markets, along with robust customer growth, helped voice grow 10%, while data and mobile money continued to be growth engines, with over 30% growth.

Finally, while the Covid-19 pandemic has had little impact on our most recent quarter, we remain vigilant about the recent news flow around new strains of the virus and further actions by governments to minimise contagion in our countries of operation.

The opportunities for sustainable profitable growth from our underpenetrated markets for both mobile and mobile money services remain hugely attractive, and we are confident of continuing to deliver on our growth strategy.”

Dividend

In October 2020, the Board approved a new progressive dividend policy during the period as a result of the continued strong business performance, significant opportunities to invest in future growth and the aim to continue to reduce leverage.

The newly adopted dividend policy aims to grow the dividend annually by a mid to high single-digit percentage from a base of 4 cents per share for FY 2021 until reported leverage (calculated as net debt to underlying EBITDA) falls below 2.0x.

At the point when reported leverage (calculated as net debt to underlying EBITDA) is below 2.0x, the Board will reassess the dividend policy in light of the growth outlook for the Group. On 28 October 2020, in line with the dividend policy, the Board declared an interim dividend of 1.5 cents per ordinary share which was paid on 11 December 2020.

Licence renewal in Nigeria

In January 2021, Airtel Networks Limited (Airtel Nigeria), announced that its application for renewal of the spectrum licences in the 900MHz and 1800MHz bands had been approved by the Nigerian Communications Commission (“NCC”).

Pursuant to Section 43 of the Nigerian Communications Act, 2003 and Condition 20 of the Unified Access Service Licence (UASL), Airtel Nigeria had applied to renew its spectrum licences in the 900MHz and 1800MHz bands which would otherwise expire on 30 November 2021.  

Following the application, the NCC offered Airtel Nigeria the opportunity to renew its spectrum licences in the 900MHz & 1800MHz bands for a period of ten years, with effect from 1 December 2021 until 30 November 2031, which Airtel Nigeria accepted.

Under the terms of the spectrum licences, Airtel Nigeria paid 71.611 billion naira ($189 million) in respect of the licence renewal fees.

New SIM registration rules in Nigeria

Following a directive issued by the Nigerian Communications Commission on 15 December 2020 to all Nigerian telecom operators, Airtel Nigeria is working with the government to ensure that all our subscribers provide their valid National Identification Numbers (NINs) to update SIM registration records.

New customer acquisitions are currently barred until significant progress is made on linking the current active base with verified NINs. The deadline for customers to register their NIN with their SIM has moved from a provisional date of 30 December 2020 in the initial directive in order to accommodate the logistical challenges involved.

The latest deadline for registration is currently 9 February 2021. We have made significant progress on capturing existing NINs and building the database in collaboration with the National Identity Management Commission (NIMC).

To date, out of Airtel Nigeria’s 44.4 million customers, we have collated NIN information for 21 million mobile customers (47%). To complete the registration process we still need to verify the NIN information we have received from our subscribers with the NIMC.

This requires improved connectivity with the NIMC database which is currently being developed for all the Nigerian mobile operators. Airtel also opened enrolment centres in collaboration with the NIMC to facilitate customers obtaining NINs for roughly half of the population that do not currently have a NIN. We continue to work closely with the government to ensure full compliance.

Airtel, unlimited data plans

When Will Caprisonne Show Its Adult Fans Love

Caprisonne, also known as Capri sun is a fruit drink that comes in a pouch size package and is popular among kids. There have been different flavours to satisfy the tastes of the target audience.

The mention of the drink spark childhood memories in people while others can’t get enough of it and still buy the drink for themselves. While some count this as childish and seem to have outgrown it, many see it as a glue between their childhood and their adult phase.

Those who can’t seem to forget this legendary drink are still consuming the drink and advocating for bigger sizes as the smaller size is not satisfactory in quantity.

When Will Caprisonne Show Its Adult Fans Love brandspurng

While this just seems like a mini outcry for the producers of caprisonne to do something. It is a wake-up call and a very strong business opportunity they can explore. They can create the bigger size of the popular flavours of caprisonne in limited quantity and test to see how the market received it.

If it is well adapted by the present adult generation then it can be assured that there is a new target segment. From these new products and ideas and even existing flavours can be pushed across to this newly discovered audience whose needs are being fulfilled.

Scaling the bigger size of the caprisonne brand will not be as hard as it seems due to the strong distribution network already available. What is need is just to capitalize on the existing distribution power while building new ones to reinforce the existing.

When Will Caprisonne Show Its Adult Fans Love brandspurng

Also, Communication can be focused on nostalgia and imagination. Communication can be centred on caprisonne bringing out the child in you and ideas created to reinforce this stance. As we all know that there are things we want to do but find it hard doing as an adult cause it is termed as childish, well caprisonne can break this taboos or disrupt this way of viewing things, issues and activities. A stance against this is one way for caprisonne to build the much-needed associations.

We, therefore, appeal to the makers of caprisun to show the fans that they love them by giving them what they want to while making more money in return. Kindly show that you place customers need ahead of any other thing and see it work magic

Okomu Oil Palm – The year of the Rubber

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  • Rubber revenue growth should drive topline expansion in FY’21
  • Operating margins should mildly expand in spite of inflationary pressure
  • End of loan moratorium will drive higher Finance charges
  • HOLD call reaffirmed as Target price hits ₦99.98

Higher rubber prices should rescue flattish CPO Revenue

OKOMU OIL released its unaudited FY’20 results yesterday, reporting an impressive earnings outperformance, largely driven by costs containment and a lower-than-expected tax expense.

The CPO producer, like its peers, benefited largely from the food supply shortage caused by the closed borders which saw CPO prices jump by over 50% in some parts of the country. Accordingly, Oil Palm Revenue surged 29% y/y to ₦20.5 billion in FY’20 (Vetiva: ₦21.8 billion).

Okomu Oil Palm - The year of the Rubber Brandspurng1

Meanwhile, plagued by persistent pressure on global rubber prices due to the impact of the pandemic, OKOMUOIL reported a 3% y/y drop in Rubber revenue to ₦2.9 billion, albeit still ahead of our ₦2.5  billion expectation. Combined, the manufacturer reported a 24% y/y jump in FY’20 topline to ₦23.4 billion, 4% below our ₦24.3 billion estimates.

Just as we stated in our FY’21 outlook report titled, “Navigating Unsteady Terrain”, the reopening of land borders at the close of 2020 should place domestic CPO prices under pressure in 2020 as cheaper smuggled products flood the market.

That said, still-rising CPO prices in the global commodity market, as well as currency weakness in the parallel market (Oil palm importers have to rely on the parallel market to fund imports), should create a floor for prices in FY’21. All in, we forecast a 0.4% y/y drop Oil Palm Revenue to ₦20.4 billion in FY’21.

Revenue from Rubber sales on the other hand should see some joy as demand for Rubber and consequently Rubber prices rise in FY’21. We forecast a 25% y/y growth in Rubber Revenue to ₦3.6 billion, taking total Revenue 3% higher to ₦24.1 billion.

Stronger topline drives bottom-line growth

Meanwhile, in spite of inflationary pressures from the pandemic and FX devaluation, OKOMUOIL reported a 16% y/y jump in FY’20 EBIT to ₦8.5 billion, barely 2% off our ₦8.4 billion expectation. With the yield on fixed income assets falling in 2020, OKOMUOIL’s finance income & costs fell 98% and 63%y/y, taking Net finance costs to ₦63 million, down from a Net finance income of ₦159 million in FY’19.

Despite the fall in finance income, PBT still expanded 12% y/y to ₦8.5 billion, supported by the stronger topline. After accounting for a less-than-expected tax expense of ₦1.1 billion (Vetiva: ₦2.0 billion), PAT printed at ₦7.4 billion, 46% higher y/y and ahead of our ₦5.7 billion PAT estimate.

Valuation improves on Revised metrics

After accounting for the FY’20 results, we have made a couple of adjustments to our model and our FY’21 estimates. In spite of rising inflationary pressure on costs, we forecast a 40bps expansion in operating margin to 37%, largely boosted by the rising proportion of rubber revenue in FY’21.

In absolute terms, operating profit is expected to jump 4% y/y to ₦8.8 billion even as EBIT jumps 6% y/y to ₦9.0 billion. With the moratorium period on the ₦10.0 billion DCRR loans set to expire in FY’21, we expect Net Finance costs to jump 18x y/y to ₦1.2 billion, taking PBT 7% lower y/y to ₦7.8 billion and PAT 16% lower y/y to ₦6.2 billion. We value OKOMUOIL at a 12-month TP of ₦99.98 and place a HOLD on the stock.

Okomu Oil Palm - The year of the Rubber Brandspurng
Source: Company filings, Vetiva Research