Naira Weakens against the USD at the Bureau De Change & Black Markets

In the just concluded week, Naira depreciated against the USD at the Bureau De Change (BDC) and parallel (“black”) markets by 3.04% and 2.13% respectively to close at N474/USD and N480/USD respectively.

However, the Naira appreciated at the Investors and Exporters Window by 0.04% to close at at N385.83/USD amid rising crude oil prices at the international market.

Naira Weakens against the USD at the Bureau De Change & Black Markets
Afolabi Sotunde Illustration Naira

However, NGN/USD closed flat at N381/USD at the Interbank Foreign Exchange market amid weekly injections of USD210 million by CBN into the forex market: USD100 million was allocated to Wholesale Secondary Market Intervention Sales (SMIS), USD55 million was allocated to Small and Medium Scale Enterprises and USD55 million was sold for invisibles.

Elsewhere, the Naira/USD exchange rate appreciated for most of the foreign exchange forward contracts: 1 month, 2 months, 3 months and 6 months rates fell by 0.13%, 0.14%, 0.15% and 0.20% respectively to close at N385.59/USD, N385.78/USD, N386.08/USD and N386.11/USD respectively.

However, 12 months forward contract rose by 0.20% to close at N388.12/USD; while the spot rate closed flat at N381.00/USD.

In the new week, we expect Naira/USD to remain stable at the Investors and Exporters FX Window (I&E FXW) given the sustained rally in crude oil prices at the international market.

Kwik Delivery and Total Nigeria Plc partner on e-commerce fulfilment of Corporate Affairs Commission documents

Kwik Delivery and Total Nigeria Plc will enable businesses to use TOTAL service stations as secure pickup locations of essential documents

November 20, 2020 – Kwik Delivery and Total Nigeria Plc announce today a partnership to develop an e-commerce fulfilment and delivery service in Nigeria.

Kwik Delivery and Total Nigeria Plc will enable businesses to use TOTAL service stations as secure pickup locations of essential documents issued by the Corporate Affairs Commission to Nigerian businesses, such as Certificates of Incorporation or CAC 1.1. forms.

Kwik Delivery and Total Nigeria Plc partner on e-commerce fulfilment of Corporate Affairs Commission documents Brandspurng1

The Nigerian Corporate Affairs Commission is regularly innovating to improve its services to businesses and has recently decided to add a complete delivery and pick-up service in order to streamline the issuance of its documents to Nigerian businesses.

“Drop off & pick-up locations are essential to the development of e-commerce in Nigeria and TOTAL’s service stations have a great role to play thanks to their trusted brand and quality service. We are glad to partner with Kwik Delivery on this essential service to Nigerian businesses” said Charles Atiomo, General Manager, Sales & Marketing Division of Total Nigeria Plc.

This partnership is a great step toward establishing an e-commerce infrastructure that stakeholders can trust and rely on” explains Romain POIROT-LELLIG, Founder & CEO of Kwik Delivery. “We are honoured to inaugurate this service in partnership with Total Nigeria Plc and its dense network of strategically-located outlets.

Launched in Lagos, Nigeria, in June 2019, Kwik Delivery is an on-demand delivery platform focusing on the rich and diverse B2B and B2B2C market. It is developed and operated by French-Nigerian company Africa Delivery Technologies.

Bitcoin Touches $18K, Crypto Asset Looks to Smash All-Time High, ETH Price Could Spike 20x

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On Wednesday, November 18, 2020, the price of bitcoin has been coasting along at levels not seen since the decentralized currency’s all-time high three years ago in 2017. The cryptocurrency’s market capitalization is currently hovering at around $334 billion today. Likewise, the daily rate of bitcoin issuance during the last three years makes the overall market valuation higher than it was when bitcoin touched $19,600 per coin.

Earlier this morning (EST), bitcoin (BTC) had surpassed the $18k per unit price zone, as the crypto asset has climbed a whopping 54% during the last 30 days. During the last 90 days against the U.S. dollar, BTC is up 53% and over the last 12 months against USD, the cryptocurrency is up a massive 123% to-date.

Bitcoin Touches $18K, Crypto Asset Looks to Smash All-Time High, ETH Price Could Spike 20x

Three years ago, bitcoin touched an all-time high of $19,600 on Bitstamp, but because of the three years of bitcoin issuance from miners, BTC’s market cap is higher today than it was on December 17, 2017. Today, bitcoin is undoubtedly the best financial vehicle during the last decade, as it has surpassed stocks, equities, commodities, and nearly every asset under the sun.

For example, 12 years ago back in July 2010, a single BTC was swapping for $0.08 per unit. This means with BTC above the $18k handle (or just below), the crypto asset has increased in value over 22 million percent since 2010. If a person waited even five years later, in 2015 the price of BTC was swapping between $200-300 per coin. An investment in bitcoin at this level (2015) would give an investor 7,100% with BTC exchange rates at the $18k mark.

Data shows that at the current price levels, any person with a touch over 55 BTC has crossed the millionaire zone. Statistics show that there are 664,900 unique addresses with anywhere between 1-10 BTC and 2.3 million unique addresses with 0.1 to 1 BTC each. Stats from bitinfocharts.com also indicates there are 25,810 unique addresses that own a million dollars worth of bitcoin. Beyond those million-dollar whales, 3,442 addresses contain $10 million in BTC today as well.

Meanwhile, as bitcoin (BTC) continues to grow in value, the crypto assets inflation rate or rate of issuance continues to drop lower. Unlike Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chair who noted the U.S. central bank would let inflation run hotter than usual, Satoshi’s system is predictable and mathematically secure.

In fact, worldwide most central banks claim the financial institutions keep the inflation rate target around 2%, but there are a few lenient countries that reference rates as high as 4%. And even though central banks claim 2% is the reference mark globally, shadowstats.com statistics reveal the real rate could be as high as 10%.

Bitcoin Touches $18K, Crypto Asset Looks to Smash All-Time High, ETH Price Could Spike 20x Brandspurng1
Earlier this morning (Eastern Standard Time), bitcoin (BTC) jumped to a 2020 high of $18,483. The price also saw a quick $1,000 flash crash which saw the price sink to $17,200 this morning as well. At the time of publication, BTC is fighting to keep the $18k zone at 9:45 a.m. EST.

On February 24, 2020, just before the third BTC reward halving, the decentralized currency’s inflation rate was hovering around 3.86%. Today, that metric is a lot lower, and continues to sink as the current bitcoin (BTC) inflation rate is only 2.71% at the time of publication.

After BTC busted through the $18k zone, the crypto asset analyst from Etoro, Simon Peters, said that “bitcoin will now be setting its sights on the all-time high of $20,000” in a note to investors.

“Three years on, there are a whole host of factors contributing to the current price rise, including a massive influx of investors from large scale institutions such as listed investment trusts, pension schemes and university endowment funds, which shows how far bitcoin has come,” Peters wrote on Wednesday morning. “Data sets that analyse the health of bitcoin by looking at data from the blockchain, the technology underpinning crypto, are also reporting strong signals that justify the recent price rises.”

The digital currency analyst added:

The $20,000 level is clearly the next target for bitcoin. Should we surpass that this year, which I believe is possible, then we are into uncharted territory as sentiment remains positive. Bitcoin’s maturity, evidenced by the diversity of its investors and extensive and wide-ranging data sets, means that we can say with some trepidation, ‘this time is different’.

With bitcoin (BTC) prices riding so high, this week crypto proponents have been wondering whether or not an ‘altcoin season’ is coming around the bend. So far, with BTC’s dominance levels at 68.7%, it doesn’t seem to be the case, at least for now.
However, there are a few notable altcoins moving northbound in value too like the second largest blockchain in terms of market cap Ethereum. The popular cryptocurrency analyst on Twitter called @intocryptoverse believes at some point ETH prices could top $10k per coin.
“If ETH continues on in this manner and is, in fact, one market cycle behind BTC, then we will peak at approximately 1,000% above the fair value in a few years,” the trader predicted on Twitter. “If this happens in say, 2023, then this could put a theoretical peak just shy of a modest $10k per ETH,” @intocryptoverse concluded.

Production Level Rise ahead of Festive Period Despite Slowing Demand Triggered by Inflation

Recently released Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) survey report by Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) showed that manufacturing sector hit 50.2 index points while the non manufacturing sector witnessed further recovery from contraction, nearing 50 index points (which indicates neutrality), as production level and business activities picked.

In line with our expectations, the manufacturing composite PMI rose from contraction to 50.2 index points in November (from 49.4 in October), following sixth consecutive months of contraction since May 2020.

Production Level Rise ahead of Festive Period Despite Slowing Demand Triggered by Inflation
Heavy industry

The faster expansion in manufacturing composite PMI was chiefly driven by an increase in production index, to 51.7 in November 2020 (from 50.0 in October 2020), albeit demand dragged a little as new orders index slowed to 50.5 (from 51.2). Producers’ costs of production increased (input prices index rose to 71.7 from 70.9), however selling prices were generally sticky (output prices index increased to 60.1 from 60.0).

Supplies of raw materials to manufacturers improved despite increasing demand from producers – supplier delivery time index rose to 52.2 in November (from 51.8 in October). Despite the swiftness on the part of suppliers, manufacturers still stocked up raw materials as festivities beckon – raw materials/work-in-progress index moved up, to 48.5 from 46.2 – reflected by the quantity of purchases index which rose to 51.7 from 47.8.

We saw stock of finished goods rise – its index increased to 46.6 points in November 2020 from 44.9 points in October 2020 – as sales slowed despite rising production level. Similarly, contraction in staffing levels in the manufacturing space further slowed given the increase in production volume – employment index rose further to 47.3 points in November (compared to 46.0 points in October).

Of the fourteen manufacturing sub-sectors, Transportation equipment and Cement sub-sector indices expanded to 64.2 points and 52.6 points in November 2020 from 59.6 points and 50.5 points in October 2020 while the Nonmetallic mineral products, Furniture & related products and Food, beverage & tobacco products sub-sectors recovered from contrations to 59.4 points (from 47.5 points), 55.8 points (46.6 points) and 50.1 points (49.3 points) respectively.

Meanwhile, the nonmanufacturing sector recorded slower contraction as its composite PMI increased to 47.6 index points in November 2020 (from 46.8 index points in October 2020). This was chiefly driven by improved business activity to 50.5 (from 48.7) despite the incoming business index slowing to 47.8 from 46.9. Also, employment index further increased, to 46.7 (from 44.2).

Business activity still picked in spite of the rise in average price of inputs, to 54.5 index points in November (from 52.9 index points in October). Elsewhere, the rising prices of different benchmarks of crude oil were sustained in the just concluded week.

Notably, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude price rose w-o-w by 1.89% to USD41.90 a barrel while Brent price rose by 1.54% to USD44.20 a barrel as at Thursday, November 19, 2020. Bonny Light increased by 0.87% to USD43.85 a barrel.

Also, we saw a 2.93% w-o-w jump in US crude oil input to refineries to 13.84 mb/d as at November 13, 2020 (albeit, It declined y-o-y by 15.82% from 16.44 mb/d as at November 15, 2019). However, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) rose by 0.16% w-o-w to 489.48 million barrels as at November 13, 2020 (inventories have risen by 8.68% y-o-y from 450.38 million barrels as at November 15, 2019).

We feel that manufacturers tried to get ahead of the aniticipated rise in input prices during festive period in December. Hence, they opted to produce more now despite the slowing demand which appears to be triggered by rising inflation rate. Meanwhile, we expect GDP in Q3 2020 to be reflective of the positive PMIs figures in Q3.

GOtv Nigeria Refreshes Brand with Bold New Look, Pay-off Line

Nigeria’s aspiration to digitise her television broadcasting began in 2008 when the then government announced a plan to implement digitisation of the country’s analogue television signal by 2015. This was of course in line with the global deadline given by the International Telecommunications Union, an arm of the UN responsible for telecoms technology.

GOtv Nigeria Refreshes Brand with Bold New Look, Pay-off Line Brandspurng

Since then, the country has witnessed a public awareness campaign for the transition from analogue to digital in television transmission. GOtv, the pay-TV offering of MultiChoice on the Digital Terrestrial Television (DTT) with its advanced DVB-T2 technology has been at the forefront of the country’s campaign towards digital migration.

The impact of GOtv in the DTT space has given Nigerians in the middle- and lower-income categories have access to a wide range of informative and entertaining content on subscription plans that best fit their needs and budget.

Quality and affordable digital entertainment for the whole family has been the brand’s proposition and nine years after, GOtv (now GOtv Nigeria) has refreshed its brand identity in keeping with its promise of giving customers more value for money.

When the DTT service first started in 2011, it had ‘Entertaining Africa’ as its pay-off line to reflect the core of its mission in the continent. The Pay-TV service provider has recently repositioned to give its customers a stronger sense of control with a variety of exciting local, kids, news and sports content across several packages.

GOtv Nigeria Refreshes Brand with Bold New Look, Pay-off Line Brandspurng1

The brand changed its pay-off line to ‘Live it. Love it’, an apt phrase to capture the intention of the brand for its present and potential customers because GOtv Nigeria is more than just entertainment. And now, the brand has streamlined this to ‘Love it’ – a crisp and succinct call to action for customers to enjoy the TV entertainment they love with family and friends.

GOtv Nigeria assets also spot a bolder look with modern geometric design elements for an added visual interest and identification. The primary colour palette – red, green and yellow – has also been refreshed and extended with a secondary palette that includes orange and turquoise, to create a more aesthetically pleasing design on all communication materials. These work together to create a memorable brand in the hearts and minds of its customers.

GOtv Nigeria Refreshes Brand with Bold New Look, Pay-off Line Brandspurng2

Since its inception into the Nigerian market, the brand has launched a series of campaigns to woo and impress its customers. Some of the recent campaigns include GOtv Top Up which, like the name implies, topped up the customers’ subscriptions on lower packages for an opportunity to experience the exciting premium content available on GOtv Max.

There was also GOtv Golden Window, which guaranteed new customers access to 3 months of uninterrupted access to quality entertainment. With the COVID-19 pandemic, the We Dey Your Side campaign offer in April was particularly soothing for Nigerians during the lockdown as the campaigns ensured the upgrade of the customer’s package to the next higher one. Many customers said the lockdown period was tough for them but also mentioned that it could have been tougher without these campaigns.

When it comes to local programming, GOtv parades the popular Africa Magic Channels – AM Family, AM Epic, AM Yoruba, AM Hausa, AM Igbo – which showcase a variety of great popular Nigerian series and top-notch dramas such as The Johnsons, Halita, My Siblings & I, Flatmates amongst others.

GOtv Nigeria Refreshes Brand with Bold New Look, Pay-off Line Brandspurng3.jpg

GOtv is as proudly Nigerian as it can ever get. It has enhanced the Nigerian spirit of resourcefulness and industry as it has been able to create jobs for thousands of Nigerian youth with the GOtv Sabiman Initiative, a door-to-door customer service scheme that ensures customers enjoy maximum value from its service.

Nobody can gainsay the fact that unemployment is a major problem in most African countries. MultiChoice, the owners of GOtv provides training for the participants in, among other things, installation of GOtv, resolution of customers’ complaints, and customer service. This invariably means the bigger the reach of GOtv, the more employment opportunities for Nigerians.

The real deal, of course, is in the local and international programming Nigerians enjoy from the comfort of their homes and offices and the brand is more than ever before committed to delivering the best when it comes to family entertainment in Nigeria. The various packages now available are designed to meet each family’s needs, tastes and pocket.

These new packages according to the company were exclusively and specially curated for the Nigerian market and came upgraded with new channels and fresh content for a more enhanced viewing experience. With the new package names, the brand has been able to gain a level of stickiness with customers as the names are part of Nigerians’ colloquial and everyday language.

An overview of GOtv packages reveal options that customers can choose from depending on affordability and their needs, a move by the company not to compromise on quality and variety offered.

With just NGN 3,600 per month, customers can get GOtv Max which offers great variety with over 72 international and local channels. GOtv Max is the home of La Liga and Serie A, local and international programming and a variety of kids and educational channels.

Next is GOtv Jolli which costs just NGN 2,460 per month and with this, customers have a broad selection of over 68 local and international channels across all genres.

GOtv Nigeria Refreshes Brand with Bold New Look, Pay-off Line Brandspurng4

 

Also available is GOtv Jinja which costs just NGN 1,640 per month and affords the customers access to over 47 quality channels.

Without a doubt, the GOtv Nigeria brand has evolved over the years. With a presence in 24 states and close to 50 cities in the country, the brand continues to push the envelope within the DTT space with different creative campaigns that are geared towards giving Nigerians top-class television entertainment delivered via the most modern broadcast technology platform whilst entrenching itself in the fabrics of the society with its socio-economic programmes and reward schemes. It’s safe to say that hundreds of thousands of households are living in the unforgettable world of GOtv, and they are loving it!

The Sunny Disposition of Private Equity in Today’s COVID-19 World – FBNQUEST

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We listened with great interest to four prominent private equity players in Africa in a discussion of prospects during and after COVID-19. The event took place in early November, and so was before the announcement by Pfizer and Moderna on their vaccines to tackle COVID-19. The panel discussion was part of the Africa Debate, an annual event put together by an established London-based business association.

The Sunny Disposition of Private Equity in Today’s COVID-19 World - FBNQUEST
The Sunny Disposition of Private Equity in Today’s COVID-19 World – FBNQUEST – www.brandspurng.com

Private equity houses are generally optimistic and did not disappoint in the discussion. They had to contend with the great returns available in China and foreign exchange issues in several African markets before COVID-19 struck, yet were able to highlight many positives. One investor who follows the script of the emerging middle class noted that 70 per cent of their companies qualify as essential businesses and have therefore remained open.

Another said that their investments in both telecoms and financial services had performed well with COVID-19 whereas the record for consumer goods had been mixed. His experience in Africa was that the crisis has helped large companies more than small operations, mirroring trends in advanced economies.  A third mentioned a successful investment in a remittance business, driven by a shift from sending cash across borders (now often closed) in taxis to digital transactions. There is the general point, made in the context of infrastructure plays, that the global slowdown has made valuations more attractive.

Without travel, investors have been unable to send specialist outside contractors to factories for fire-fighting purposes. Whenever possible, they have sorted the problems out on Zoom. COVID-19 has accelerated programmes to deepen local expertise on the ground, while traditional due diligence has become highly challenging without travel. At the other end of the transaction, an exit via Zoom requires good knowledge of the buyers. Nonetheless one investor has concluded two transactions in the past month, one of which is in the fintech space.

In the Q&A session investors were asked about their target Internal Rate of Return (IRR). The first to answer came up with between 15% and 20% net, and the three others were happy to nod their heads in agreement.  Another question covered the integration of ESG considerations into investment decisions. One investor had already said that all their decision-taking incorporated the impact on the climate. He argued that the valuation would suffer on a future exit from a climate-unfriendly holding.

Expectedly, working practices have also had to change. One company has worked hard to keep up morale as its employees work from home rather than network in their office. Its responses have included organizing a party on Zoom to celebrate the appointment of three new partners. Some of the time saved from travelling has also been used to bring employees up to speed on the world of Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG).

Overall, the momentum has slowed for the industry in Africa in terms of new deals, exits and fund-raising because of COVID-19. It was clear from the discussion, however, that participants were confident about the future post-COVID, which point may well have been brought closer by the news on vaccine trials we have since had from Pfizer and Moderna in the US.

INTERVIEW: What NIPC Is Doing To Grow Nigeria’s Foreign Direct Investment – Yewande Sadiku

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The Executive Secretary, Nigerian Investment Promotion Commission (NIPC), Ms Yewande Sadiku recently granted an interview to Premium Times; below are excerpts of the interview:

INTERVIEW: What NIPC Is Doing To Grow Nigeria’s Foreign Direct Investment – Yewande Sadiku
INTERVIEW: What NIPC Is Doing To Grow Nigeria’s Foreign Direct Investment – Yewande Sadiku – www.brandspurng.com

Excerpts:

QUESTION: COVID-19 has virtually grounded the global economy. How much impact has it been on the business of investment promotion in Nigeria?

YEWANDE SADIKU: A lot! But, let me take you a little back to what the NIPC’s mandate is, so that you will understand the context in which I am saying this.
NIPC, by mandate, was created to encourage, promote and coordinate investments. Looking at specific things in the mandate, there is nothing like securing any volume of investment. Attracting investment requires the work of more than one person.

So, NIPC’s role is one of advocacy and engagement of the government and its agencies. But, the policies are written by the ministries, while the incentives are created by different organs. The NIPC has a role in helping the government understand the policies.

In that sense, NIPC’s estimates are based on the work of those who have better resources. We had advised the government that a 30 to 40 percent decline in the foreign direct investment (FDI) was expected in 2020-2021, based on the work of the United Nations Conference on Trade and development (UNCTAD).

They released a report recently that showed that in the first half of 2021, FDI actually fell globally by about 49 percent. It is slightly worse than the trend we estimated. NIPC’s expectation is that there will be some recoveries in the third quarter of the year, which has come and gone. If there was any recovery in the quarter, it will be very modest, because of the reality of COVID-19.

But, COVID-19 has shown the dangers in concentrating manufacturing capacity in one country or region. It has also demonstrated the dangers in relying on others for things considered basic for a country.

We believe many countries would be manufacturing a number of those things. If they cannot do it themselves, they would try to domesticate a part of the value chain, so that they are placed in a situation where they would not be left exposed.

COVID-19 has also demonstrated the need for greater domestic investments. Like every country, we want foreign investments. But, we also want a large quantum of domestic investments. So, we want Nigerians to invest in their own country.

The long and short of it is that COVID-19 was expected to have a lower effect on investment flows, just as it has a depressing effect on economic growth. Countries need to react to that reality the same way they are reacting to economic growth. Because a lot of countries rely a lot on foreign investments, and because that is falling at the moment, a lot of the countries that got the foreign investments are also working on rebuilding the investment infrastructure in their own countries. So, it is normal that the competition will be much more intense.

QUESTION: In one of your recent briefings this year, you said the quantum of investment flows reduced by over 204 percent in 2019 than was recorded in 2018. But, curiously, there was no COVID-19 in the two years. What can we blame for such significant drop in investments during the period in reference?

YEWANDE SADIKU: Investment inflow to Nigeria has been under pressure for a few years, even prior to COVID-19. Looking at FDI flows to Nigeria in the last 20 years, we had a peak around 2011-2012 when the country recorded FDI of about $8.9billion. That was about the time the government sold oil assets to indigenous companies.

Since then, FDI has been under serious pressures. There might have been a spike in one of the years. But, the trend has been downwards since then. When FDI in Nigeria was high, what we see is because the government policies, or economic reforms stimulated the flow of the FDIs.

So, when banking reforms, which required higher capital raising, led to consolidation, and when the reforms of the telecoms industry were done, and GSM licenses were issued, not only did the government sell licenses to make some money, those who bought those licenses created a completely new investment ecosystem, with a ripple effect in many sectors of the economy.

So, until we have government policies that stimulate investments like that, or economic reforms that are far-reaching enough, we may not have the kind of impact we desire on investment in the economy. The sale of the power assets did not have the same impact as the telecoms, in terms of the FDIs coming into the country, because of the type of people who bought the assets and the way they funded it.

A lot of the sale of the power assets to DISCOs and GENCOs were funded largely by Nigerian principals who borrowed from the domestic market with minimal foreign participation. Those transactions did not really give FDIs the opportunity to come into the country. FDI is almost the most reliable source of investment in most countries.
It can be the most difficult to get. But, if investors are given the comfort they need, it can be a reliable source.

QUESTION: So, what policy adjustment or economic reforms do you think are necessary to drive investment flows in Nigeria?

YEWANDE SADIKU: In relation to reforms and improvements in the overall business environment, if we use the World Bank index as a guide, the work of the Presidential Enabling Business Environment Council (PEBEC) has considerably moved Nigeria’s ranking in the last five years.

But, Nigeria’s ranking of 136 out of 191, from 169, shows that although we have moved materially, we still have a long way to go. Investors don’t look only at the World Bank ranking alone. They look at many other things.

An important factor investors point to is the stability of government policies, not only when they change with some frequency, but the application of those polices is almost immediate in most instances. Meaning that they don’t have the capacity to react to them.

So, whatever policies the government has, need to allow a long enough tenure for investors to be comfortable that polices would not change mid-way, especially for direct investors, and that they can invest over a few years.

The foreign currency policy is also an important matrix that investors look at to make investment decisions. It is important not only for foreign investors, but for domestic investors.

In almost all sectors, there is still some dependency on an element of foreign import to support manufacturing, even when it has fallen over the years. So, the difficulty in accessing foreign exchange does not affect some, it affects all, whether foreign or domestic manufacturers. But, then there are sector reform policies that can help to stimulate investments.

QUESTION: What would you say are NIPC’s contributions to the effort to raise the level of FDIs in Nigeria since you assumed office?

YEWANDE SADIKU: Investment generation is not a sprint. It’s a marathon. In my previous life in investment banking, it could take 10 years to get a right mandate. After a two years period, you will only have evidence of an engagement with the person on a regular basis, not a mandate yet. But, you know that the mandate is coming. So, that sort of strategic planning is considered important.

In that sense, a lot of work the NIPC has done in my time here have been focused on building the foundation for investment. For instance, if one wants to build a skyscraper, one will need to build a foundation that matches the skyscraper. Same thing for a bungalow. When I look at the prospects of Nigeria, state by state, it’s humbling what is available in every state in terms of investment generation possibilities.

So, for us to be successful at investor attraction, we first need to fully understand what it is we are selling. Then, we ideally go after the target audience of investors that are most likely to be receptive to the kind of opportunities we have. That requires a little bit of foundation building.

So, a lot of work I have done since I joined the NIPC have been focused on building the foundation for investment.

If one is sitting at ground level, one will not see what is being built under the ground. But, that foundation is important if we are going to achieve this skyscraper foundation Nigeria requires. We thought it was important we understand the potential available across all the 36 states of the federation.

We are putting together “The Book of States”. You will not believe how long it took us to do this. We needed each of the state governors to sign off on the pages that relate to them, because it would be a shame if the NIPC picks something in a particular state and the governor’s vision is slightly different from what we have there.

Like I said, the bulk of investments that many countries chase are foreign investments. That means building a certain kind of relationship with foreign investors that these would come from.

So, we thought it was important, given the limitation of our resources, to identify the kind of countries that are strategically important to Nigeria for investment promotion, so that we deliberately build with those countries the kind of relationships with the key stakeholders in the public and private sectors that could be converted to investor contacts.

Ultimately, my belief is that targeted investment promotion is what will yield Nigeria the best outcomes. So, we need to understand the sub-sectors, like agriculture. What is special about rice, cashew, or cassava in Nigeria? And what are the prospects of that sector that could be sold to an investor, foreign or domestic? Who are the investors, foreign or domestic, that you will sell these prospects to?

The first thing one needs is what they call in banking a hook. Then you cast that hook in to engage an investor. So, the NIPC spent a lot of time developing the capacity of that hook; improving the quality of the materials to be used for an investor engagement, because they denote a certain level of seriousness, in terms of what needs to be done.

But, apart from the foundational work, it is also important that you have tangible evidence of some progress. Investors like full disclosure, certainty, information to be freely available, not for some, but for all, because it tells them the more fairly you treat all, the less likely that there will be discretionary treatment. Nobody minds discretion in their favour, but everybody minds those against them.

So, among the many things we have done, we identify the countries that are strategically important to Nigeria. We identified 20 countries. We tried to do a deep dive to understand their trade and investment relationships with Nigeria and the kind of things they invest in across the world, so that we know, when we are engaging with them, what hook to use in those engagements.

Nigeria has signed a number of bilateral agreements with a variety of countries. We thought it was important to understand the quality of the treaties, to ensure they can achieve the kind of investments we want. We believe the appropriate investments are those based on the ‘RIBS’ philosophy – responsible, inclusive, balanced and sustainable. These words denote what one would fairly expect. If one achieves investments that fit into that RIBS philosophy, then they would move Nigeria closer to the achievement of its sustainable development goal.

Investors don’t make investment decisions first about incentives, but they like to know what incentives are there. So, we combined and pulled the incentives together and put them in a compendium and make available to prospective investors. We have created an online investors’ guide that helps investors understand how land, labour, taxes and the like, work in Nigeria.

A lot of efforts were spent on sub-national engagements in getting information at the sub-national level that we need to engage investors. But, one first needed to fully understand exactly what one was putting out. A lot of efforts were also committed to governance. When one is engaging investors, in a country where some have reservation about governance, transparency and compliance, the manner which you comport yourself and conduct your affairs is an important indication to them of how you are likely to engage them.

We also publish a variety of reports now that we never did before. Since 2018, we started publishing the report of investment announcements in Nigeria. We have so far published in 2018, 2019 and the first half of 2020. That report gives us an indication of investors’ interest in Nigeria. We also publish a report on capital inflows. The information has always been released by the National Bureau of Statistics by pulling those numbers into materials, graphics and language investors can understand. Those reports give us a good sense of investors’ authority.

QUESTION: Earlier, you talked about reforms required to drive investments. But, speaking specifically about the sale of power industry assets, the power sector has failed to deliver what Nigerians really wanted. Critics say the government agencies that handled the sale may not have done sufficient due diligence on the capacity of those that bought those facilities, in terms of technical and financial capacity to deliver. What’s your take on that?

YEWANDE SADIKU: I may not know have all the facts about what happened at the time the privatisation was done to be able to comment intelligently. But, as an interested member of the public, based on what we saw, the parties had the capacity to pay for the assets. That is why the government parted with the assets.

But, the profile of the consortia that bought a lot of the assets meant the financial capacity required to expand was lacking. In the power sector, there is the nameplate generating or distribution capacity and the actual capacity. What Nigerians expected was not that the investors meet the nameplate capacity, but that they expand it.

A certain quantum of financial capacity is needed to meet the nameplate capacity and expand it. That would have meant that we may have had to do the reforms differently from the way it was done. There is a certain comfort a foreign investor may want, in terms of the time it will take to go through a process and the building blocks put in place before they participate in the process.

The speed at which the government wanted this done may not have been able to deliver that at the time. Nevertheless, I still think that the power sector privatisation was a success to the extent that if it was not done then, I wonder if it would have be done by now, because of the economic realities that followed. But, it is the follow-on actions; the things they needed to do to expand the capacity of the sector that probably did not follow the time they should have.

QUESTION: “The Book of States” sounds like the books in the Bible. What is it all about?

YEWANDE SADIKU: It is a chapter in Nigeria investment promotion Bible (chuckles). But, talking seriously, I told you earlier about building blocks and the need for building the foundation of a building. The “Book of States” will feed into a digital database the NIPC is doing.

What this allows us to do is to capture the competitive advantages and investment opportunities the 36 state governors want to promote. It means that in NIPC’s engagements with prospective investors, we will better be able to speak to the strengths of the states, rather than to Nigeria generally. But, it is only a piece of a puzzle. It is not a complete picture in itself.

What makes it an incomplete picture is that when this is in place, you will know the sectors the governors want to invest in. You need to do a deep dive to say, for those sectors, if you pick cocoa, for instance, and look at the six or seven states in Nigeria with cocoa prospects, then you look from a value chain perspective what is possible for aggregating the cocoa beans to processing.

It may not be realistic to expect processing in each of the six or seven states, because the quantum of cocoa beans available may not be optimal now. But, if you look across the value chain, you will look at transport, access to market, access to processing, etc. It’s that sort of strategic work that the NIPC considers to be important.
Without the “Book of States”, if A is familiar with Anambra; B is familiar with Gombe, and C is familiar with Katsina, we will be dependent on the three of you to know what those states have.

But, once you reduce what you know about the states to a document like the “Book of States”, and feed it into a database, if an investor says he is interested in a certain commodity, when the name of the commodity is entered in the database, it will tell you the states that have the strongest prospects for that commodity.

First, it allows you to do better justice to all the states in Nigeria. So, it will not be dependent on the person who is sitting on the seat as the Executive Secretary of NIPC and the relationships they have. So, it is an important database for Nigeria for investment promotion.

It is one of those elements of the building blocks I talked about earlier. Essentially, if you use that construction approach in trying to build a skyscraper, then you will realise the importance of building a deep foundation.

QUESTION: Could the Book of States be taken as the local version of the Nigerian Investment Guide you launched in London last year, to show foreign investors investment destinations in Nigeria?

YEWANDE SADIKU: The Nigerian Investments Guide is actually a take on the online investment Guide we launched in May 2018. But, it is physical, rather than an online version. The “Book of States” speaks to all investors, both local and foreign. It tells you how land, labour, taxes, and the cost of certain items in Nigeria impact on investment. It is useful for domestic investors as well, because not all investors understand how those matters work, especially if one is not an active practitioner.

The advantage of the online investment guide for foreign investors is the technology used to build it. You can do a few keystrokes and change the language. So, if you are not English-speaking, which most of us are in Nigeria, the online investors’ guide gives you the ability to read the information in your own language, in over 100 languages.

QUESTION: You spoke earlier about the World Bank Ease of Doing Business ranking, which showed Nigeria moved from 191 position to 131. But, there are still so many things that suggest it is still difficult to do business in Nigeria. For instance, at the airport, you still find airport workers begging people for money and other rowdy behaviours. The FIRS still harasses businesses, even when they have paid their tax, or not helping to make filings. So, does this ranking truly reflect reality?

YEWANDE SADIKU: The ranking is independently done by the World Bank. They don’t talk to one person. But, a number of people in the private sector. They send out surveys and process them. So, I cannot say the ranking does not reflect reality, because of the manner it is done. The fact that Nigeria is ranked 131 does not change that it is out of 190. There is still a long way to go. The target for Nigeria was to be within the top 70, originally top 100. So, we recognise there is still work to be done.

When those rankings are achieved, there is achieving improvement in some circumstances. But, in achieving the improvement in a manner that works all the time without fail, and efforts are now focused on improvement, rather than just getting there. That’s the work I said needs to continue, in terms of improvements in the economic environment. It is that sort of work that investors will draw the greatest comfort from. Investors want it to work all the time for everybody, rather than for one person some of the time.

QUESTION: As an investment promotion agency, how difficult was it for you to engage, say the Federal Airport Authority of Nigeria, to make airports less rowdy, particularly the bureau de change operators and the taxi drivers, since these are the first set of people visitors to the country encounter at the airport?


YEWANDE SADIKU:
There are certain things that require systemic changes. And the work of improving the business environment is one of them. There is an expression about nipping something in the bud. When the decline started, if it was nipped in the bud, it could have been easier to fix. But, at times, it has gone on for a longer period, it becomes more difficult to deal with.

So, work on the reform of the business environment, a lot of it was driven by the Presidential Enabling Business Environment Council, because it has gone beyond a level an agency like the NIPC could fix. The PEBEC led to an EBES (Enabling Business Environment Secretariat). But I will give the PEBEC the credit, for taking the ranking from 170 in 2016 to 131 in 2020.

But, as you have rightly acknowledged, even though there have been improvements, there is still a lot of work to do. And if we disaggregate those rankings, in relation to a lot of things investors still have issues with, like trading across borders, even though Nigeria is ranked 131 out of 190 on an aggregated basis, Nigeria ranked 179 out of 190. This is where the rubber hits the road for many investors because we are dependent on imports. Everybody feels bringing in or taking out goods.

QUESTION: If the borders are still closed, how then can investments come in, especially from neighouring countries?

YEWANDE SADIKU: There are not as many investors from the neighbouring countries. So, the effect of the closure of the borders on neighbouring countries would not be seen as a problem. But, investors in Nigeria invest in Nigeria partly because of the ease of access to neighbouring countries, and because of the strategic size of the Nigerian market.

If you dominate the Nigerian market where there is real depth and consumers, it makes it easy for you to add on manufacturing from neighbouring countries. So, it does not hurt investors. But, it is not so much the incoming investors from neighbouring countries. But, we don’t have a lot of them, anyway. In fact, in Africa, Nigeria is the second-largest country for Africa-to-Africa investments, behind South Africa.

QUESTION: How is the 48-hour business registration arrangement coming up?

YEWANDE SADIKU: The NIPC has not changed the standards for the one-stop investment centre. What happened in recent years was that the Corporate Affairs Commission (CAC), FIRS and even Nigerian Customs took over some of the desks of the one-stop investment centre. A lot of processing of Visa on Arrival happened in NIPC. Now, visa on arrival is drawn virtually. Nobody needs to come into NIPC to do anything again once you fill the forms and pay the fees. We have seen it work.

CAC has just introduced technology that allows investors to check for company names and register them within 48 hours. That works. Every now and again, there may be glitches in the system. But, it does not require a one-stop investment centre.

A recent reform this year also provided that once you register with CAC, you automatically get a tax identification number. So, you don’t have to separately register with FIRS.
What a one-stop investment centre provides is a platform for engaging with multiple government agencies at the same time. In the old days, before the use of technology as we see today, it was possible for an investor to come to NIPC, go to the CAC desk, register a company and with FIRS within 48 hours.

But, you will have to do it physically. In the last three years, that has changed. It is no longer physical. It is now something you do electronically on the platform of CAC and FIRS. So, we need to do that through the one-stop investment center, but not as it used to be.

QUESTION: At times investors are weary about coming to Nigeria because of publications in the media about widespread corruption. They want to be sure who they are dealing with. But, here in Nigeria, company registries are not open, beyond checking for company names. You cannot see officially who are the owners, or even beneficial owners of these companies, even where you are interested in investing in these companies. How is this difficult to make this information available online, so that you don’t have to pay lawyers to do and avoid other bottlenecks?

YEWANDE SADIKU: Investing in an existing company in Nigeria and doing due diligence in them, in my view, has never been a problem. Getting information from CAC, which is a public registry, may not be possible to access online, but that information is accessible.
In the old days, you send a lawyer to CAC to do company filings, pay the required fees, and make the disclosures. If you want to invest in a private company, perhaps the standards are different. But, you cannot invest in a private company without engaging the company, because the owners of the company have a right to decide who they want to invite to invest in their company.

But, for public companies, getting information may not be available online. It is certainly possible to get it, because CAC is a public registry of public records. You have some information about the company. But, what I am saying to you is that the problem does not lie in making the information about companies available online. If you are interested in investing in a company, unless the company does not need the funding, the two of you can sign an agreement and all information that you want would be given to you. It is called due diligence.

A deal has never been stopped by people not being able to do due diligence. What prevents investors more are government policies. That is what investors complain about more, not the ability to get due diligence. If somebody wants to make an investment and the company wants it, the company will provide the information. It is called due diligence. And we do it all the time. I am not suggesting that it cannot be improved upon. I am saying that I am not aware that is what prevents investments from coming to Nigeria.

QUESTION: The concern is about being more open and transparent in information sharing.

YEWANDE SADIKU: There have been improvements in openness and transparency. In particular, I will quote the work of the Nigerian Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (NEITI) in the extractive industries, where insights into beneficial holding in companies are more difficult to get.

Of course, the interests that play there are different from small and regular companies. But, the reforms and the work at NEITI have done recently means there is greater openness to that information now than there was ever before. But, it is not general across all sectors.

QUESTION: Talk to us about special economic zones as a strategy for investment promotion in the country.

YEWANDE SADIKU: Special Economic Zones have been used in many countries to create oasis of near perfection in a place where every, or many things do not work. In Nigeria, there are a number of economic zones that were created for just that objective. There is an agency, the Nigeria Export Processing Zones Authority (NEPZA), that is specifically focused on special economic zones and managing investments there.

But, special economic zones or industrial parks are platforms that are useful for aggregating like industries, encouraging the deepening of the value chain, providing facilities, infrastructure and government support they will all require for that sub-sector to operate successfully and flourish. I believe special economic zones are veritable means of achieving investment promotion.

QUESTION: But, is NIPC exploring the prospects of partnering with NEPZA in the work you are doing to attract investment to those zones?

YEWANDE SADIKU: There are a multitude of government agencies that serve different aspects of the value chain. For instance, SMEDAN (Small and medium Enterprises Development Agency) covers the small and medium scale enterprises. NEPZA covers the special economic zones. There is plenty of work to be done. There is no need for many of us to crowd on top of each other. NIPC and NEPZA discuss ideas on investment promotion all the time. We have a close relationship between us. It does not change the fact we work to achieve different objectives, although similar, but somehow different.

QUESTION: The issue of tax incentives to prospective investors is one area of concern for investment promotion. Some criticise the pioneer status initiative as a policy that saw the government lose more money through waivers and tax holidays than the benefits derived. What do you think?

YEWANDE SADIKU: First, I take special exception to tax incentives or pioneer status being lumped together with waivers. They are two completely different things. By definition, waiver sounds like a subject to some discretion. But, for pioneer status, there is a whole lot of guidelines for processing, and a list of sectors that qualify for it. That list is not subject to discretion. It is never arbitrary. The Ministry of Industry, Trade and Investment publishes the guidelines for undertaking pioneer status.

So, it is not a waiver. It is an incentive. NIPC processes pioneer status applications based on the delegated authority of the Minister in full recognition of the responsibility placed on it. Every quarter, since the third quarter of 2017, NIPC publishes a report of all the applications for pioneer status, the beneficiaries, those approved for, and what the approval was for. On a quarterly basis, we made public all information provided by the applicants since the third quarter of 2017.

We are also working on a document to guide the government and help it with better quality decision making. This will help us understand what pioneer status incentive has cost over the last three years, relative to the objectives.

It is difficult to say casually that the pioneer status initiative has not achieved the objective. When an incentive that allows a business to survive is given, and that business has an opportunity to carry on for decades, it is the equivalent of a child being sent to school. When the child was sent to school, somebody could have asked the parents why they were wasting money on sending the child to school, and not start working immediately. It was because it was recognized that at that time that investment would yield more than having the child start working immediately.

Nevertheless, I don’t believe the government can afford to use tax incentives only to generate investments. You need a multitude of methods to generate investments because there is a cost attached to it. You can have regulatory incentives, in the form of improvement in the business environment by having a faster processing regime that has a time value impact that would be valuable to investors.

The NIPC is working now with the National Bureau of Statistics to undertake a survey to know the best levers investors would like the government to pull, given the effect of COVID-19 on the investment climate.

QUESTION: But, the concern has been a situation where the NIPC does all the assessment based on the guidelines and come to the conclusion that a company does not qualify to be granted the pioneer status, and the federal government goes ahead to override such a decision and still grant the pioneer status.

YEWANDE SADIKU: Such decisions are based on what the law provides for. The definition of pioneer by law is that it is not at a sufficient level for Nigeria’s economic development, or not at all. Again, that there are favourable prospects for that sector, and the President deems it in the public interest to be so.

So, it is not that the federal government grants pioneer status. But, the power to determine a beneficiary lies in the President. What NIPC does is based on a delegated authority. So, if NIPC processes applications for pioneer status based on the guidelines provided in law, it is covered in law. If the President exercises the powers vested in him by law, it is also covered in law.

QUESTION: That is where the problem is. Allowing the power of an individual to exercise discretion that overrides the authority vested in an institution by law to exercise responsibility.

YEWANDE SADIKU: But, the President is exercising the power granted him by law. How can we stop him from exercising the power he has in law? The law did not give NIPC the power to process. NIPC is doing so on a delegated authority basis that the President says: Help me process this application on my behalf.

QUESTION: The point is, if you process and come up with a recommendation that a particular company is not qualified to be granted pioneer status, why would the President go ahead to grant the company?

YEWANDE SADIKU: The President is doing what the law gives him the power to. I assume that every decision the President takes is based on advice. And if the President has the power to take such a decision, why not, because NIPC itself is operating on the basis of a delegated authority. In that case, one cannot question the President exercising the powers he has in law.

QUESTION: Next year, your tenure will come to an end. Between now and then, talk to us about the significant legacies you are looking at.

YEWANDE SADIKU: What I consider the appropriate legacy in NIPC is building a quality foundation for investment and capacity. For me, this is a big part of what I will call a legacy in NIPC. I don’t know of anybody who has worked in a government agency long enough for that agency, after the person leaves, to be completely transformed irreversibly. But, if you build a capacity of the staff to do that work for which they came to the institution, the probability of the seed the person sowed lasting longer is more there.

In the NIPC website, the quality of the reports there, like the Pioneer Status Report published on a quarterly basis, Investment Announcements published since 2017, and the work we are doing articulating the cost of pioneer status, the “Book of States”, Compendium of Incentives, review of Nigeria’s bilateral investment agreements, and the amendments as well as the renegotiation of the agreements with many countries, are important elements of those legacies.

One important thing I would like to do is to use technology to better support NIPC’s work on pioneer status, one-stop investment centre, and reports we generate. My vision for NIPC is that going to speak at an event is useful. But, this has never, and will never generate for any country the kind of foreign direct investment, or domestic direct investment they need.

What will generate investments is when NIPC gets to a level where it can sit with an investor and target ourselves. We should be able to say to an investor, we want you to come and invest in Nigeria; we want to come with the governor of state or a senior government official to sit with you and answer a million questions you will ask.

You don’t have that quality interaction at an investor engagement. If you are lucky, they will give you one hour to speak. If you are not lucky, they will give you five minutes. How can you convince somebody in five minutes to put their hands in the pocket and make a multi-million dollar investment? It is unlikely that you will be taken seriously.

But, when you have the luxury of sitting with people and they ask you really difficult questions; the ones you can answer, you answer; the ones you cannot answer, you tell them you will come back to them with the information they need. Or you provide them with sufficient comfort that they can find a way to mitigate the challenges. We will never go to an investor and pretend that investing in Nigeria does not have its challenges. That is why there is a risk-reward paradigm.

The greater the risks, the higher the reward you expect. The investors understand the risks and can plan how to mitigate them. We want to be in a position to provide investors with greater comfort to make better informed investment decisions in Nigeria.

Again, we want to continue to work with our fellow government agencies to address the challenges investors face. What this means is that there is a lot more work to do.

QUESTION: But, recently NIPC was returning some billions you generated to the government. If there is so much to do, why are you not ploughing back that money to the work?

YEWANDE SADIKU: In NIPC, there is a lot of incredible discipline around government expenditure. When we prepare a budget, we generate a certain amount of revenue and spend a certain amount. If you generate excess, there is a process for getting permission to spend the surplus. Otherwise, there will be complete indiscipline.

NIPC, by nature, is not a revenue-generating agency. But, where we generate more revenue than we have approval to spend, we have a responsibility to refund what is excess to the government.

QUESTION: Is that what has been happening over the years? Or you just want to be different?

YEWANDE SADIKU: Three years before I joined NIPC, the revenue generation was very poor. In 2015, NIPC generated N320 million. In 2016, NIPC generated N290million; N29million in 2017, and N5.5billion in 2018.

Even if we used some of the monies to fix some institutional gaps, there is a fair quantum to return to government. I believe that year we returned about N1.3billion to the government.

In 2019, we generated less than the budget. But, also spent materially less than we budgeted. During the year, we returned more than N100milllion to the government.
In 2020, our full year’s budget was N1.5billion. By the end of September, we generated N2.9billion, a lot more than was budgeted. We have an approved budget expenditure of N1.1 billion. We cannot spend more than that.

For us to spend more than that, we would have to go through some process of approval. So, we have returned in excess of N1.5billion this year. But, for me, it is the responsible thing to do when agencies of government return revenues they generate in excess of their budget. We should not encourage government agencies to keep the excess revenue in excess of their budgets, just because they have things to do.

Some of the things government agencies require for their work are related to finance, while others are not. The support of other government agencies is not related to financing.
In NIPC, discussions about investments are intellectual, in the realm of policy advocacy that does not require funding to do. But, we need funding to build an IT system, to strengthen our IT infrastructure.

But, the prudence the business of government requires also means that you cannot just generate money, sit down and decide to spend. You have to go through some approval processes.

QUESTION: NIPC workers protested recently against your management. Could it be that they were aware you were busy returning excess revenues to the government while their welfare issues were unresolved?

YEWANDE SADIKU: No! There were some allowances approved by the NIPC Council in 2018. When those allowances were approved, they were approved in line with the provisions in the NIPC Act, and implemented immediately.

It was found in late 2019 that those allowances required the clearance of the National Salaries, Incomes Wages Commission before implementation. There should have been another layer of approval that was received after the NIPC Council approval.

We started the process of getting that approval. That was what caused the conflict, because people did not like the fact that something they have been benefiting from in the past was just stopped. But, it stopped, because we realized that there was the approval of another government agency was required.

QUESTION: So, has the matter been settled now?

YEWANDE SADIKU: Well, the matter is still in the process of being resolved.

QUESTION: People say the NIPC has done very well in freedom of information (FOI) compliance, and that you want to improve upon what you have done. Why is that important to you?

YEWANDE SADIKU: Everything I have set out to do in NIPC is important. The difference between FOI and others is that somebody is actually measuring FOI. If somebody was measuring the quality of NIPC reports, they would also see that year on year, we try to improve on their quality. But, in improving on the quality of the FOI is important to me, because it speaks to disclosure, compliance and transparency.

In engaging with investors, the important elements of what investors value is that the manner in which you conduct your own affairs gives them a sense of how you will do if you are facilitating investments for them.

It gives them a sense of how you will manage that engagement with them. That’s why I consider that important. But, it is just one matrix that is measured. It is not the only thing the NIPC tries to actively improve on. Even things that do not speak to investors, like staff welfare. If I want the same set of people to do a better quality work, I have an obligation to improve their welfare and training as an incentive for quality service. Nobody is measuring that.

But, FOI, because it is an Act, and the society is interested in government disclosures, and civil society measures it, that is what makes it important to me. The other reason as a tax-paying Nigerian, sitting in the outside looking inside, and expecting government agencies to make disclosures, I cannot be in charge of a government agency and not be making the same disclosures I thought from the outside government agencies should be doing.

It is the same way that the mandate that the NIPC was set up to do, is the same way I feel about the quality we bring to it by doing it the way we should have expected to do if we were not working for the government. It’s a training I learned from investment banking.

Here are the average Prices of Petrol, Diesel, Kerosene and Cooking Gas for October 2020

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The average price paid by consumers for premium motor spirit (petrol) increased by 10.79% year-on-year and month-on-month by 0.07% to N161.17 in October 2020 from N161.06 in September 2020.

States with the highest average price of premium motor spirit (petrol) were Kebbi (N166.50), Yobe (N163.58) and Anambra (N163.00).

States with the lowest average price of premium motor spirit (petrol) were Niger (N158.38), Sokoto (N158.57) and Delta (N159.38).

Here are the average Prices of Petrol, Diesel, Kerosene and Cooking Gas for October 2020

The average price paid by consumers for Automotive Gas Oil (diesel) increased by 0.05% month-on-month and decreased by -2.83% year-on-year to N219.80 in October 2020 from to N219.68 in September 2020.

States with the highest average price of diesel were Borno (N255.43), Katsina (N249.29) and Kebbi (N247.14).

States with the lowest average price of diesel were Kwara (N173.25), Anambra (N193.33) and Oyo (N198.53).

Average price per litre paid by consumers for National Household Kerosene increased by 1.42% month-on-month and by 8.69% year-on-year to N352.93 in October 2020 from N347.98 in September 2020.

States with the highest average price per litre of kerosene were Taraba (N437.50), Ebonyi (N423.81) and Benue (N410.00).

States with the lowest average price per litre of kerosene were Bayelsa (N230.95), Rivers (N285.19) and Oyo (N310.00).

Similarly, the average price per gallon paid by consumers for National Household Kerosene increased by 0.27% month-on-month and by 1.91% year-on-year to N1,233.00 in October 2020 from N1,229.66 in September 2020.

States with the highest average price per gallon of kerosene were Katsina (N1,369.23), Jigawa (N1,360.71) and Enugu (N1,359.44).

States with the lowest average price per gallon of kerosene were Delta (N978.71), Osun (N1,005.42) and Ogun (N1,078.75).

The average price for the refilling of a 5kg cylinder for Liquefied Petroleum Gas (Cooking Gas) decreased by -1.06% month-on-month and by -0.70% year-on-year to N1,953.71 in October 2020 from N1974.67 in September 2020.

States with the highest average price for the refilling of a 5kg cylinder for Liquefied Petroleum Gas (Cooking Gas) were Bauchi (N2,487.83), Borno (N2,392.77) and Adamawa (N2,367.80).

States with the lowest average price for the refilling of a 5kg cylinder for Liquefied Petroleum Gas (Cooking Gas) were Enugu (N1,611.11), Jigawa (N1,678.57) and Imo (N1,693.75).

Similarly, the average price for the refilling of a 12.5kg cylinder for Liquefied Petroleum Gas (Cooking Gas) decreased by -0.78% month-on-month and by -0.64% year-on-year to N4,078.65 in October 2020 from N4,110.92 in September 2020.

States with the highest average price for the refilling of a 12.5kg cylinder for Liquefied Petroleum Gas (Cooking Gas) were Cross River (N4,598.50), Akwa Ibom (N4,562.50) and Anambra (N4,503.14).

States with the lowest average price for the refilling of a 12.5kg cylinder for Liquefied Petroleum Gas (Cooking Gas) were Kano (N3,560.00), Oyo (N3,638.46) and Zamfara (N3,700.00).

COVID-19 Response Drives $15 Trillion Surge In Global Debt, Set To Hit 365% of GDP By End Of 2020

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The global response to the COVID-19 has driven a $15 trillion surge in debt since 2019, hitting a new record of over $272 trillion in Q3 2020. As the fiscal response to the pandemic continues, we expect global debt to hit $277 trillion (365% of GDP) by end-2020.

Global debt on track to exceed $277 trillion in 2020:

Spurred by a sharp rise in government and corporate borrowing as the COVID-19 pandemic wears on, the global debt load increased by $15 trillion in the first three quarters of 2020 and now stands above $272 trillion. With little sign of a slowdown in debt issuance, we estimate that global debt will smash through records to hit $277 trillion by the end of the year (Chart 1).

Chart 1: Global debt topped $272 trillion in Q3 2020

COVID-19 Response Drives $15 Trillion Surge In Global Debt, Set To Hit 365% of GDP By End Of 2020
Source: IIF, BIS, IMF, National sources

Debt ratios should stabilize after a sharp surge in 2020:

Following a record surge in global debt-to-GDP (from 320% to around 362% in H1 2020), the rise in Q3 2020 was more modest, at less than 2 percentage points—helped by the strong global recovery. We expect that the global debt-to-GDP ratio will reach some 365% of GDP in 2020.

COVID-19 Response Drives $15 Trillion Surge In Global Debt, Set To Hit 365% of GDP By End Of 2020

Debt in mature markets surpassed 432% of GDP in Q3 2020, up by over 50 percentage points from 2019. The U.S. accounted for nearly half of the rise, with total debt on track to hit $80 trillion in 2020—up from $71 trillion in 2019. Most of the rise was in the general government (up to $3.7tn) and non-financial corporate sectors (up to $1.7tn).

In the Euro Area, a $1.5 trillion rise in government debt pushed total debt over $53 trillion in Q3 2020 (though this is still below the all-time high of $55 trillion in Q2 2014). Debt in other mature markets rose by over $3.7 trillion to $65 trillion in the first three quarters of 2020.

Emerging market debt fast approaching 250% of GDP: EM debt rose from 222% of GDP in Q4 2019 to over 248% of GDP in Q3 2020. The dollar amount of EM debt now surpasses $76 trillion, with the rise, was driven by a surge in non-financial corporate debt in China. Excluding China, the USD value of EM debt declined from $31 trillion in Q4 2019 to $29.3 trillion in Q3 2020, largely reflecting losses in EM currencies against the USD.

Debt outside the financial sector hit $206 trillion in Q3 2020, up from $194 trillion in 2019. Governments ac- counted for 60% of the $12 trillion buildups in the world’s debt pile (ex-financials). Global non-financial corporate debt rose by over $4.3 trillion to a fresh high of near $80 trillion, while household debt rose by $500 billion, to near $50 trillion.

Canada, Japan and the U.S. have seen the biggest increases in non-financial sector debt this year, with the rise in debt-to-GDP ratios varying from 45 percentage points in the U.S. to over 75 percentage points in Canada (Chart 2). Across mature markets, government debt has again been the main driver of the rise, increasing the most in Canada, Japan, the U.S., the UK and Spain. Of note, Ireland is the only country in our sample to see a decline in the total debt ratio, as de- clines in household and non-financial corporate debt offset the rise in government debt.

Lebanon, China, Malaysia and Turkey have seen the biggest increases in non-financial sector debt ratios since 2019 among EMs (Chart 3). While sharp economic contractions drove surging debt ratios in many cases (notably in Lebanon), the USD value of debt also rose sharply in China, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the Philippines, and Turkey over the first three quarters of 2020. The rise in non-financial corporate debt in China—from 150% of GDP in Q3 2019 to over 165% in Q3 2020–has been striking. We estimate that China’s total debt-to-GDP topped 335% of GDP—vs 200% of GDP in 2011 (Chart 4).

Rising debt service burdens for emerging markets:

Largely reflecting the massive monetary policy response to the pandemic, corporate borrowers have been able to lock in lower funding costs at longer-than-average maturities. With short-term debt securities accounting for over 45% of total issuance in mature markets (Chart 5), lower policy rates have also slashed borrowing costs for governments—a big benefit given widespread COVID-related revenue losses.

In emerging markets, however, these revenue losses have made debt service burden much more onerous—despite the benefit from lower borrowing costs (Chart 6). We estimate that some $7 trillion of EM debt will come due through end-2021, with USD-denominated debt representing 15% of the total.

Beyond 2020:

The pace of global debt accumulation has been unprecedented since 2016, increasing by over $52 trillion. While some $15 trillion of this surge has been recorded in 2020 amid the COVID-19 pandemic, the debt build-up over the past four years has far outstripped the $6 trillion rise over the previous four years and over an earlier comparable period (Chart 7).

As a result, there is significant uncertainty about how the global economy can deleverage in the future without significant adverse implications for economic activity. The next decade could bring a reflationary fiscal response, in sharp contrast to the austerity bias in the 2010s.

If the global debt pile continues to grow at the average pace of the last 15 years, our back-of-the-envelope estimates suggest that global debt could exceed $360 trillion by 2030-over $85 trillion higher than current levels (Chart 8).

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Royal Mail shares surge to two-year high on improved revenue guidance

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Royal Mail shares are trading 6% higher in afternoon stock trading activity in London at 303p per share after the company boosted its revenue guidance for the year.

Royal Mail shares surge to two-year high on improved revenue guidance

This upped guidance came as part of the release of the firm’s interim report covering the first half of its fiscal year, where the management highlighted that a second wave of lockdowns in the UK has once again prompted a spike in online shopping, which benefits Royal Mail’s parcel shipping business.

The company now expects to see revenues growing between £380 million and £580 million by the end of its fiscal year, which is a significant improvement compared to an initial forecast given to investors in September that anticipated a jump in revenues between £75 and £150 million for the same period.

Meanwhile, Royal Mail (RMG) has also said that operating profits for its UK operations could break-even if the top boundary of this renewed revenue estimate is reached.

Revenues during the six months ended on 27 September landed at £5.67 billion, which represents a 9.8% jump compared to the same period last year. However, operating profits declined by as much as 133% compared to the first half of 2019 as a result of higher restructuring charges and one-off COVID-related costs.

As part of the firm’s effort to cope with the increased volumes that will come from higher online holiday shopping, Royal Mail has announced a plan to hire around 33,000 extra workers. However, the management remains cautious in regards to the implementation of this plan, as they still see significant uncertainty about how this important period of the year will play out amid the pandemic.

Royal Mail is also still struggling to restructure its operations to deal with a shift from letters to parcel amid this online shopping boom, with the company expecting to see higher “mix change” costs of around £210 million by the end of the fiscal year.

How have Royal Mail shares performed this year?

Royal Mail shares have delivered a 35% gain since the year started as the company managed to reverse a downtrend it saw since its 260p December 2019 peak.

This reversal was aided by a boom in online shopping during pandemic lockdowns as consumers were forced to buy goods online while confined in their homes.

Meanwhile, a resurgence of the virus in the UK, and the restrictions that came with it, have once again influenced higher levels of online shopping recently, creating a potential year-long positive momentum for Royal Mail’s parcel business.

That said, the firm still needs to address its union issues, which are related to the company’s restructuring efforts amid a decrease in its legacy letter business.

What’s next for Royal Mail share price?

Royal Mail shares surge to two-year high on improved revenue guidance

The daily chart above shows that Royal Mail shares have managed to surge to their highest levels since the early 2019s on the back of this pandemic tailwind.

The price action this year ended up reversing its downward course as a resulting of the online shopping boom, while in September the price rose above the price channel highlighted in the chart – finding support at the upper trend line only a few days after and bouncing off that level strongly until now.

Given this strong technical foundation, today’s move reinforces a bullish short-term outlook for Royal Mail shares although the rally could take a brief pause as multiple indicators are already flashing overbought signals.

After that, investors should expect a continuation of this uptrend in the following weeks, with a potential first target set at the 350p level – which represents a 14.8% upside based on today’s price.

Meanwhile, the median price target for Royal Mail stock according to the 13 analysts surveyed by the Financial Times sits at 300p per share, with the highest estimate standing at 400p and the lowest at 105p per share.