China’s trade outlook to decline as air trade drags


  • Stable outlook for ocean trade to offset fall in
    air trade, diminishing overall trade outlook decline to index value of 45
  • Air imports momentum allude to shift in focus to
    strengthen productivity and competitiveness in its domestic economy
  • DHL Global Trade Barometer forecasts a mild
    decline in world trade, with most country indexes revealing a downward trend

CHINA – Media OutReach – 10 October 2019 – China’s September
trade outlook registered a four-point decline from June to an index value of 45,
according to data from the DHL Global Trade Barometer released by DHL, the
world’s leading logistics company. Mainly driven by a significant eight-point
fall in overall air trade, the bright spots of growth in air imports appear set
to carry the fall in exports.


The DHL Global Trade Barometer, an early
indicator of global trade developments calculated using artificial intelligence
and big data analytics, suggests that China’s air imports of Basic Raw
Materials, Machinery Parts, Chemicals & Products, and Temperature or
Climate Controlled Goods will be the biggest near-term contributor to trade
growth although challenges faced by air exports will negate that growth. September
2019’s ocean trade outlook remains unchanged from June’s index value of 47. 


“Whilst this quarter’s index indicates a
continued deceleration in China’s trade growth, it equally reveals an
interesting shift toward new opportunities to further strengthen the country’s
economy,” said Steve Huang, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Greater China. “The
increase in air imports of raw materials and machinery parts are in line with recent
to move from high-speed to high-quality growth, concentrating on the
adoption of artificial intelligence, smart manufacturing and renewable energy
to establish country-wide infrastructure projects. With borrowing costs lowered
to 4.2%
to shore up economic growth, the country’s trade continues to
maintain momentum as the government and businesses focus on boosting their
economic activity, productivity and competitiveness.”


for China consistent with stagnating world trade outlook

The Barometer’s results also suggest that world
trade remains at a crossroads and will further lose momentum over the next two
months, albeit at a slower pace compared to the previous quarter. The current
decline is triggered solely by a drop in air trade, with global ocean trade
outlook remaining stable. All seven nations surveyed reveal indexes below 50
points except for Japan and the UK, where the Barometer forecasts a positive
growth momentum for the two economies at 53 points each. In the Global Trade
Barometer methodology, an index value above 50 indicates positive growth, while
values below 50 indicate contraction.


“Worldwide, trade conflicts continue to smoulder and geopolitical
tensions are causing uncertainty. Against
this backdrop, global trade continues to develop surprisingly well. Although
the DHL Global Trade Barometer has further decreased — with an index value of
47 points –world trade is still closer to staying at its high level,” Tim
Scharwath, CEO of DHL Global Forwarding, Freight, said. “This strengthens our
conviction that globalization will go on and that logistics will remain its key
enabler in the future.”


Impact of US-Chinese tensions reflected in their
own results

trade conflict between China and the US continues to simmer, resulting in an
overall subdued trade mood, with US and China accounting for the most negative
trade outlooks in September. It is expected that US trade will shrink further,
remaining in negative territory with 45 points, despite having climbed one
point since June.


About the
Global Trade Barometer

Launched in January 2018, the DHL Global Trade
Barometer is an innovative and unique early indicator for the current state and
future development of global trade. It is based on large amounts of logistics
data that are evaluated with the help of artificial intelligence.


The indicator is published four times a year and
the next release date is scheduled for November 2019. For more information on
the DHL Global Trade Barometer, please visit:


Note to editors:

Trade tensions between the US and China has caused many repercussions. Find out which sectors in China have been
affected and what the trade dispute means for large companies operating in China.

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