She holds a Masters in Financial Economics from Kingston University London, a BA in Economics from Kwame Nkrumah University Kumasi Ghana and is an alumna of the European School of Economics.
With over 500 published economic notes under her belt, Chinwe has carved a niche as an outstanding economist renowned for consistently applying rigorous analysis in her work whilst ensuring Africa’s economic landscape is better understood. Her contributions have also supported high-level committees’ setup by development agencies like the World Bank.
Furthermore, she has been included in IMF Article IV consultations and is also an active member of the Africa Development Bank Meetings. Presently, she sits as a member of the board committee on research at the Nigeria Economic Summit Group and has served as Resident Economist for the research-based initiative, AiR – Africa Investment Roundtable.
“Chinwe brings in a wealth of experience in economic analysis and financial matters. Her broad experience and competence – within macroeconomics, research, as well as economic policy and reforms -positions her appropriately to provide strategic insights for our customers. We are certain she will be an excellent addition to the Coronation team, and we trust she will enjoy working with us.”
Funke Feyisitan-Ladimeji, Executive Director of Coronation Merchant Bank, said.
“Her broad experience and competence within macroeconomics, research, as well as in economic policy and reforms, positions her well to provide strategic insights for our customers. We are certain she is an excellent addition to the Coronation team and we look forward to her contributions,”
We see from the CBN’s most recent Quarterly Statistical Bulletin (QSB) that net current transfers in the balance of payments (BoP) slumped by -19.3% y/y to USD5.64bn in Q4 ’20 yet rose by 16.3% q/q.
If we take the last three quarters of last year (when Nigeria was exposed to the COVID-19 virus), the decline was 20.8%. Net workers’ remittances accounted for more than 70% of net transfers in Q4 although the proportion is usually above 90% of the total.
Although recent statistical revisions have added about USD500m to net transfers for both Q2 and Q3 ’20, Nigeria still lags many peers in the EM universe. In Kenya diaspora remittances in January-May 2021 of USD1.44bn were running 23.1% ahead of the year earlier period. Still higher growth in inward remittances has been posted by Pakistan and particularly, Bangladesh.
The two South Asian economies benefited from the cancellation of the Hajj for non-Saudi nationals. We note that a large share of the diaspora in both cases is based in the Gulf, which has taken a smaller hit from the virus than, for example, European countries. We also suspect that the diaspora may boost its support of friends and family at home if the government is making market and structural reforms. This applies to Bangladesh.
Additionally, they offer incentives. In Bangladesh the central bank pays a 2% bonus on all remittances. In March the CBN launched its own “Naira 4 dollar scheme”. The incentive may look smaller than that available in Bangladesh, for example. In reality, the CBN does not have a separate series for remittances and its QSB does not yet cover the launch of the scheme.
Explanations for Nigeria’s relative underperformance range from the concentration of its diaspora in Europe and the US to the exchange-rate regime in operation. The CBN is aware of the issue. So, in December it ruled that beneficiaries could take their remittances from licensed international money transfer operators (IMTOs) in US dollars. Separately, it increased the number of authorized IMTOs.
Net transfers in Q4 were again substantially higher than net inflows of foreign portfolio investment (-USD0.48bn), let alone those of foreign direct investment (-USD0.20bn).
The fall in transfers, taken in conjunction with the resilience of merchandise imports, more than compensates for the much-reduced outflow on services (Good Morning Nigeria, 10 June 2021). Nigeria’s current account therefore remains in deficit. A return to surplus in the near term would require a surge in oil export revenue.
According to the recent data from the bureau, which provides the breakdown of the biggest sources of Nigeria’s total imports and destinations of export shows that India has the highest percentage share in export trade for the first quarter in 2021.
NBS stated the all commodity group import index increased by 0.82 percent between January and March 2021. Similarly, the all commodity group export index rose by 0.31 percent between January and March 2021.
Below is a list showcasing 5 of Nigeria’s top trading partners (Merchandise Trade By Top Five Partners And By Major Commodities (N’million) Q4, 2020)
1. India
The total export to India in the period was valued at N488.1 billion or 16.8% of total export. The largest export commodity to India was Petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, crude valued at (N462.12 billion). This was followed by Natural gas liquefied, Cashew nuts in shell, Leather further prepared after tanning and Coconut valued at N11.61billion, N5.13billion, N3.17 billion and N1.10 billion respectively.
Imports from India were valued at N589.11billion, accounting for 8.6% of total imports. Import trade during the period was dominated by imported motorcycles and cycles (N86.67 billion), followed by Parts of Machinery for working Rubber (N67.81 billion), Other Antibiotics (N45.32billion) and others.
Photo by Andy Li on Unsplash
2. Spain
The value of total exports to Spain stood at N287.2billion or 9.9% of total export. The dominant export product was Petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, crude valued at N213.1billion. This was followed by Natural liquefied gas worth N62.3 billion and Leather further prepared after tanning valued at N8.6 billion. Others are well-fermented Cocoa beans and Technical specified Natural Rubber valued at N1.2billion and N0.5 billion respectively.
On the other hand, the value of imports from Spain during the quarter stood at N78.9billion. Motor Spirit (ordinary) ranked first in imports, valued at N20.82billion, and was followed by Mixed alkylbenzenes & mixed alkyl naphthalenes, valued at N13.75billion, Petroleum Bitumen (N6.38 billion) and Gypsum; anhydrite worth N5.81billion.
3. China
Export to China was valued at N190.1billion or 6.5% of total export in the period. This was largely dominated by exports of Petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, crude (N57.61billion), Natural Gas liquefied (N47.50billion) and Sesamum seeds (N23.11billion).
On the other hand, the value of imports from China stood at N2009.94billion representing 29.34% of total imports. The largest import commodity from China was Machines 4 the reception, conversion & transmission (N75.12 billion), T-shirts, Singlet and other Vests of Cotton (N62.60 billion), Other Herbicides (N60.35billion) and others.
4. The Netherlands
Nigeria’s export to the Netherlands in Q1, 2021 was valued at N160 billion or 5.5% of total export. Major export products were Petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, crude valued at N144.79billion. This was followed by Good Fermented Nigerian Cocoa Beans valued at N9.15billion, Superior quality Cocoa beans (N1.95billion) and other frozen shrimps (N1.06 billion).
However, the value of import stood at N726.09, with commodities imported including antibiotics valued at N329.23billion, Motor Spirit ordinary valued at N213.64billion, Gas oil (N71.85billion) and others.
5. France
In Q1 2021, Nigeria’s exports to France was valued at N133.4 billion, accounting for 4.6% of total export. Major commodities exported during the period were Natural gas, liquefied valued at N72.99 billion, Petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, crude (N55.55billion), Oil cake and other solid residues (N1.88 billion) and others.
On the imports side, the value of imports amounted to N128.41billion, with leading commodities including Motor spirit (N43.96billion), Malt not roasted (N10.26billion), Other parts of Aeroplanes and Helicopters (N7.74 billion). Other products imported were Milk and Cream powder (N4.88billion) and transmission apparatus (N3.46 billion).
Terms of Trade by Country of Regions
The All-Region group terms of trade index stood at 101.64 in January, 101.81 in February and 101.12 in March.
The terms of trade by region rose 0.17% in February but decreased by 0.67% in March. On average, the All region terms of trade decreased by 0.51% between January and March 2021 due to unfavourable terms of trade across all regions.
According to the report, the decline was driven by decreases in Boilers, machinery and chemical appliances, Base metals and articles of base metals and Mineral products.
The All commodity group import index increased by 0.82% driven mainly by an increase in the prices of Mineral products, Live animals; animal products and Animal and Vegetable fats and oils and other Cleavage products.
The All commodity group export index rose by 0.31% due to increases in the prices of Live animals; Animal products, Vegetable products as well as Animal and Vegetable fats and oil.
According to the bureau, the All region group export index rose 0.31% due to increases in the prices of exports to all regions. The All region group import index decreased by 0.82% due to decreases in prices of imports from America and Oceania.
The All region Terms of Trade, on average decreased by 0.51% due to unfavourable terms of trade in the regions of Asia and Oceania. The top five trading partners for Nigeria in Q1 2021 were India, Spain, China, the Netherlands and France. The major export was crude petroleum and natural gas. The major imports from these countries were Motor spirits, motorcycles and antibiotics.
Commodity Price Index January to March 2021
All commodity group import index
The All commodity group import index increased by 0.82% between January and March, 2021. This was driven mainly by an increase in the prices of Mineral products (1.53%), Live animals; animal products (1.38%) and Animal and Vegetable fats and oils and other Cleavage products (1.24%).
However, the index was negatively affected by declines in the prices of products of the chemical and Allies industries (-0.36%) as well as Wood and articles of wood, wood charcoal and articles (-0.29%).
Between January and February 2021, the All commodity group import price index increased by 0.75%. This was driven by increases in the import prices of Animal and Vegetable fats and oils and other Cleavage (1.77%), Mineral Products (1.63%) and Live animals; animal products (1.37%). The increase was, however, offset by a decline in the price of Products of the Chemical and Allied Industries (-0.73%) and Wood and articles of wood, wood charcoal and articles (-0.58).
Between February and March 2021, the All commodity group import index grew by 0.07%, driven by an increase in the prices of Base metals and articles of Base metals (0.51%), Boilers, Machinery and Appliances (0.50%) etc.
The index was negatively affected by the decline in the prices of Animal and vegetable fats and oils and another cleavage (-0.54%), prepared foodstuffs; beverages, spirits and Vinegar (-0.34%) and Plastic Rubber and articles thereof (-0.19%).
All commodity group export index
The All commodity group export index rose by 0.31% between January and March 2021. This was due to increases in the prices of Live animals; Animal products (2.26%), Vegetable products (2.09%) as well as Animal and Vegetable fats and oil (1.47%).
Between January and February 2021 the All commodity export price index rose by 0.92% as a result of marginal increases in the prices of prepared foodstuffs; beverages, spirits and Vinegar; tobacco (1.30$%), wood and articles of wood, wood charcoal and Articles (0.95%), Vehicles, aircraft and parts (0.94%), Base metals and articles (0.94%) etc.
Between February and March 2021, the All commodity group export index decreased marginally by 0.61%. This was driven by decreases in the prices of Wood and articles of wood, wood charcoal and articles (-0.65%), Vehicles, aircraft and parts thereof, (-0.64%), as well as base metals and articles of base metals (-0.64%).
The index was driven in the positive direction by increases in the prices of Live animals; animal products (1.35%), Vegetable products (1.19%) and Animal and vegetable fats and oil (0.57%) amongst others.
Terms of Trade by commodity
The All commodity Terms of Trade Index for January, February and March 2021 stood at 101.64, 101.81 and 101.12 respectively.
The All commodity group terms of trade increased by 0.17% in February but fell by 0.67% in March resulting in an average decline of 0.51% between January and March 2021. The decline was driven by decreases in the prices of Mineral products (-1.21%), base metals (-0.65%), and Boilers, machinery and chemical appliances (-0.46%) but was offset by increases in the prices of Vegetable products (2.0%), Live animals; animal products (0.88%) and Products of the chemical and allied industries (0.68%) respectively.
Between January and February 2021, All commodity terms of trade increased by 0.17%. The products that contributed to the increase were Products of the chemical and allied industries (1.65%), Wood and articles of wood, wood charcoal and articles (1.54%) and, marginally, Papermaking material; paper and paperboard, articles (0.75%).
It was offset by declines in the prices of Animal and vegetable fats and oils and other cleavage products (-0.85%), Mineral products (-0.71%) and Live animals; animal products (-0.46%).
Between February and March 2021 All commodity terms of trade decreased by 0.67%. This was as a result of decreases in the prices of Base metals and articles of base metals (-1.14%), Products of the chemical and allied industries (-0.97)%, Wood and articles of wood (-0.94%).
This was positively offset by Live animals; animal products (1.34%), Vegetable products (1.29%) and Animal and Vegetable fats and oils and other cleavage products (1.11%).
All-Region Group Export Index
All-Region export index increased by 0.31% between January and March 2021 due to marginal increases in prices of exports to all Regions as follow: Asia (0.33%), Europe (0.31%), Oceania (0.31%), America (0.31%), and Africa (0.26%). The month-on-month changes showed an increase of 0.92% in February and a decrease of 0.61% in March.
Between January and February 2021, the export index recorded an increase of 0.92% due to marginal increases in prices of exports to all regions: Africa (1.04%), Europe (0.92%), America (0.91%), Oceania (0.90%) and Asia (0.87%).
Between February and March 2021 the monthly change stood at -0.61%, driven by decreases in the prices of exports to all regions: Africa (-0.79%), America (-0.60%), Asia (0-53%), Europe (-0.61%) and Oceania (-0.59%).
All-Region Group Import Index
The All-Region import index rose 0.82% between January and March 2021 due to marginal increases in prices of imports from some Regions: Europe (1.16%), Asia (0.75%) and Africa 0.11%). However, prices of imports from America and Oceania during the period recorded marginal decreases of 0.26% and 0.36% respectively. The month-on-month changes showed an increase of 0.75% in February and 0.07% in March.
Between January and February 2021 the monthly change of 0.75% was due to increases in import prices from Europe (1.28%), Asia (0.46%) and Africa (0.22%), but was offset by declines in import prices from America (-0.52%) and Oceania (-0.73%).
Between February and March 2021, the All region import index recorded a slight increase of 0.07%, driven by higher prices of imports from Oceania (0.37%), Asia (0.29%) and America(0.26%). It was offset by a decline in the prices of imports from Africa (-0.11%), and Europe (-0.12%).
Terms of Trade by Country of Regions
The All-Region group terms of trade index stood at 101.64 in January, 101.81 in February and 101.12 in March.
The terms of trade by region rose 0.17% in February but decreased by 0.67% in March. On average, the All region terms of trade decreased by 0.51% between January and March 2021 due to unfavourable terms of trade across all regions.
Merchandise Trade By Top Five Partners And By Major Commodities (N’m) Q1, 2021
1. India
The total export to India in the period was valued at N488.1 billion or 16.8% of total export. The largest export commodity to India was Petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, crude valued at (N462.12 billion). This was followed by Natural gas liquefied, Cashew nuts in shell, Leather further prepared after tanning and Coconut valued at N11.61billion, N5.13billion, N3.17 billion and N1.10 billion respectively.
Imports from India were valued at N589.11billion, accounting for 8.6% of total imports. Import trade during the period was dominated by imported motorcycles and cycles (N86.67 billion), followed by Parts of Machinery for working Rubber (N67.81 billion), Other Antibiotics (N45.32billion) and others.
2. Spain
The value of total exports to Spain stood at N287.2billion or 9.9% of total export. The dominant export product was Petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, crude valued at N213.1billion. This was followed by Natural liquefied gas worth N62.3 billion and Leather further prepared after tanning valued at N8.6 billion. Others are well-fermented Cocoa beans and Technical specified Natural Rubber valued at N1.2billion and N0.5 billion respectively.
On the other hand, the value of imports from Spain during the quarter stood at N78.9billion. Motor Spirit (ordinary) ranked first in imports, valued at N20.82billion, and was followed by Mixed alkylbenzenes & mixed alkyl naphthalenes, valued at N13.75billion, Petroleum Bitumen (N6.38 billion) and Gypsum; anhydrite worth N5.81billion.
3. China
Export to China was valued at N190.1billion or 6.5% of total export in the period. This was largely dominated by exports of Petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, crude (N57.61billion), Natural Gas liquefied (N47.50billion) and Sesamum seeds (N23.11billion).
On the other hand, the value of imports from China stood at N2009.94billion representing 29.34% of total imports. The largest import commodity from China was Machines 4 the reception, conversion & transmission (N75.12 billion), T-shirts, Singlet and other Vests of Cotton (N62.60 billion), Other Herbicides (N60.35billion) and others.
4. The Netherlands
Nigeria’s export to the Netherlands in Q1, 2021 was valued at N160 billion or 5.5% of total export. Major export products were Petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, crude valued at N144.79billion. This was followed by Good Fermented Nigerian Cocoa Beans valued at N9.15billion, Superior quality Cocoa beans (N1.95billion) and other frozen shrimps (N1.06 billion).
However, the value of import stood at N726.09, with commodities imported including antibiotics valued at N329.23billion, Motor Spirit ordinary valued at N213.64billion, Gas oil (N71.85billion) and others.
5. France
In Q1 2021, Nigeria’s exports to France was valued at N133.4 billion, accounting for 4.6% of total export. Major commodities exported during the period were Natural gas, liquefied valued at N72.99 billion, Petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, crude (N55.55billion), Oil cake and other solid residues (N1.88 billion) and others.
On the imports side, the value of imports amounted to N128.41billion, with leading commodities including Motor spirit (N43.96billion), Malt not roasted (N10.26billion), Other parts of Aeroplanes and Helicopters (N7.74 billion). Other products imported were Milk and Cream powder (N4.88billion) and transmission apparatus (N3.46 billion).
A new study from Juniper Research has found that merchant losses to online payment fraud will exceed $206 billion cumulatively for the period between 2021 and 2025.
This figure, equivalent to almost 10 times Amazon’s net income in the 2020 financial year, demonstrates why merchants must make combatting fraud, through the use of machine learning-based fraud prevention platforms, an immediate priority.
The research identified that the pandemic has led to a surge in synthetic identity and account takeover fraud, which threaten the security of entire accounts, alongside associated payment data. The research recommends payment fraud detection vendors focus on partnering on data agreements now, to maximise the data available to machine learning algorithms; boosting chances of identifying fraudulent transactions.
For more insights, download the free whitepaper: Fighting Online Payment Fraud in 2021
Remote Physical Goods Are Leading Fraud Area of Concern
The new research, Online Payment Fraud: Emerging Threats, Segment Analysis & Market Forecasts 2021-2025, found that remote physical goods purchases are the leading cause of online payment fraud; accounting for over 47% of fraud losses in 2021. The research urges payment fraud prevention vendors to offer services based on digital identity verification, to boost security and combat the surge in account takeover fraud.
Research co-author Nick Maynard explains: ‘Given the large amounts of online payment transactions globally, it is essential that this transactional data is leveraged to continually detect fraudulent transactions. Payment providers who can use this data to identify new fraud sources and tactics will be those who prove to be the most resilient to this significant market loss.’
Unprecedented Fraud Risks Leading to Increased Detection Spending
The research also found that spending on fraud detection and prevention platform services will exceed $11.8 billion globally in 2025, from $9.3 billion in 2021. Accordingly, the research recommends that fraud detection and prevention vendors focus on building platforms that can cover all the emerging channels of payment traffic, including new areas such as open banking payments, supported by data partnerships, and backed by large-scale machine learning, to achieve the best outcomes.
The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and the ways in which it has changed our lives and the way we do business has been well documented. 2020 saw a level of crisis management focus within corporate organisations that was unparalleled in modern times.
The sudden and very real crisis facing companies revealed some interesting and thought-provoking dynamics, especially in terms of how entities, big and small, had planned for and chose to respond to a real-life crisis event.
Ordinarily, we would expect to see a crisis event affect an entity or group of companies across a relatively small geographic area; but with Covid-19 the effects were global and had the focus of every corporate entity, especially those with a footprint outside of their homeland operating environment.
This article will examine some of the most prevalent factors that impacted our clients across the African continent during those early crisis-driven days and how that has shaped thinking going forward.
Size is not an indicator of preparedness
During the early days of the pandemic, many corporates were searching around for, and hopefully finding, their emergency planning documentation. It became apparent that some were able to quickly refer to and implement plans that had long since been put in place by global or regional planning teams.
In the most part, this proactive preparation was extended to ensuring that plans were functional and tested, manifesting in a relatively calm and efficient crisis response protocol.
Some larger companies had packed up and evacuated their locations within 24 hours of their headquarters deciding to scale down operations and withdraw staff. The infrastructure and indeed funding behind these companies was a key factor and provided a platform from which to operate and withdraw efficiently. Others were left floundering.
There were, in some cases, no planning or documentation in place: from the outset, decision making was unstructured and often ‘off-the-cuff’, with dominant mid- and senior-level executives having their voices heard in the absence of process driven leadership. You would perhaps expect this of small or local businesses, but it was notable that many larger organisations had little or nothing in place.
Discussions revealed that budgetary constraints were the most common reason for a lack of planning, whether that was a reluctance to invest in consultancy support as they had not identified the need, or more often, a lack of recognition of the value a security manager would bring the wider business.
The role of the security manager was frequently a subheading under the job description of the HR or General Manager. Such individuals are rarely adequately trained or equipped to provide crisis management support.
Partial planning is “no planning”
In many cases, we observed crisis management plans being drawn up for the first time. It highlighted those that had produced plans using under-skilled or poorly-trained individuals in order to fill a compliance requirement rather than actually assist in a crisis.
The content of the ‘tick box’ documents that many companies were utilising served little purpose and the documentation that should provide a decision-making framework was often ignored. Many plans were not rehearsed or tested and were immediately found to be flawed when required. Ad hoc decision making, therefore, became the norm.
This of course defeats the purpose of having a plan in the first place and provides little guidance or direction, resulting in poor, uninformed decisions being made.
Refusal to acknowledge the problem is a weakness
There are always various local dynamics at play wherever you work in Africa. One of the major concerns in Lagos and across Nigeria, during the first wave of the pandemic when the country was in lockdown for all but essential travel, was that the level of social unrest would escalate to a breakdown in law and order.
This could have seriously affected the safety and security of law-abiding citizens. Despite the increasing level of a low-scale petty crime arising from the increasing levels of economic hardship seen across the city, many executives refused to accept that the security situation would further deteriorate, and openly blocked attempts to enhance security pending a deterioration in the operating environment.
Fortunately, the lockdown was lifted before the situation deteriorated to the point where law enforcement was no longer in control. It does highlight, however, how poor decision making could easily put businesses and lives in danger. The importance of critical, decisive decision making was further highlighted during the EndSARS riots in Nigeria during October 2020 when emergency plans were once again stress tested under real conditions and the frailties of poor planning became evident.
Indecision is no decision and the wrong decision
Largely driven by factors involving poor planning and unclear policy, the early Covid months saw many corporates unable to make decisions in good time, resulting in operating dynamics changing and the decision-making process for a particular issue becoming irrelevant.
Although this did not always have a negative outcome it did result in families being stranded in Africa rather than travelling home as air corridors were closed whilst decisions were being made.
This could have resulted in serious consequences had the pandemic gripped Africa even harder than it did and local medical facilities were overwhelmed. The requirement for clear, timely decision making was very evident.
There is no knight in shining armour
Those corporates that made executive decisions early to return international employees to their home countries and implement flexible travel and work approaches to ensure staff were not placed at unnecessary risk, removed themselves from Africa before the air corridors closed.
They did so with clear plans and concise decision making in play. Many of those that remained in order to see ‘what happened next’ had done so voluntarily with the consent of their companies. In some instances this was fine: companies managed their staff appropriately, keeping them informed and planning for an escalation in criminality by centralising staff and locating teams in various hotel bubbles.
Others were not so well prepared for the reality of being locked in country with no air corridors and demanded evacuations and relocations be initiated. The concept of airspace being locked down was not widely understood; the consensus being that non-commercial flights could come and go. Of course, the reality was somewhat different.
All flights required government clearance and the concept of foreign governments providing (and often not providing) evacuation flights for its citizens was suddenly the number one topic of conversation. Control Risks had advised ‘go early or be prepared to lock down as you will be unable to move for some time.
These words were well understood, but the reality of what that meant was not appreciated until companies, families and individuals realised they were highly exposed if the pandemic hit hard and or social unrest became a significant issue.
A new way of working equals new problems
The work-from-home policy adopted by the majority of companies across the region resulted in new challenges for businesses looking after their personnel. International and local staff, especially those living outside of compounds, were suddenly much more exposed to criminality than usual.
Some companies provided additional police guarding support and some centralised personnel in estates or hotels in order to keep people together and ensure their safety. Some companies left their employees to make their own arrangements, leaving personnel hopelessly exposed if widespread social unrest had become an issue.
Duty of care during the early days of Covid was not always what it should have been as many businesses fought for their very existence. IT systems were also stretched to the limit. Local bandwidth could not cope with the capacity required by everyone working from home and, more recently, we have seen the prevalence of cyber threats as IT protocols normally adopted as part of the office culture are readily ignored in a home working scenario.
This is an area where we expect to see continued vulnerability for our clients across the region.
Conclusion
These observations have been made by the Control Risks team across the region during the early days of the pandemic in particular. In reality, many of the worst fears about the impact of the pandemic on African countries appear not to have materialised, and the situation did not deteriorate in the manner many had feared.
As a result, a status of relative normality resumed fairly quickly. Crisis mode was quickly switched off and forgotten, and return-to-work protocols became the new hot topic of conversation. We know that many of our clients learnt from those early decision-making days and improved their systems, processes, and internal training mechanisms to ensure that in the future they are as well or better prepared for the ‘next event’.
We also know that come the next event we will likely have many of the same conversations that we had in early 2020. It might not always be that failing to prepare is preparing to fail, but in crisis management terms it is certainly going to make a difficult situation a lot worse.
The Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) has a significant impact on the Nigeria’s economy. Though the industry contributes less than 10% to the country’s gross domestic product, it contributes about 90% of the foreign exchange earnings and 60% of total income.
Consequently, any adverse change in the industry will have a big and long-term impact on government finances. This is the reason why successive governments have remained focused on the sector despite various discussions on diversifying the economy.
For the past 20 years, there have been various attempts at reforming the industry. However, none of these efforts has yielded any tangible result until the introduction of the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) 2020. Prior to now, there were various iterations of the PIB. The PIB started as an omnibus bill and was later divided into 4 separate bills before emerging in 2020 as a consolidated bill.
It is a fact that previous attempts at passing the PIB in 2009, 2012 and 2018 failed because of factors such as lack of ownership, misalignment of interests between the National Assembly and the Executive, perceived erosion of ministerial powers, stiff opposition by the petroleum host communities and push back by investors on the perceived uncompetitive provisions in those versions of the bill.
Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) 2020 – A Game Changer?
The PIB 2020 is set to address all the issues to the extent possible. It should be noted that the present administration has demonstrated unparalleled commitment to passing the bill. However, it is important that we do not just pass any law but a law that is competitive, balanced, fair, reasonable and realistic.
The jury is out on whether the PIB will achieve these objectives. One thing is clear – government has tried to strike a balance between immediate revenues demands and the need to attract long-term investment for the industry.
This has become extremely crucial when one considers the fact that only 4% of the $70billion investments made in Africa’s oil and gas industry between 2015 and 2019 was in respect of Nigeria even though it is the biggest producer and has the largest reserves on the continent. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, only $53.5m or 0.55% of total investment of $9.680billion in Nigeria in 2020 was made in the industry.
If we must achieve our ambition of 40 billion barrels of oil in reserves and 4million barrels of oil per day, we need to attract new investments into the sector. This task has even become more daunting in the light of the various challenges facing the industry, especially with respect to the renewed focus on renewables and energy transition.
The oil in the ground is of no use to the country if it cannot monetize it. Therefore, the PIB must lead to a massive transformation of the industry and succeed in attracting the desired investment required to reposition the industry. Otherwise, Nigeria’s production will continue to decline significantly.
Hopefully, the provisions of the PIB will be enough to stimulate the desired investment though it has not addressed the issue of energy transition from fossil fuel to clean energy. The key question is whether those investments would pay off or would they be a risky bet?
Ford sales of electrified vehicles expanded 117 percent in June, capping off a new first-half sales record on sales of 56,570 vehicles. That’s a new all-time sales record driven by new products. Mustang Mach-E sales totaled 12,975 vehicles, while F-150 PowerBoost Hybrid added an additional 17,039 vehicles to the total. Escape Hybrid and Escape Plug-in Hybrid sales totaled 15,642 – up 45.9 percent over last year.
Record turn rates and new products drive record transaction pricing. Average transaction prices at Ford were up approximately $6,400 over a year ago at $47,800 per vehicle. Ford’s Mach-E expanded its sales 26.7 percent compared to May, while Bronco Sport is producing some of the highest transaction pricing in its segment, while turning on dealer lots in just 15 days.
Andrew Frick, vice president, Ford Sales U.S. and Canada commented,
“Through June of this year, Ford retail sales were up 10.7 percent. With constrained inventories and record turn rates in the second quarter, we have been working closely with our dealers gathering retail orders, which are up 16-fold over last year. Reservations for F-150 Lightning have now surpassed 100,000 since the truck was first shown in May, while Ford’s sales of electrified vehicles produced a new all-time first-half sales record with 56,570 vehicles sold – up 117 percent over a year ago.”
Retail orders for Ford and Lincoln vehicles are up more than 16-fold this year over last. With vehicles turning at record rates on dealer lots, Ford, along with its dealers, have worked to expand retail orders which are being filled as semiconductor chips become available.
Ford’s overall retail truck sales expanded 2.6 percent in the first half of the year, totaling 420,403 pickups. With tight inventories, F-Series sales totaled 362,032 trucks, while Ranger had its best first half since 2005 on total pickup sales of 58,371.
Strong incremental growth of Bronco Sport and Mustang MachE propelled Ford brand retail SUVs to their best first-half performance in 20 years. Ford brand retail SUVs were up 37.0
percent over a year ago on overall sales of 391,190 SUVs. The all-new Bronco Sport sales totaled 60,514 SUVs, with Mustang MachE adding 12,975 SUVs. Escape, Explorer and Expedition all continued to expand their sales, adding to Ford brand SUV growth.
Lincoln SUVs posted a new first-half sales record. Lincoln’s entire SUV lineup was up in the first half of the year. At retail, Lincoln SUV sales were up 23.3 percent on total sales of 46,018 SUVs.
The suspension was effected to prevent trading in the shares of the Company with effect from 1 July 2021 being the effective date of the Scheme of Merger between Chemical and Allied Products Plc (CAP) and Portland Paints (the Scheme) wherein it is proposed that CAP will become the surviving entity and Portland Paints will be absorbed.
Consequently, the suspension is required for the purpose of determining the Company’s shareholders that will qualify to receive the Scheme consideration in preparation for the eventual delisting of Portland Paints from the Daily Official List of the Nigerian Exchange Limited.
This means holders of the company’s equities would not be able to trade them on the floor of the exchange during the time of the embargo. The suspension became effective on Friday, July 02, 2021, according to a circular issued by the management of the bourse to stockbrokers, having failed to file their Audited Financial Statements for the year ended 31 December 2020.
According to Rule 3.1, Rules for Filing of Accounts and Treatment of Default Filing, (Default Filing Rules), which provides:
“If an Issuer fails to file the relevant accounts by the expiration of the Cure Period, The Exchange will:
a) Send to the Issuer a “Second Filing Deficiency Notification” within two (2) business days after the end of the Cure Period;
b) Suspend trading in the Issue’s securities; and
c) Notify the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Market within twenty- four (24) hours of the suspension”.
In accordance with the Default Filing Rules set forth above, the suspension of trading in the shares of the above-mentioned companies will only be lifted upon the submission of the relevant accounts, provided NGX Regulation Limited is satisfied that the accounts comply with all applicable rules of the Exchange.
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