Guinness Nigeria – Chasing Growth in Spirits

Meristem
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Guinness Nigeria – Chasing Growth in Spirits

Management Reiterates Commitment to Strategy

For most investors, Guinness Nigeria second-quarter results (Full Year is June) still leaves a lot to be desired from the brewer, particularly after the underwhelming end to the last financial year.

Cumulatively, H1:2021 revenue is up 5.89% YoY to NGN72.35bn, building on the recovery recorded in the prior quarter (revenue grew 11.62% YoY) when restrictions on on-trade sales channels were lifted.

On a standalone basis, however, Q2 numbers look less encouraging, considering that support came from price upward adjustments on selected Spirits brands to cope with higher excise duties and the effect of festivity- associated demand (October–December is historically GUINNESS’ strongest sales period).

Guinness Nigeria Declares N841.64m Q1 loss as mounting input costs squeezed earnings

Adjusting for both factors leaves us with a clearer picture of the brewer’s relatively inferior performance. Even so, management has reiterated commitment to its strategy of focusing investments around its high margin spirits portfolio (including International premium spirits and mainstream spirits) – which now jointly accounts for c. 25% of overall revenue (vs. 15% as at 2018FY).

With the exception of Brand Guinness, sales growth was positive across the brewers’ product categories (Brand Guinness: -1%, Mainstream spirits: +46%, Premium Spirits: +12%, Malts: +5% and RTDs: +1%).

Although we remain concerned about topline growth sustainability, over H2:2021 we foresee slightly better numbers (due to a lower base from H1:2020). Thus, we have reviewed our revenue forecast upwards to NGN109.59bn – a 5.00% growth from 2020FY levels.

Cost to Sales now at 74.31%

Guinness Nigeria’s production costs increased by NGN30.75bn in Q2:2021, pushing overall costs to NGN53.77bn and cost to sales up to 74.31% (vs. 70.95% in H1:2020 and much higher than its 6-year historical average of 62.97%).

Gross margins bore the brunt of a faster rise in costs relative to sales, tumbling by 337bps year on year to 25.69%. Although operating expenses provided some respite, thanks to lower marketing (-4.14% YoY) and distribution (-13.17% YoY) expenses, net finance charges and a higher tax bill (including a one-off tax charge) dragged PAT lower.

While finance income was up 16.34% to NGN335.28mn, the 1.49x YoY hike in net finance costs to N2.42bn was driven largely by a 44.09% jump in finance costs to NGN2.76bn (owing to the remeasurement of FCY balances).

Following the retirement of Letters of credit and short-term loans in the prior quarter, total interest-bearing liabilities dropped even further to N11.65bn (from NGN13.28bn in Q1:2021 and NGN22.80bn in 2020FY). These interest-bearing liabilities are now made up of related party loans of NGN8.99bn (maturing in May 2021) and NGN2.66bn worth of commercial papers.

Though the brewer ended the quarter with NGN524.22mn in profits, losses from the preceding quarter dragged PAT for H1:2021 to negative NGN317.42mn (vs. NGN1.32bn in profits in H1:2020). For 2021FY, we forecast bottom-line would settle at negative NGN795.48mn.

Financial Highlights (NGN billion) GUINNESS NIGERIA PLC H1:2021 Unaudited Results

Guinness Nigeria - Chasing Growth in Spirits Brandspurng

Liquidity Ratios Show Mild Improvement

GUINNESS’ working capital position remained weak at the end of the period, with short-term liabilities outweighing liquid assets by NGN4.82bn.

However, current and quick ratios improved from previous levels, ticking up to 0.93x and 0.61x (vs. 0.89x and 0.40x respectively), reflecting slightly stronger growth in current assets (vs. current liabilities) and improved cover for its short term obligations, even as management continues to pursue tighter credit terms and improved receivables collection.

Outlook and Recommendation

For 2021FY, we forecast EBITDA would come in at NGN14.25bn and maintain a target EV/EBITDA of 1.24x. We arrived at a price target of NGN16.99 – an implied downside of 10.58% to yesterday’s (4th February 2021) closing price. Thus, we place a SELL rating on the counter.

Global Food Prices at its highest level since July 2014 – Report

Esan Bolaji
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Global Food Prices at its highest level since July 2014 – Report

FAO Food Price Index up 4.3 percent to reach the highest level since July 2014, while worldwide cereal stocks are set to drop sharply

Global food prices rose in January for the eighth consecutive month, led by cereals, vegetable oils and sugar, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).

FAO’s Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in the international prices of commonly-traded food commodities and was released today, averaged 113.3 points in January, marking a 4.3 percent increase from December 2020 and reaching its highest level since July 2014.

World food prices rise for 7th month in a row in December

The FAO Cereal Price Index showed a sharp 7.1 percent monthly increase, led by international maize prices, which surged 11.2 percent and are now 42.3 percent above their January 2020 level, reflecting increasingly tight global supply amid substantial purchases by China and lower-than-expected production and stock estimates in the United States of America as well as a temporary suspension of maize export registrations in Argentina.

Wheat prices rose 6.8 percent, driven by strong global demand and expectations of reduced sales by the Russian Federation when its wheat export duty doubles in March 2021. Robust demand from Asian and African buyers underpinned strong rice prices.

The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index increased by 5.8 percent in the month to its highest level since May 2012. Drivers included lower-than-expected palm oil production in Indonesia and Malaysia due to excessive rainfall and ongoing shortages in the migrant labour force, and prolonged strikes in Argentina reducing export availability for soy oil.

The FAO Sugar Price Index was 8.1 percent higher than in December, as robust global import demand spurred concerns about lower availabilities due to worsening crop prospects in the European Union, the Russian Federation and Thailand, as well as drier-than-normal weather conditions in South America. Rising crude oil prices and a stronger Brazilian Real also provided support to international sugar prices.

The FAO Dairy Price Index increased by 1.6 percent, underpinned by China’s high purchases ahead of the country’s upcoming New Year holiday festivities amid seasonally lower exportable supplies in New Zealand.

The FAO Meat Price Index was up 1.0 percent from December, led by brisk global imports of poultry meat, especially from Brazil, amid avian influenza outbreaks that have constrained output and exports from several European countries.

Sharp drops in world cereal stocks foreseen

FAO also issued today the Cereals Supply and Demand Brief, a regular update on global production, consumption, trade and inventory trends.

On the production side, FAO’s new estimates for 2020 point to record wheat and rice production. Looking ahead to 2021 cereal output, early prospects indicate a likely modest increase for winter wheat crops in the northern hemisphere, buoyed by acreage increases in France, India, the Russian Federation and the U.S.A.

Maize output in the southern hemisphere is expected to decline somewhat in Argentina and Brazil from record highs but remain above-average levels. The production outlook in South Africa and neighbouring countries are favourable.

At the same time, this month’s forecasts point to larger volumes of world trade and a sharp decline in global cereal stocks.

Globally, cereal utilization in 2020/21 is now forecast at 2 761 million tonnes, up 52 million tonnes from the previous season. Leading the increase is robust use of coarse grains for feed in China. The worldwide utilization of wheat and rice are forecast to rise by 0.7 percent and 1.8 percent, respectively, during the year ahead.

Global cereal stocks are forecast to decline by 2.2 percent to 801 million tonnes, their lowest level in five years. That would bring the world stocks-to-use ratio of cereals down to 28.3 percent, a seven-year low. The new figures reflect a massive downward adjustment to maize inventories in China.

World cereal trade in 2020/21 is now forecast at 465.2 million tonnes, a hefty 5.7 percent expansion from the previous season’s record high. The raised estimates reflect large purchases of maize by China, particularly from the U.S.A. International trade in rice is anticipated to expand even more, by 7.9 percent, reflecting the strong growth of exports by India.

The new FAO forecasts incorporate the results of a review – back to 2013/14 – of the maize supply-and-demand sheet for China. The country’s unexpectedly large purchases of maize in recent weeks point to a much higher demand for feed and lower domestic supplies than earlier anticipated, which is likely linked to the swift recovery in pork production after the African Swine Fever outbreak.

World cereal production forecast raised but stocks now foreseen to fall sharply and trade to exceed earlier predictions

Esan Bolaji
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World cereal production forecast raised but stocks now foreseen to fall sharply and trade to exceed earlier predictions

The FAO forecast for global cereal production in 2020 is raised while early prospects for this year point to a modest increase in wheat production in the northern hemisphere but a decline in maize production in the southern hemisphere.

The latest forecast for world cereal production in 2020 stands at nearly 2 744 million tonnes, up slightly (0.1 percent) from the previous report in December. Among the major cereals, the forecast for world wheat production has been revised upward by 4.8 million tonnes to an all-time high of 766.5 million tonnes.

World cereal production forecast raised but stocks now foreseen to fall sharply and trade to exceed earlier predictions Brandspurng

The increase since the previous report rests mostly on better-than-expected yields that boosted production to its second-highest level on record in both Australia and Canada while wheat production in Iraq is also lifted to reflect the latest official estimates.

The forecast for world rice production in 2020 has also been raised, by 2.2 million tonnes, to 510.6 million tonnes, up 1.8 percent year-on-year and marking an all-time high.

World cereal production forecast raised but stocks now foreseen to fall sharply and trade to exceed earlier predictions Brandspurng1

The revision mainly stems from better than previously anticipated 2020 yield outturns in China (Mainland), the Philippines and Guinea, although upward, area-based, historical revisions were also introduced for the Democratic Republic of Congo and Venezuela (the Bolivarian Republic of).

By contrast, the forecast for world coarse grains production has been trimmed by nearly 5 million tonnes, reflecting sizeable cuts to maize production estimates in the United States of America and Ukraine, owing to poor weather conditions that curtailed yields.

Looking ahead to 2021 cereal output, early production prospects for winter wheat crops in the northern hemisphere indicate a modest increase this year. In the United States of America, encouraged by higher prices, winter wheat acreage increased by 5 percent year-on-year.

However, continued dry weather has partially curbed prospects, and field reports confirm inferior crop conditions compared to the average. In the European Union, conducive rainfall and mild temperatures, in combination with the increased planted area, particularly in France, indicate a likely strong production recovery from the poor 2020 harvest.

In the Russian Federation, 2021 winter wheat acreage is up on a yearly basis, surpassing initial expectations. Although warm and dry weather in December raised the risk of winterkill and possibly higher abandonment rates, heavy snowfall in January partly abated these concerns.

In India, the area sown to wheat increased to a record level, underpinned by strong prices and continued government support, as well as satisfactory crop conditions, owing to well-distributed monsoon rains, which portend good yields in 2021.

Optimistic conditions also prevail in Pakistan, where wheat sowings are above average, driven by government support, in the form of subsidized access to inputs, and higher crop prices.

Based on January field reports, wheat crop conditions in China are favourable and production in 2021 is expected to remain near average levels. In Turkey, the leading producer in the Near East region, less-than-ideal weather conditions are constraining crop prospects.

In the southern hemisphere, 2021 coarse grain crops are expected to be harvested from the second quarter of the year. In Brazil, 2021 maize production is officially forecast at 102.3 million tonnes, slightly short of the 2020 record output but well above the five-year average.

The outlook is based on a likely increase in the second season harvest that would offset a lower first-season crop due to dry conditions and reduced planted area. Similarly, maize production in Argentina is set to decline in 2021 from the 2020 record level, due to rainfall deficits in main producing provinces, but is still foreseen at an above-average level.

In South Africa, driven by better remunerative prices, maize plantings have increased and the production outlook has been further bolstered by favourable yield prospects owing to good rainfall. Production expectations in neighbouring countries are similarly favourable, though recent cyclones have increased the risk of crop losses.

Cereal utilization, stocks and trade in 2020/21

Prompted by China’s unexpectedly large imports of maize so far this season, FAO decided to undertake a further review of its maize supply and demand balance sheet for China.

In addition to China’s substantial increase in maize imports, persistently higher domestic maize prices (as compared to international prices) on top of a swift recovery in pork production from the African swine fever (ASF) disease point to much higher feed utilization in China than earlier anticipated, and hence a much greater drawdown of stocks than earlier estimates suggested. Building on the official production and trade estimates, it was necessary to make balance corrections not only for the current season but also for previous seasons, starting from the 2013/14 marketing season. Indeed, given China’s importance in terms of its share in global maize stocks and consumption, the adjustments also heavily effected FAO’s estimates for world utilization and stocks.

World cereal utilization in 2020/21 is now forecast at 2 761 million tonnes, following a 17.0 million-tonne upward revision to the December forecast. At this revised level, the forecast for world cereal utilization is up 52 million tonnes (1.9 percent) from the previous season.

At 1 493 million tonnes, global coarse grain utilization in 2020/21 is forecast 37 million tonnes (2.6 percent) above the previous season’s level and up as much as 16.6 million tonnes since December on greater-than-earlier-expected feed use, especially in China.

World utilization of maize in 2020/21 is forecast to reach 1 179 million tonnes, up 21.4 million tonnes (1.8 percent) from 2019/20, of which the year-on-year growth in feed use of maize in China is now projected at 5 percent, reaching 190 million tonnes, up 15.5 million tonnes from the previous forecast in December.

FAO’s forecast for total utilization of wheat in 2020/21 has been lowered by 1.5 million tonnes from December, but, at 756 million tonnes, still stands 5.4 million tonnes (0.7 percent) above the 2019/20 level.

This month’s downward revision stems mostly from lower forecasts for feed use in the European Union as a result of high prices causing a substitution to other coarse grains for feed.

Global rice utilization in 2020/21 is now pegged at 512.1 million tonnes, up 1.8 percent from 2019/20 and 1.9 million tonnes more than previously reported following upward revisions to food intake forecasts for the Americas and Africa and to feed use in China.

FAO’s new forecast for world cereal stocks stands at 802 million tonnes, down as much as 64.3 million tonnes from December and 17.8 million tonnes (2.2 percent) from their opening levels and the smallest in five years.

At this level, the world stocks-to-use ratio of cereals would decline from 29.7 percent in 2019/20 to 28.3 percent in 2020/21, marking a seven-year low.

Following this month’s downward revision of 66.6 million tonnes (concerning mostly maize inventories and to a lesser extent also stocks of sorghum and other coarse grains), world coarse grain stocks will likely fall by 25 million tonnes (6.9 percent) from their opening levels, to reach 336 million tonnes.

The year-on-year contraction stems from a massive downward adjustment to maize inventories in China, which are now pegged at around 139 million tonnes, down nearly 54 million tonnes from the December forecast and 11.6 million tonnes below their opening levels.

In addition to China, FAO forecasts for maize inventories in Argentina, the European Union, India, and, most significantly, the United States of America, were also trimmed since December.

In contrast to coarse grains, world wheat inventories are forecast to increase by 7.2 million tonnes (2.6 percent) above opening levels, reaching 284.3 million tonnes following an upward revision of 1.4 million tonnes from December, mainly on the expectation of larger stocks in Australia and the Russian Federation.

The bulk of the year-on-year increase in wheat stocks is seen in China, as excluding China, global wheat inventories are set to decrease for the third consecutive year. World rice stocks at the close of 2020/21 are forecast at 181.9 million tonnes, on par with their opening levels and 800 000 tonnes more than anticipated in December.

Upward revisions to the stock forecast were introduced primarily for China this month, followed by Bangladesh, while carry-over expectations were cut namely for India and the United States of America.

The FAO forecast for world cereal trade in 2020/21 has been raised by as much as 10.6 million tonnes since December to 465.2 million tonnes, representing a hefty 25-million-tonne (5.7 percent) expected expansion from the previous season’s record high.

Trade-in all major cereals is foreseen to increase in 2020/21. Continued large purchases of maize and barley by China, to meet rising feed demand has pushed up the coarse grains 2020/21 (July/June) trade forecast by nearly 10 million tonnes since the previous forecast, now pegged at a record 232.3 million tonnes, up almost 22 million tonnes (10.2 percent) from last year’s level.

Maize imports by China have been revised up by 10 million tonnes since December to an all-time high of 20 million tonnes. The revision reflects exceptionally large purchases in recent weeks, primarily from the United States of America. World wheat trade in 2020/21 (July/June) is forecast at 184.5 million tonnes, nearly unchanged from December and similar to the 2019/20 estimated level.

This month’s major revisions include an upward adjustment of 1 million tonnes to China’s purchases, offsetting a cut of 1 million tonnes in imports by Iraq on higher domestic production in 2020 than had been predicted earlier.

International trade in rice is anticipated to expand by 7.9 percent in 2021 (January-December) to 48.4 million tonnes, which is 800 000 tonnes more than forecast in December.

The revision reflects prospects of continued strong growth in exports by India; while on the import side, it mirrors expectations of an upturn in purchases by the Far East, led by Bangladesh, following the approval of duty remissions by the country.

Banking Remains Resilient

United Capital Research
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Banking Remains Resilient

The Nigerian banking sector dynamics continued to change in 2020. By the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) estimates, the financial services sector came through as one of the best performing sectors in the economy despite the recession.

The sector printed a 6.89% growth in Q3-2020 (Vs. -3.1% expansion for the broader economy). Notably, total assets for banks saw double-digit growth, thanks to the massive expansion in cash & cash equivalents, amid increased system liquidity and exchange rate devaluation.

Industry NPLs sustained a downtrend so far in 2020

Banking Remains Resilient Brandspurng
Sources: CBN, NBS, United Capital Research

With pressure from the CBN on banks to lend, Nigerian banks expanded their loan books by a massive N4.0trn while interest rates on lending and deposits fell to record levels.

While previous episodes of aggressive increase in loan growth appear to have been associated with a surge in Non-Performing loans ratios, it is interesting to note that industry NPLs sustained a downtrend so far in 2020, sliding from 9.3% in Q2-2019 to 5.7% as at Q3- 2020, despite the threat of Covid-19 pandemic on asset quality across the sector.

Equities market closed south as bears dominated banking stocks
Photo by Mark Finn on Unsplash

Notably, this number was partly moderated by the CBN’s stance for banks to grant a forbearance period to customers at the start of the pandemic.

Going forward, we imagine that banks will be compelled to sustain credit expansion to the real sector with the main beneficiary being the Manufacturing, General Commerce, Agric and Forestry, Construction and ICT sectors considering the CBN’s increased efforts to reduce credit expansion to the oil & gas sector while expanding credit to other sectors.

Nevertheless, we think asset quality concerns in the sector would possibly worsen as the loan book continues to expand. As such, NPL ratios are likely to retrace northwards.

Ebola Resurfaces in North Kivu in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Esan Bolaji
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Ebola Resurfaces in North Kivu in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

07 February 2021 – Brazzaville – The Ministry of Health of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) today announced that a new case of Ebola has been detected in Butembo, a city in North Kivu Province, where a previous outbreak was declared over in June 2020.

The Butembo branch of the National Institute of Biomedical Research (INRB) confirmed Ebola in samples taken from a patient with Ebola-like symptoms who had sought treatment at a local health centre. The woman was the wife of an Ebola survivor. She has since died.

Ebola Resurfaces in North Kivu in the Democratic Republic of the Congo Brandspurng1
Photo by Dimitri Karastelev

Butembo was one of the epicentres of the previous Ebola outbreak in eastern DRC. It is not unusual for sporadic cases to occur following a major outbreak.

Due to the enormous local capacity built in the previous outbreak, the North Kivu Provincial health authorities are leading the current response with support from the Ministry of Health and the World Health Organization (WHO).

Ebola Resurfaces in North Kivu in the Democratic Republic of the Congo Brandspurng
Resurgence of Ebola in North Kivu in the Democratic Republic of the Congo | www.brandspurng.com

WHO provided training to laboratory technicians, contact tracers, local vaccination teams and reached out to community groups to raise Ebola awareness as well as put in place an Ebola survivor programme.

“The expertise and capacity of local health teams have been critical in detecting this new Ebola case and paving the way for a timely response,” said Dr Matshidiso Moeti, WHO Regional Director for Africa. “WHO is providing support to local and national health authorities to quickly trace, identify and treat the contacts to curtail the further spread of the virus.”

WHO epidemiologists are on the ground investigating the case. Already more than 70 contacts have been identified. Disinfection of sites visited by the patient is also ongoing.

Samples from the confirmed Ebola patient have been sent to the National Institute of Biomedical Research’s main laboratory in Kinshasa for genome sequencing to identify the strain of the Ebola and to determine its link to the previous outbreak.

The DRC’s 10th Ebola outbreak which lasted for nearly two years was the second largest in the world and by the time it ended, there were 3481 cases, 2299 deaths and 1162 survivors.

Response to the outbreak was particularly challenging due to insecurity that disrupted emergency efforts.

Nigeria Upstream Oil & Gas Sector: A Look At FGN’s Optimistic 3.0mbpd Target

United Capital Research
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Nigeria Upstream Oil & Gas Sector: A Look At FGN’s Optimistic 3.0mbpd Target

The Federal government has signalled its plans to expand production output to 3.0mbpd in 2023 from its current production level of 1.4mbpd (excluding condensates).

This comes on the heels of recent reforms in the Nigeria oil and gas industry such as the re-opening of bidding rounds for marginal fields and potential progress with the Petroleum industry bill which would potentially spur increased drilling in the sector.

Nevertheless, we think this target is implausible considering the current production cycle as well as a number of other headwinds.

Energy Stocks Soar And Oil Prices Climb

First, a relatively high cost of drilling (average cost of drilling in Nigeria is $17 vs $8 and $9 in Saudi Arabia and Iran respectively) could deter further investment in oil and gas assets. Moreover, Nigeria’s alliance with OPEC means she will have to adhere to output caps over its expansion targets.

For example, in Q4 2020, OPEC’s proposed quotas in bid to rebalance oil markets saw cuts in production for the Joint ventures (JVs) and marginal fields. The cartel will make output adjustments to productions levels by + /- 500,000 bpd monthly, reviewing market fundamentals.

However, stable prices at around $55 per barrel will provide some respite for drillers and their margins.

We also highlight concerns around regulatory bottlenecks which has stifled investment flows into oil & gas assets. Prior to the pandemic, FDI flows into the sector had slowed
significantly even in periods of high prices due to unattractive investment terms for PSC agreements and JVs.

Thus, increased legislative reforms are required to attract even more investments in the upstream oil and gas sector.

That said, we think Nigeria’s long-term production goal 3.0mbpd remains a tight target to reach considering even in greener times, historical production peaked at 2.3mbpd in 2005. However, current acquisition of the NNPC JV assets by local investors provides relief to the FGN’s ambitious target.

Nigerian Equities Index Gains 50.03% in 2020 despite 41% Drop in Foreign Portfolio Inflows

Cowry Research
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Nigerian Equities Index Gains 50.03% in 2020 despite 41% Drop in Foreign Portfolio Inflows

Freshly released report by the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) on domestic and foreign portfolio participation in equities trading showed that total equities market transactions increased in FY 2020 compared to transactions done in the year 2019 as domestic institutional investors lifted local equities market performance despite foreign portfolio investors’ exit amid low fixed income yield and depreciating exchange rate.

Hence, the ratio of total domestic transactions to total foreign transactions tilted to 66:34 in the year under review, from 51:49 in FY 2019, given the 46.01% increase in total domestic transactions as compared with the 22.64% decline in total foreign portfolio transactions.

Nigerian Equities Index Gains 50.03% in 2020 despite 41% Drop in Foreign Portfolio Inflows Brandspurng

Specifically, total transactions on the nation’s bourse increased to N2.17 trillion in FY 2020 (from N1.93 trillion printed in FY 2019); of which total domestic transactions increased to N1.44 trillion (from N985.53 billion). However, FPI transactions decreased to N729.20 billion (from N942.55 billion).

A breakdown of the FPI transactions in FY 2020 showed that foreign portflio inflows contracted by 41.00% to N247.27 billion; also, the foreign portfolio outflows fell by 7.93% to N481.93 billion.

Notably, domestic institutional transactions spiked year on year by 61.39% to N820.14 billion in FY 2020 even as retail investors’ also increased their stake in the equities market in search for better returns (transactions from this group rose to N618.75 billion in the year under review from N477.34 billion in FY 2019).

Amid bargain hunting activities, particularly by the domestic institutional investors, the NSE All-Share Index (ASI) surged by 50.03% to 40,270.72 index points to close for the year 2020 (compared to a 14.60% decline to 26,842.07 index points in FY 2019).

Domestic investors patronised the equities market more, especially in the last quarter of 2020, given the ridiculously low fixed-income yields and the matured Open Market Operations (OMO) bills in Q4 2020 worth N3.44 trillion which was not reinvested in OMO space given CBN’s policy which prevented local asset managers and high net worth individuals from investing in the OMO space.

On the foreign scene, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude price rebounded by 7.43% w-o-w to USD56.23 a barrel gave the 0.21% w-o-w decline in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) to 475.66 million barrels as at January 29, 2021 (albeit, inventories rose by 9.57% y-o-y from 435.01 million barrels as at January 31, 2020).

Also, Brent crude and Nigeria’s crude grade (Bonny Light) increased by 7.15% and 6.16% to USD59.04 and USD57.76 per barrel respectively as at February 4, 2021, as OPEC+ maintained its production cut policy.

The U.S crude oil benchmark rallied despite the 0.54% w-o-w fall in US crude oil input to refineries to 14.64 mb/d as at January 29, 2021 (also, It declined y-o-y by 8.33% from 15.97 mb/d as at January 31, 2020).

We expect the equities market rally witnessed in January to mellow in the months of February and March, despite the anticipated dividend payment announcements by corporates in the months, as share prices have risen to levels where the dividend yields appear to have been stretched.

This is more so as the fixed income yields are beginning to rise. Although rates across short term instruments would still be low in 2021, we expect to see a certain level of upward movement from the record lows traded at in 2020 given the sustained hikes in stop rates in recent auctions which may be a sign that CBN is pressured to marginally increase rate in 2021 in order to attract foreign funds, stabilize exchange rates and reduce the negative real returns suffered by investors amid rising inflation rate.

Hence, we advise investors in the stock market to trade cautiously or wait for the opportunity to “buy the dip” (earn attractive dividend yield and achieve capital appreciation) as share prices decline.

Comrade Abdul Kareem Motajo, former NUATE General Secretary, to be buried this week

Esan Bolaji
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Comrade Abdul Kareem Motajo, former NUATE General Secretary, to be buried this week

…glowing tributes from across various trade unions 

Lagos, Nigeria. 8th February 2021: The remains of Comrade Abdul Kareem Adebayo Motajo, the former General Secretary of the National Union of Air Transport Employees (NUATE), will arrive Nigeria this week and be committed to mother earth on Thursday, 11 February 2021.

Comrade Motajo died April 20, 2020, in Cuba but the global lockdown led to the delay in the shipment of his remains back to his motherland. This was announced by his son, Adebowale Motajo in a press statement.

AA Motajo Brandspurng Comrade Abdul Kareem Motajo, former NUATE General Secretary, to be buried this week

Comrade Motajo born 11th February 1955, worked as a full-time secretary of the National Union of Road Transport Workers (NURTW). Shortly after, during the Abacha period, he became General Secretary of the National Union of Air Transport Employees (NUATE), a position he held till he was 60 years in 2015 when he retired.  

It was during his period as the General Secretary of NUATE, and for a few years after, he also served as a member of the Presidential Council of the World Federation of Trade Unions (WFTU).

His sole efforts led to winning almost a dozen affiliates of both the Nigerian Labour Congress (NLC) and Trade Union Congress (TUC) to World Federation of Trade Unions (WFTU). Comrade Motajo was also instrumental in the establishment of the Nigerian-Cuba Friendship Business and Cultural Association.

In a glowing tribute, the former President of Lufthansa German Nigeria Staff Union, Rafiu Afolabi Laguda, said,

“Nigeria has lost a negotiator and labour leader who believed in mutual understanding, constructive dialogue and a promoter of negotiation without bitterness. Comrade Motajo fought for the eradication of casualization of labour in the aviation industry.

He fought for the rights of the vulnerable, upheld equity and justice, respect for law and order. He promoted industrial peace through conflict resolution.” 

Also, the World Federation of Trade Unions (WFTU) described him as,

“a soldier in the first line of the class struggles, always ready to work, with audacity into practical work, and always fought in the first line of the WFTU for the benefits of the workers and people of Nigeria from his position as acting General Secretary of the National Union of Air Transport Workers (NUATE).

Through his union struggles, he always fought for the interests of his members’ union but also for the sector of air transport workers in national and regional level.” 

“Comrade Motajo stand heads and shoulders above most comrades of his generation, was his readiness to organise and fight on the field. He was someone you could go into battle with, without the slightest fear that he would not hold his ground,” the tribute said.

Similarly, the National Coordinator, Oodua Liberation Movement (OLM), described him as a quintessential fellow with unquantifiable attributes. Comrade Motajo was resourceful. He excelled in theory and practice.  The most quality and asset of a cadre is to be well-grounded in theory and practice. Motajo was Cuban trained cadre.

Equally, Ferney-Voltaire extolled the value of the late Comrade Motajo, he was described as a soldier’s soldier on the left for his boldness. This was not about his being clearly the closest socialist in the country to the Cuban people. It was his readiness to throw body, heart and soul with audacity into practical work, even when this could cost him his life.

Comrade Motajo was trained at University de la Havana, Cuba and he has maintained strong ties with the country and cementing the relationship with Nigeria.

Left to mourn him are his aged mother, darling wife, children, grandchildren and a host of relatives.

9mobile Unveils 4G LTE Service in Ilorin

Esan Bolaji
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9mobile Unveils 4G LTE Service in Ilorin

9mobile has launched its 4G Long-Term Evolution (LTE) network in the city of Ilorin. The telecoms service provider made this known in a statement on Saturday.

It said the latest addition to the expanding 4G coverage would make it possible for Nigerians in Ilorin to join a growing number of its customers across the country already enjoying fast and reliable 4G connectivity for their smartphones.

9mobile Unveils 4G LTE Service in Ilorin Brandspurng

According to it, with this development, 9mobile’s 4G LTE would power digital experience in Ilorin and accelerate Nigeria’s broadband penetration target.

9mobile’s Chief Commercial Officer, Stjepan Udovicic said:

“The Company is working hard to empower Nigerians with world-class data services and also assist in closing the digital divide. We are excited to add the historic city of Ilorin to the growing list of cities already enjoying our 4G LTE network”

Udovicic also urged subscribers to take advantage of their special value data offers and enjoy the newly launched 4G service by subscribing to one of 9mobile’s offers.

He said the offers included 2GB plus free social media at N500, valid for three days, 7GB plus free social at N1,500 valid for seven days, and 3.5GB free data for streaming for the first seven days upon purchasing data plans of N1,000 and above.

Udovicic said that 9mobile would continue to show commitment by expanding its 4G coverage to more cities nationwide.

“As a tech-driven company, we will expand access to improved digital services and continue to do so in more areas very soon. It is our priority to bring 4G services to as many Nigerian cities as possible, and do so as soon as possible.

With the launch of the 9mobile 4G service in Ilorin, subscribers and residents of the city can now enjoy optimised wireless high-speed 4G experience, opening a new chapter of possibilities for productivity and development in the city,” he said.

The Book That Provides Guide On How To Marry A Rich Man

Esan Bolaji
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The Book That Provides Guide On How To Marry A Rich Man

Women who attempt to marry a rich man are always thought to be golddiggers by others but marrying a rich man is ensuring you make a good and deliberate decision for the progress needed in your life.

The book titled “How to Marry a Rich Man” is the much-needed guide about how to make a decision concerning marrying a rich man. This book highlights why you should change your perspective about life. It also shows you why it is important to marry a rich man and it also helps you decide if that man is truly rich.

The Book That Provides Guide On How To Marry A Rich Man Brandspurng1
Photo by Jessica Felicio

Every woman in the world wants to live in comfort and enjoy marriage. Women desire to be pampered and be loved by the man of their dreams. This desire however is read in romance novels and they don’t know that it happens in real life too.

This book is going to change your thinking and also give you the steps and guide on how to implement them.

Also accompanying this books are a guide on how not to appear desperate but interested and a copy of a marriage guide called Fabfrugals Marriage Preparation Guide. Also when you preorder for your copy of the book, you get access to Fabfrugals wedding Budget Template.

The book and the additional resources go for N5,000 however there is a promo going on and the price is currently slashed to N1,000.

The Book That Provides Guide On How To Marry A Rich Man Brandspurng2

This is an opportunity to quickly get the book before the offer expires. You can make paying using this link: https://paystack.com/pay/qygip4kv6b

Once payment is made, the book gets delivered to you via email immediately. What are you waiting for?

Get the ebook and start your journey to marital bliss by implementing the steps in the book today.

The author of the book Gbemisola Fadugbagbe is a personal and business finance expert who believes in living the life of impact and intentionality. She believes women can be financially independent and live their dream-life if they get the right counsel.

Stay connected for more information via her social media handles:

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