5G mobile subscriptions to reach 2.8 billion at 55% coverage rate by 2025

Esan Bolaji
-
0
5G mobile subscriptions to reach 2.8 billion at 55% coverage rate by 2025

The fifth-generation (5G) revolution is on course with different leading players setting up the relevant infrastructure. With the promise of faster speeds and lower latency, the number of 5G mobile subscriptions is projected to keep rising in the next few years.

Data presented by Buy Shares indicates that in 2025, the global 5G mobile subscriptions will hit approximately 2.79 billion, accounting for about 35.8% of the current world population. From the data, the North East Asia region will lead the way by about 1.3 billion subscriptions. The 2025 subscriptions represent a percentage growth of 3,391.25% from the 80 million subscriptions recorded in 2020.

5G mobile subscriptions
5G mobile subscriptions to reach 2.8 billion at 55% coverage rate by 2025 | Brand Spur

Next year, 5G mobile subscriptions will stand at about 243 million, a growth of 203.75% from the 2020 figures. In 2022, there will be an estimated 680 million 5G mobile subscriptions. The 2022 subscriptions are projected to grow by 456.8% and hit 1.3 billion in 2023. The accelerated uptake of the 5G mobile networks will continue in 2024 with 1.9 billion subscriptions.

The research further overviewed the global mobile coverage rate by different technologies between 2011 and 2025. The data shows an increase in coverage for both the 5G and LTE technology. In 2011, the LTE network coverage rate was 5% globally while in 2020, the coverage is at 83%. By 2025, the LTE coverage is expected to be 91%.

Elsewhere, the 5G network coverage rate stands at 7% in 2020, and it’s projected to hit 55% by 2025. Notably, the coverage rate for all 3GPP cellular networks has been dominantly high from 2011 when it stood at 87%. In 2020, the coverage rate for the 3GPP cellular network is 95%, a rate the will remain constant for the next five years.

READ ALSO: Harlem Week 2020: Darey To Perform Alongside Stevie Wonder, India Arie, Robin Thicke And More!

Data presented by Buy Shares indicates that in 2025, the global 5G mobile subscriptions will hit approximately 2.79 billion, accounting for about 35.8% of the current world population. From the data, the North East Asia region will lead the way by about 1.3 billion subscriptions. The 2025 subscriptions represent a percentage growth of 3,391.25% from the 80 million subscriptions recorded in 2020.

Next year, the subscriptions will stand at about 243 million, a growth of 203.75% from the 2020 figures. In 2022, there will be an estimated 680 million 5G mobile subscriptions. The 2022 subscriptions are projected to grow by 456.8% and hit 1.3 billion in 2023. The accelerated uptake of the 5G mobile networks will continue in 2024 with 1.9 billion subscriptions.

The research further overviewed the global mobile coverage rate by different technologies between 2011 and 2025. The data shows an increase in coverage for both the 5G and LTE technology. In 2011, the LTE network coverage rate was 5% globally while in 2020, the coverage is at 83%. By 2025, the LTE coverage is expected to be 91%.

Elsewhere, the 5G network coverage rate stands at 7% in 2020, and it’s projected to hit 55% by 2025. Notably, the coverage rate for all 3GPP cellular networks has been dominantly high from 2011 when it stood at 87%. In 2020, the coverage rate for the 3GPP cellular network is 95%, a rate the will remain constant for the next five years.

Drivers for 5G growth

From the data, the North East Asia region is expected to be the hub of the 5G network controlling almost half of the subscriptions globally. Over recent years, the region has undergone a rapid migration in mobile broadband networks and smartphones setting the perfect ground for 5G adoption. In general, the 5G network is likely to be adopted in areas that had embraced the latest technologies like 4G.

The 5G network has been touted to be a game-changer compared to previous generations of cellular networks like the 3G and LTE/4G). 5G mobile technology promises a ten-fold increase in data transmission rates compared to current networks. The capability will be made possible through a higher transmission frequency.

5G differs since its mains focus lies on machine-type communication enabling the Internet of Things (IoT). The capabilities of 5G thus extend well beyond mobile broadband with increasing data rates. With the much-hyped network, the combination of speed, responsiveness, and reach has the potential to unlock the full capabilities of other trends in technology. The network will play a vital role in enhancing the full capability of self-driving cars, drones, virtual reality, and the internet of things.

Hurdles to 5G adoption

Although 2020 has witnessed a significant number of 5G mobile subscriptions, the network’s impact might not be fully felt this year. The main hurdle to rolling out the 5G infrastructures lies in the costs. The cost of setting up frameworks to back faster data is high. It is worth mentioning that the current telecom infrastructure must be upgraded and expanded. Some telecom companies might take time to set up the infrastructure considering that they don’t plan to monetize the technology.

Access to the spectrum is also another major challenge to the adoption of the network. 5G requires access to several spectrum bands with different attributes. Spectrum is the radio waves allocated to mobile operators to transmit data. Limited access to different spectrum bands in different locations might slow down the uptake.

Several manufacturers are already producing 5G smartphones but the sales are expected to remain moderate this year. The slow sales will be due to the high cost and lack of network coverage at a national level in most regions.

The growth of 5G technology appears to be moving ahead despite existing concerns mainly from the health perspective. According to critics, the technology has links to certain types of cancer but no concrete evidence has been presented to support the concern. With the emergence of the 5G network, there was a massive international review for relevant radiation safety protocols.

BRAND SPUR

Harlem Week 2020: Darey To Perform Alongside Stevie Wonder, India Arie, Robin Thicke And More!

Esan Bolaji
-
0
Harlem Week 2020: Darey To Perform Alongside Stevie Wonder, India Arie, Robin Thicke And More!

At the Harlem Week 2020, Darey will be joining superstars like Stevie Wonder, Indie Arie, Robin Thicke, Anthony Hamilton and more for a special performance at the Music Festival.

This special performance is coming off the release of his new single, Jah Guide Me and we are looking forward to seeing the award-winning multi-platinum ‘Afro & B’ artist perform the new song, for the very first time.

As a seasoned live performer, Darey has shared the stage with other superstars like Beyoncé, Wizkid, Jay Z, Ciara, Cardi B, Burna Boy, Sean Paul, Usher, R Kelly, Akon, Lionel Richie and many more and we can’t wait to see him perform alongside the amazing acts at the Harlem Week Musical Festival, today.

Harlem Week is an annual celebration of the best of Harlem which works to promote its rich African American, African, Caribbean, Hispanic, and European history, as well as arts, culture, religion, business, entertainment, and sports.

Considering the times, Harlem Week is holding virtually this year so you get the chance to not only see Darey deliver a special performance, but you also have the opportunity to experience other well-known music sensations like Stevie Wonder, Robin Thicke and many more from the comfort of your home.

The Harlem Music Festival will be aired live by 3:00 pm. To find out more about the event, check out the harlemweek.com.

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Public Cloud Hosting: US accounts for 47% of all global revenue in 2020

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Lekoil Appoints SP Angel as its Joint Broker

LEKOIL, the oil and gas exploration and production company with a focus on Nigeria and West Africa, announces today that it has appointed SP Angel Corporate Finance LLP to act as the Company’s Joint Broker with immediate effect.

Nigeria’s GDP slumps as expected

Nigeria’s Q2 GDP performance was released this morning, with GDP down 6.10% year-on-year and non-oil GDP down 6.05% y/y. This was not a surprise (although one forecast poll predicted a 4.05% decline), given that in June the World Bank forecast a 3.2% contraction and the IMF forecast a 5.4% contraction for full-year 2020, suggesting that some poor quarters lay ahead.

Bond Yields Push Higher As GDP Weakens By 6.10% YoY

The FGN bonds market opened the week to the news of negative growth for Nigeria’s GDP (-6.10% YoY). This compounded an already weak market, still reeling from the previous week’s primary auction. We noted offers across the benchmark curve all session, but with no matching bids as investors continue to sit on the sidelines. Even offers at the long-end at 10.00% levels were not seen as enticing enough to bring client demand. Consequently, yields expanded by c.25bps on the average across the bond curve.

Nigeria Agriculture Sector GDP: Still resilient amid COVID-19?

Yesterday, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released Nigeria’s GDP report for Q2-2020. According to the report, the Agriculture sector which contributes c. 25.0% to real GDP was one of the 6 of 19 sectors to record y/y growth in Q2-2020. This was as the sector’s GDP growth slowed to 1.58% y/y in Q2-2020 (vs. 1.8% and 2.2% recorded in Q2-2019 and Q1-2020, respectively).

Insider Dealing: Eterna’s CEO designate increases stake in Eternal Plc

Nnamdi Obiagwu, Executive Director/Chief Operating Officer – (CEO Designate effective 1st September 2020) of Eterna Plc, has acquired 200,000 shares (N1.90 per share) of the company in accordance with the Nigerian Stock Exchange policy on insider dealing.

Global Security Culture Report: It’s not the technology that secures the organisation, it’s its people

Esan Bolaji
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0
Global Security Culture Report: It’s not the technology that secures the organisation, it’s its people

The 2020 Global Security Culture Report released by KnowBe4 and CLTRe collected data from more than 120,000 employees across 24 countries to find out exactly how deeply security was embedded into the company culture. Or not. South Africa, Kenya, Botswana, Namibia, Zimbabwe, USA, UK, New Zealand, Norway and India were some of the countries included in the survey. The industries included Banking, Financial Services, Insurance, Education, Transport, and Energy and Utilities.

The security report was developed by CLTRe, a research organisation that was acquired by KnowBe4 to enhance its ability to truly understand how organisations were threatened by a lack of information. The overall security culture scores were measured across seven dimensions that included Attitudes, Behaviours, Cognition, Communication, Compliance, Norms and Responsibilities. These were then further analysed against country and industry sector to provide a holistic global security overview. The results? Not what you might expect.

“Asia has the highest security culture score, followed by the United Kingdom,” says Anna Collard, SVP of Content Strategy and Evangelist, KnowBe4 Africa. “The continent of Africa is on par with North America, Australia and New Zealand at 73 and leading ahead of Europe at 69.”

The higher score could be because Africa has leapfrogged legacy issues that plague some of the security environments in Europe. It may also be explained by the fact that about 90% of the African participants are from South African financial institutions. South Africa is a country where security and risk behaviour is ingrained in people’s daily lives and the Financial Services sector is ahead of other sectors when it comes to digital security Attitudes and Behaviours.

“While Africa isn’t quite as compliant as the USA overall, our results show a more positive Attitude, Norms and Behaviour towards securing information. However, where Africa – and the rest of the world – is struggling is in Education. This sector scored particularly badly with Communication policies, Attitudes and Cognition, which is linked to learning. It’s an area that we have to become aware of, as it puts students and educators at risk.”

The recent shift in the world has caused many education institutions to find new footing online and this has made an already shaky sector even more vulnerable. The report emphasises how students and teachers have become even more reliant on technology and need better security protocols and foundations in order to stay secure. This is a wake-up call for education, globally, not just in Africa. It is equally one that should be heard by the Transportation and Energy and Utilities sectors. They too scored very low on the table compared with banking, finance and insurance – all industries that scored better in comparison to the low performers. However, they shouldn’t be too quick to congratulate themselves. For instance, a score of 76, as seen by Banking and by Financial Services, is well below the expected level of 90 or above.

“The question that the report raises is simple – how can the organisation embed secure employee behaviour to minimise the risk and maximise protection?” asks Collard. “The answer is that security has to be management’s responsibility and needs to remain an ongoing priority. A few emails and posters about password hygiene aren’t going to cut it when a phishing email or ransomware breaks loose. And this can happen with just one accidental click of a mouse.”

The report underscored one very important fact – the human element is underserved. The culture of an organisation can significantly affect its security and by understanding the various factors that influence this culture and how it can be remedied, the organisation can significantly change its security. Download the report to find out more.

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CNN launches new series ‘Tech for Good’ showcasing transformational power of technology

Esan Bolaji
-
0
CNN launches new series ‘Tech for Good’ showcasing transformational power of technology

CNN launches a brand new cross-platform series which showcases life-changing technologies that are helping people overcome personal hurdles and take their passions to new heights.

‘Tech For Good’ is a television and digital series which sees CNN anchor and correspondent Kristie Lu Stout share a collection of intimate, inspiring and transformative stories from every corner of the globe.

In the first of four 30-minute shows, CNN meets five incredible artists who have harnessed the power of tech for creative expression.

Kyungho Jeon

Lu Stout first speaks with South Korean percussionist Kyungho Jeon, whose blindness meant his dream of playing in an orchestra initially seemed out of reach. Jeon then co-created the haptic baton, a wearable device that converts movements into vibrations – allowing him to be led by a conductor and perform with an ensemble.

Colleen Flanigan

Based in the coastal town of Santa Cruz, California, artist Colleen Flanigan has seen first-hand the threats facing marine biodiversity. CNN learns how Flanigan has merged her two worlds of art and activism by using the Google Tilt Brush to design reef habitats for endangered organisms. The system allows users to create 3D imagery with a controller that mimics a paintbrush – bringing ideas to life, literally.

Sarah Ezekiel

Assistive technology is a rapidly growing industry. Lu Stout meets Sarah Ezekiel, whose ALS – a condition that has rendered her unable to speak or move – has not stopped her from creating. Ezekiel uses EyeGaze technology from Tobii Dynavox to paint with the movement of her eyes. She shares the artistic processes behind her artworks, and explains how the EyeGaze device has allowed her to take back control of her life.

Chase Burton

For filmmaker Chase Burton, technology has provided a whole new way to experience music. CNN joins him working on a musical score, using a vibrating suit which stimulates parts of his body allowing him to feel, rather than hear the sounds – because Burton is deaf. He describes the technology not as compensatory, but as a gateway to an entirely new, holistic method for appreciating music – for both deaf and hearing audiences.

Finally, ‘Tech for Good’ catches up with Indian YouTube megastar, Gangavva. The farmer’s life was changed by technology when she started appearing in the video series ‘My Village Show’, which propelled her to internet stardom and has since attracted millions of views, subscribers, and generated a steady income for her entire village.

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CBN asks banks to take over electricity bills collection from DisCos

Esan Bolaji
-
0
CBN asks banks to take over electricity bills collection from DisCos

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has asked banks to take responsibility for collecting electricity bill payments.

In a circular dated August 21, Bello Hassan, CBN’s director of banking supervision, said taking over from electricity distribution companies will improve payment discipline in the industry.

“The payment or settlement of all NESI related goods or services shall be made through the Nigerian banking system,” the CBN’s circular read.

“Consequently, all collections for the payments of NESI regulated goods and services provided by a DisCo shall be paid into a designated account such that collections arising from services rendered by the DisCo shall be paid into an account in the sole name of the DisCo; collections arising from services rendered by a third party/parties on behalf of the DisCo shall be paid into an account in the joint name of the DisCo and the third-party vendor(s) 

“All energy and non-energy collections of DisCos, whether cash or cashless, shall only be performed by deposit money banks (DMBs). No entity shall be permitted to collect revenues for DisCos except if that entity is so authorized by a DMB in line with the relevant CBN guidelines for agent banking and agent banking relationships. 

“Therefore, the DMB shall be permitted to authorize its agents to collect energy and non-energy payments on its behalf for any DisCo; the actions or inactions of the agent shall be the responsibility of the authorizing DMB. Any DMB found to be maintaining any account(s) for any entity collecting payments on behalf of any DisCo without appropriate authorization shall have regulatory actions imposed on it.”

CBN also directed that banks providing bank guarantees to Nigeria Bulk Electricity Trading (NBET) Plc and the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) on behalf of DisCos, would take full responsibility for the collections and the remittances of the DisCos to both NBET and TCN.

“For the avoidance of doubt, no DMB is permitted to open or continue to maintain a collection account for a DisCo without the express no-objection of the DMB that guaranteed its exposure to NBET or TCN,” CBN said.

According to the latest quarterly report of the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC), the collection efficiency by the DisCos is low and has continued to adversely impact the financial liquidity of the industry.

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NNPC generates $4.60bn revenue from 19.104bn litres of crude oil, gas export in one year

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The shape of disruption in the retail space: how it works, how to respond to it, and why it matters

You won’t find too many jokes about ‘digital transformation’. It’s a serious business. And if you ask who is doing it, every corporate will raise their hands – but there’s little agreement around exactly what it is, the implications for the organisation, how to go about it. RMB’s recent retail client webinar, featuring Wits’ Prof Brian Armstrong, provided strong direction.

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Digital Ticketing Sales to Grow 150% by 2022, as Passengers Return to Travel

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IITA empowers Ogoni youth on agribusiness for sustainable livelihoods

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MTV Base celebrates leading black women in music with queens of base

Esan Bolaji
-
0
MTV Base celebrates leading black women in music with queens of base

MTV Base has dedicated the month of August to leading black women in music with a specially curated playlist tagged ‘Queens Of Base.

For as long as we can remember, black female musicians across the world have been making remarkable strides in and outside the industry but oftentimes, they don’t get the accolades they deserve. And this is why initiatives like this one are all the more commendable.
In Nigeria, superstars like Tiwa Savage and Yemi Alade have continuously demonstrated that they can go toe to toe with their male counterparts and come out standing tall. They are selling out shows across the world, racking up streaming numbers, performing on global stages alongside some of the biggest international music stars, and just generally being iconic.
Yemi Alade, who won the Peak Talent Show in 2009, is unarguably one of the most popular artistes out of Africa. She was the first female African artiste to hit one million subscribers on Youtube, and up until 2018, her video for ‘Johnny’ was the most viewed music video by a Nigerian musician on YouTube.
Tiwa Savage has also been blazing the trail since she came into the limelight with her debut single, Kele Kele in 2010. From being the first African female ambassador for Pepsi to being the first female artist to win best African act at the MTV Europe Music awards and the first African female artist to sell out London’s Indig02 venue, Tiwa has had a lot of firsts in her career. At 40, the superstar continues to defy norms and prove to millions of women all over the world that it can be done.
Through Queens of Base, MTV Base is further reinforcing the fact that it’s time to give our female superstars the love and attention they deserve.
The playlist which airs on MTV Base (DStv channel 322 and GOtv channel 72) every Saturday in August features big names such as Nigerian superstars Tiwa Savage, Yemi Alade, Teni, and Niniola as well as South African music queens Sho Madjozi, Busiswa and Moonchild among so many others.
International superstars like Beyoncé, whose recently released film, ‘Black Is King’ is still making major waves globally, and ‘Hot Girl Summer’ rapper, Megan Thee Stallion will also be featured in the Queens Of Base playlist.
The ‘Queens Of Base’ playlist will broadcast on MTV Base at 4 PM WAT every Saturday this August.

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NNPC generates $4.60bn revenue from 19.104bn litres of crude oil, gas export in one year

The Nigerian National Oil Organization (NNPC), on Sunday, said it made a sum of $4.60billion from raw petroleum and gas sent out between June 2019 and 2020.

The shape of disruption in the retail space: how it works, how to respond to it, and why it matters

You won’t find too many jokes about ‘digital transformation’. It’s a serious business. And if you ask who is doing it, every corporate will raise their hands – but there’s little agreement around exactly what it is, the implications for the organisation, how to go about it. RMB’s recent retail client webinar, featuring Wits’ Prof Brian Armstrong, provided strong direction.

Nigeria’s GDP Shrinks by 6.10% in Q2 2020 – NBS

Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) decreased by -6.10% year-on-year) in real terms in the second quarter of 2020, ending the 3-year trend of low but positive real growth rates recorded since the 2016/17 recession.

Market Cap of the World`s Five Largest Automobile Manufacturers Plunged by $63bn in 2020

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Public Cloud Hosting: US accounts for 47% of all global revenue in 2020

Esan Bolaji
-
0
Public Cloud Hosting: US accounts for 47% of all global revenue in 2020

Data presented by Buy Shares indicates that in 2020, the United States is set to account for almost half of the public cloud hosting revenue. According to the data, the US will account for 47.21% of the global revenue of $95.47 billion.

5 countries dominate the Public Cloud Hosting sector

The estimates show that the US revenue will be $45.08 billion. China comes a distant second with projected revenue of $5.45 billion or 5.7% of the global share.

Notably, Public Cloud Hosting is dominated by five major countries. The players account for a massive 63.1% of the total global revenue. The remaining part of the world controls a revenue of $35.32 billion.

In the next five years, the revenue from the Public Hosting Sector is set to grow 155.96% to $244.37 billion, from this year’s expected returns. By next year the revenue will stand at $141.41 billion.

The revenue projection comes in the wake of a pandemic that has impacted various sectors.

According to the research report:

“Just like other sectors, the coronavirus crisis had a significant impact on the Information Technology sector. The crisis crippled global economies due to the imposed lockdowns. Under the IT sector, the pandemic has caused disruptions in the electronics value chain posing a risk of product price hikes.

“At the same time, the disruption accelerated remote working culture and focus on evaluating the end-to-end value chain. Amid the health crisis, work environments that can be operated remotely are likely to benefit from cloud technology for a long period.”

Rapidly increasing digital transformation among different industries is expected to spur growth.

Lekoil Appoints SP Angel as its Joint Broker

Esan Bolaji
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0
Lekoil Appoints SP Angel as its Joint Broker

LEKOIL, the oil and gas exploration and production company with a focus on Nigeria and West Africa, announces today that it has appointed SP Angel Corporate Finance LLP to act as the Company’s Joint Broker with immediate effect.

SP Angel is an independent partnership providing creative, capital markets solutions to growing companies.

On July 15, 2020, the company announced the resignation of its previous joint broker Numis Securities Limited due to its exit from the natural resources sector.

In a statement made available to Brand Spur, Lekoil said,

“Following the exit of Numis Securities Limited (“Numis”) from the natural resources sector, Numis will cease to act as the Company’s Joint Broker with immediate effect. The Company intends to appoint a second broker to act alongside Mirabaud Securities Limited in due course and will update the market accordingly.”

SP Angel supports clients with a full range of expertise and services covering ongoing regulatory advice, IPOs and secondary placings, M&A transactions and corporate structuring.

With an established reputation for market reach and successful execution of mandates, SP Angel has a strong track record across many key sectors including, Mining, Oil & Gas, Healthcare, Technology and Special Situations. The long-term client relationships SP Angel develop enable us to partner with its clients to help drive the growth of the businesses through rapidly changing market conditions.

SP Angel is a Member of the London Stock Exchange, an AIM Nominated Adviser and Broker and a NEX Exchange Corporate Adviser and is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA).

LEKOIL’s African activities are centralised through a group holding company structure based in the Cayman Islands.

Pay-As-You-View: Why Nigerians might choose StarTimes over DSTV, GOTV, others

Esan Bolaji
-
0
Pay-As-You-View: Why Nigerians might choose StarTimes over DSTV, GOTV, others

In what seems unrealizable, StarTimes shocks Nigerians with its Pay-As-You-View offer that launched in 2017 with an applaudable review and additional commendable programmes in 2020.

DSTv, a leading Satellite cable TV service from Multichoice in Nigeria and across Africa is still hell-bent on the review of its subscription packages to accommodate the ‘Pay-As-You-View’ offer despite many calling for it and National Assembly threatening to cut off its services in the country.

Recall that as far as Pay-As-You-View? TV subscription is concerned, Nigeria has not benefitted from it until StarTimes full-fledged in 2017, but Uganda and Zambia have longed been enjoying the privilege since 2014.

With yearnings for this offer, here are the reasons why Nigerians might consider StarTimes over DStv or Govt.

1. IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON NIGERIANS

The COVID-19 pandemic that struck in the country hit about 10.8 million average Nigerians and it greatly affected their income. With about 21% of staff retrenchment. This could only mean that many will prefer to cut cost, especially frivolous spending. So, if StarTimes can offer the same service at a more convenient fee, people will definitely shift.

2. ADDITION OF FASCINATING CHANNELS

StarTimes have added some other programmes that DStv and GOtv combined do not have, they are ST School Junior, ST School Senior that will deal with the virtual tutorials on various subjects including Mathematics and English; Human Right that will be featuring programmes on how people can take up cases when injustices arise; Sky News, a few to mention.

3. OFFER THE CHEAPEST BOUQUET 

The cheapest bouquet of DStv is DStv Padi at N1,850 with about 40 channels while that of StarTimes is Nova bouquet for N900 with about 58 channels and can be paid for daily, meaning that one can pay N30 daily to get connected.

4. AFFORDABLE DECODER WITH SAME SERVICE AS OTHERS

Getting a StarTimes decoder plus antenna costs N7,500 while that of DStv with dish receiver is N18,500 and GOtv is N10,799 with antenna and HDMI wires.

The aforementioned facts are particularly pinpointed from customers reactions and are subjected to either happen or not. This is clearly a review or better still, prediction.

HEADLINES YOU MIGHT HAVE MISSED FROM BRAND SPUR

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Nigeria’s GDP slumps as expected

Esan Bolaji
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Nigeria’s GDP slumps as expected

Nigeria’s Q2 GDP performance was released this morning, with GDP down 6.10% year-on-year and non-oil GDP down 6.05% y/y. This was not a surprise (although one forecast poll predicted a 4.05% decline), given that in June the World Bank forecast a 3.2% contraction and the IMF forecast a 5.4% contraction for full-year 2020, suggesting that some poor quarters lay ahead.

After growth of 1.87% y/y in Q1 2020, the Q2 2020 data are consistent with Nigeria experiencing a significant recession in 2020. Q2 was weak and Q3 is likely to be weak, too. Even then, the volatility of some of the moves in GDP sub-sectors (notably Trade and Telecoms) during Q2 was surprising.

There are few occasions when not being an industrialised nation looks like an advantage. One of them is during a global recession when a high proportion of GDP anchored in Agriculture (24.6% of Nigerian GDP) acts as a brake on economic calamity elsewhere.

Nigeria’s economy contracted by 6.1%, year-on-year (y/y), in Q2 2020, but this actually looks good when compared with an industrialised nation like Germany whose economy contracted by 10.1% y/y in Q2; or a services-led economy like the UK whose GDP contracted by 20.4% y/y in Q2; or the USA whose economy is estimated to have contracted by 32.9% y/y in Q2.

The quarterly data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is eagerly awaited by analysts as it provides reliable and long-term data. We tend to concentrate on the top six sectors (Agriculture; Trade; Telecoms; Manufacturing; Oil & Gas; Real Estate) as these account for 76.3% of total GDP, but there is a wealth of other data on industry trends unavailable elsewhere.

As with almost all economies around the world (China is an exception), the scale of the GDP chart must be re-drawn to accommodate the most recent data.

Year-on-Year GDP

GDP slumps as expected Brandspurng
Source: National Bureau of Statistics, Coronation Research

Is there anything surprising?

We were expecting mild and continued growth from the Agricultural sector (24.6% of GDP) and it grew by 1.58% y/y. We were expecting a contraction from Trade (14.3% of GDP) and some growth from Telecoms (also 14.3% of GDP), but the volatility of these sectors surpassed our expectations. Trade fell by 16.59% y/y (a savage correction, presumably exacerbated by the shortage of foreign exchange) while Telecoms grew by 18.10% y/y (far above its trend growth rate, helped by the rise of remote working).

We also thought that Manufacturing (8.8% of GDP) would suffer very badly, but it contracted by 8.78% y/y (rather than the double-digit percentage decrease we expected), suggesting that Manufacturing is either less reliant on imported raw materials than we thought, or that manufacturers were able to use old stocks of supplies. Oil & Gas (8.9% of GDP) fell by 6.63% y/y, again less than we thought but likely reflecting the benefit of selling oil forward at prices available earlier in the year. Real Estate (5.3% of GDP) fell by 21.99%.

What does this mean for Q3?

Despite the easing of lock-down (which we think was not very severe) and government efforts to stimulate the economy (but the government is only a small part of the economy), we think that broadly speaking, these trends will continue.

The NAFEX rate (also known as the I&E window rate and the interbank rate quoted on
Bloomberg) closed at N386/US$1 last week. In the parallel market US dollars were
offered at N477/US$1. The CBN is reported to soon start supplying US dollars to Bureaux
de Change (BDC), though we expect the CBN to guard its US$35.6bn reserve position
carefully. Given reasonably liquidity in the parallel market we only expect slight pressure
on the N477/US$1 rate over the coming weeks.

The price of Brent crude decreased by 1.00% last week to US$44.35/bbl. The average price, year-to-date, is US$42.52/bbl, 32.80% lower than the average of US$64.20/bbl in 2019. Last week, the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee met virtually to discuss compliance with production cuts among member countries.

The need for 100% was stressed by Saudi Arabia in order to compensate for non-compliance in May, June and July. A determined move to control supply suggests that OPEC+ is concerned about downward pressure on prices in the light of renewed fears about global Covid-19 outbreaks.

Such concerns indicate that the market is a little weaker than previously thought. We think that the bounce back towards US$50.00/bbl may be delayed for several weeks if not longer.

CORONATION MERCHANT BANK

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