Headline Inflation Climbs in December on Prolonged Border Closure

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Inflation figures for December 2019 released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Headline inflation advanced by 14 bps to 11.98% as the effects of border closures continue to weigh on food prices.
  • Food inflation rose by 19 bps to print 14.67% YoY (November 2019: 14.48% YoY)
  • Core inflation advanced by 34 bps to 9.33 % YoY (November 2019: 8.99% YoY)
  • Urban inflation rose by 15 bps to 12.62% YoY. Similarly, Rural inflation climbed by 11 bps 11.41% YoY

Increases were recorded in all COICOP divisions that yielded the Headline index.

On a month-on-month basis, the Headline index increased by 0.85 percent in December 2019, this is 0.17 percent rate lower than the rate recorded in November 2019 (1.02) percent.

The percentage change in the average composite CPI for the twelve months period ending December 2019 over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve months period was 11.40 percent, showing 0.05 percent point from 11.35 percent recorded in November 2019.

The urban inflation rate increased by 12.62 percent (year-on-year) in December 2019 from 12.47 percent recorded in November 2019, while the rural inflation rate increased by 11.41 percent in December 2019 from 11.30 percent in November 2019.

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On a month-on-month basis, the urban index rose by 0.90 percent in December 2019, down by 0.17 from 1.07 percent recorded in November 2019, while the rural index also rose by 0.82  percent in December 2019, down by 0.16 from the rate recorded in November 2019 (0.98) percent.

The corresponding twelve-month year-on-year average percentage change for the urban index is 11.83 percent in December 2019. This is higher than 11.75 percent reported in November 2019, while the corresponding rural inflation rate in December 2019 is 11.00 percent compared to 10.98 percent recorded in November 2019.

Food Index

The composite food index rose by 14.67 percent in December 2019 compared to 14.48 percent in November 2019.

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This rise in the food index was caused by increases in prices of Bread and cereals, Meat, Fish, Oils and fats, Potatoes, yam and other tubers.

On a month-on-month basis, the food sub-index increased by 0.97 percent in December 2019, down by 0.28 percent points from 1.25 percent recorded in November 2019.

The average annual rate of change of the Food sub-index for the twelve-month period ending December 2019 over the previous twelve-month average was 13.74 percent, 0.09 percent points from the average annual rate of change recorded in November 2019 (13.65) percent.

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All Items Less Farm Produce

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The “All items less farm produce” or Core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produce stood at 9.33  percent in December 2019, up by 0.34 percent when compared with 8.99 percent recorded in November 2019.

On a month-on-month basis, the core sub-index increased by 0.81 percent in December 2019. This was up by 0.02 percent when compared with 0.79 percent recorded in November 2019.

The highest increases were recorded in prices of Hospital services, Hairdressing salons and personal grooming establishment, Garments, Repair and hire of footwear, Vehicle spare parts, Passenger transport by air, Shoes and other footwear, Appliances, articles and products for personal care, Clothing materials, other articles of clothing and clothing accessories and Cleaning, Repair and hire of clothing,

The average 12-month annual rate of change of the index was 9.15 percent for the twelve-month period ending December 2019; this is 0.04 percent points lower than 9.19 percent recorded in November 2019. 

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State Profiles

In analysing price movements under this section, note that the CPI is weighted by consumption expenditure patterns which differ across states. Accordingly, the weight assigned to a particular food or non-food item may differ from state to state making interstate comparisons of consumption basket inadvisable and potentially misleading.

All Items Inflation

In December 2019, all items inflation on year on year basis was highest in Bauchi (15.14%), Kebbi (14.43%) and Plateau (14.34%), while Katsina (10.68%), Kwara (9.93%) and Abuja (9.77%) recorded the slowest rise in headline Year on Year inflation.

On month on month basis, however, December 2019 all items inflation was highest in Kogi (2.42%), Bauchi (1.98%) and Kaduna (1.81%), while Kwara (0.19%) and Delta (0.08%) recorded the slowest rise on month on month inflation with Edo recording price deflation or negative inflation (general decrease in the general price level or negative inflation rate).

Food Inflation

In December 2019, food inflation on a year on year basis was highest in Sokoto (17.75%), Ogun (17.37%) and Plateau (16.75%), while Bayelsa (13.26%), Delta(12.72%) and Bauchi (12.19%) recorded the slowest rise.

On month on month basis, however, December 2019 food inflation was highest in Kogi (2.82%), Kaduna (2.63%) and Abia(2.21%), while Delta, Edo, Imo and Kwara recorded price deflation or negative inflation (general decrease in the general price level of food or a negative food inflation rate).

Download The consumer price index, (CPI) and Inflation Report

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